Some Suprising Gay Marriage/Civil Union Findings

Today we release results on a series of questions on gay marriage and civil unions in New Jersey from our most recent poll. This is a poll of registered voters, so it cannot be generalize to all adults, but it still gives us a useful look at things. First, and most obviously, the numbers for gay marriage are rather surprising to us. When we last polled on this in November 2009 (with an adult sample), NJ favored gay marriage by a slight margin, 46% to 42%, with 12% don’t know (and, though we didn’t include them, about 2.5% of adults would not answer the question.)

In our new poll of registered voters, support has climbed to 52%. That’s not what it stunning. The surprising number is that only 32% say they oppose, a pretty significant decline not only over 2009, but also much lower than a recent automated poll of landlines by PPP. We also now have more don’t knows, and a larger percentage (about 4%!) refused to answer the question (Again, these are not included in the numbers in the release.)

This could be random chance, or it could be real change. Or it could be more opponents unwilling to tell us how they truly feel on this. This latter point makes sense, since we see some of the largest don’t knows among conservatives and Republicans, who might be expect to oppose gay marriage. Or they may be don’t knows because they are really less sure than they once were.

In some ways, the more interesting part of the poll is our effort to test support for Civil Unions in the context of gay marriage, something that is rarely done. We find even greater support for civil unions – when we phrase it as “Instead of” and “an alternative to” gay marriage. In general, New Jerseyans while expressing support for gay marriage, may well prefer the status quo of legalized civil unions.

Parsing the numbers further we find that about 11% oppose BOTH gay marriage and civil unions and 13% support ONLY gay marriage. That leaves a lot of people in the middle. And most of them support civil unions as an alternative to gay marriage – though 15% don’t know where they stand on this one.

The text of the press release is below. But to really understand the nuances you should read the PDF with all the questions and tables.

MAJORITY OF NEW JERSEYANS FAVORS GAY MARRIAGE BUT SHOWS MORE SUPPORT FOR CIVIL UNIONS AS AN ALTERNATIVE, RUTGERS POLL FINDS

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. – A clear majority of New Jersey voters now supports legalizing gay marriage here, with 52 percent in favor, 32 percent opposed and 16 percent unsure, a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll finds. The margin in support has grown significantly over the past two years. However, given the choice of civil unions instead of gay marriage, even more voters (58 percent) support this alternative.

“We were surprised by the margin favoring gay marriage, which is much greater than previously reported,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers. “While the number of supporters has grown only a little, the number directly opposing gay marriage has fallen significantly. At the same time, more people say they are unsure or refuse to answer the question. These may be voters who are uncomfortable with gay marriage but who don’t want to express direct opposition, suggesting support is not as lopsided as it appears.”

The strong preference for civil unions as an alternative to gay marriage also suggests support for same-sex marriage is not as deep as it appears. More than two-thirds of gay marriage supporters say they support civil unions as an alternative, as do 54 percent of gay marriage opponents and 41 percent of those not sure where they stand on gay marriage.

Results are from a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll of 615 registered voters conducted among both landline and cell phone households from Aug. 9 – 15, with a margin of error for the full sample of +/- 3.9 percentage points

Support for gay marriage in New Jersey

Women are more likely than men to support gay marriage, 58 percent to 47 percent.  Younger voters are supportive, but support declines with age: 77 percent of voters under 30 are in favor, while support declines to only 35 percent of voters over 65.

Support increases as levels of education increase, with 46 percent of those with high school or less, rising to 62 percent of those who have attended graduate school.

Not surprisingly, 61 percent of Democrats (and 58 percent of independents) support gay marriage; 51 percent of Republicans oppose it. Similarly, 83 percent of self-reported “liberals” and 56 percent of “moderates” favor gay marriage. In contrast, 18 percent of conservatives are for gay marriage and 61 percent are opposed.

“We see an interesting pattern, with Republicans and conservatives much more likely to say ‘don’t know’ to the gay marriage question,” noted Redlawsk. “This suggests either some measure of uncertainty and changing attitudes by these voters, or perhaps reluctance to express a negative view in a state known for support of gay rights.”

Catholics show slightly more support for same-sex marriage than Protestants by four percentage points. How frequently respondents attend religious services is a stronger indicator of personal feelings than affiliation. Those who attend at least once a week are least likely to support gay marriage: 25 percent in favor to 60 percent opposed. Support increases with less frequent religious service attendance; 66 percent who attend a religious service once a month or less support gay marriage, while only 19 percent oppose.

New Jerseyans New York’s recent legalization of gay marriage did not affect their views. Only 14 percent of voters said they were more likely to support gay marriage after its legalization in New York, while a large majority – 73 percent – said the new law in New York had no effect on their opinion. Nearly all who were unsure about legalizing gay marriage in New Jersey – a group that might have been influenced by the New York results – also claimed that legalization of gay marriage in New York had no effect on their opinion.

Stronger support for civil unions as an alternative

Almost six-in-10 (58 percent) of respondents strongly support same-sex civil unions as an alternative to gay marriage; 26 percent oppose them. This support runs deep, with a majority within every age group supporting a civil union alternative: 57 percent of 18 to 29 year-olds, 56 percent of 30 to 49 year-olds, 61 percent of 50 to 64 year-olds and 52 percent of those 65 and over. Democrats, Republicans, and independents all support civil unions as an alternative, at 58 percent, 55 percent, and 57 percent, respectively.

“These results suggest that support for gay marriage itself is not as deep or broad as might be assumed by looking at New Jersey polls,” said Redlawsk. “What New Jersey voters do support is legal recognition of same-sex relationships. For many, if not most, civil unions fit the bill just fine as an alternative to gay marriage.”

While a majority of voters support the civil union alternative, those most likely to support gay marriage are also less likely to support civil unions instead. A quarter of gay marriage supporters oppose civil unions as an alternative (14 percent of all New Jersey voters). Democrats, liberals and younger voters are all much more likely to support gay marriage than civil unions. Those with a gay family member are also more likely to prefer same-sex marriage than the civil unions. Republicans, conservatives and older voters are all more likely to prefer civil unions.

“Opposition to civil unions comes from both ends of the spectrum,” said Redlawsk. “For some, any form of legal recognition of same-sex partners is unacceptable. For others, marriage is the only alternative they support. But most New Jerseyans fall in the middle.”

Despite support, gay marriage not an important issue for most

Only 2 percent of voters believe gay marriage is the most important issue the state faces; 13 percent say it is one of a few important issues. In contrast, 36 percent say legalization of gay marriage is only “somewhat important” and 46 percent believe that it is not an important issue at all. These results have changed little from a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll in early November 2009.

This view cuts across all political parties. Only 23 percent of Democrats, 14 percent of independents, and 9 percent of Republicans state that gay marriage is most important or one of a few very important issues.

Supporters of gay marriage are more likely to say it is an important issue: 72 percent see it as at least somewhat important. Opponents are much more likely to see the issue as unimportant, with 61 percent attaching no importance to the issue.

Knowing someone who is gay or lesbian increases support

Many New Jersey voters say they have gay or lesbian family members (32 percent) or friends (66 percent). These respondents are eight points more likely to support gay marriage, while those with a gay family member are 16 percentage points more supportive of gay marriage. Those with a gay family member express less support for civil unions.

Gay marriage, however, is not a top issue even for those close to someone who is gay.  Only 18 percent with a gay or lesbian friend or family member say legalization of gay marriage is the most important issue or one of a few very important issues facing New Jersey today, only slightly more than those without a gay or lesbian friend of family member.

“Most voters are comfortable with the status-quo – legal civil unions – even if they say they support gay marriage,” said Redlawsk. “There seems to be little likelihood of changing the situation in New Jersey.”

A Hurricane Delay; “Millionaire’s Tax”

Well, we had planned to have a release on our (very interesting, I think) numbers of attitudes toward same-sex marriage in New Jersey, but the hurricane intervened. We’re starting to get back to things, and do hope to do that release still this week, so stay tuned.

In the meantime, a small tasty nugget on something else – the ongoing debate over the “millionaire’s tax” in NJ. To recap, at the end of 2009 a surcharge on “high income” earners expired, eliminating some $800,000,000 in revenues for the state budget. Democrats, who could have renewed it with their majority in the legislature and  control of the governor’s office (Gov. Jon Corzine), did not do so, perhaps worried about the election. Then Chris Christie knocked off Corzine, and the tax surcharge did not come up for a vote in the lame duck session before Christie took office. Since then, the Democrats have passed a version of it twice, and the governor has vetoed it both times, saying he refuses to raise taxes on job creators, a standard Republican position these days.

This is one of those issues where polling consistently shows the voting public strongly in favor of the tax (60-70 percent, in fact). So we decided to ask a version of the question again in this most recent poll. What did we find?

Millionaire’s Tax – August 2011

Well, we asked it a little differently this time, giving a choice between the tax and budget cuts. Asked to chose between cutting the state budget or asking high income earners to pay additional taxes, 55 percent say they would prefer a tax increase, 40 percent would rather make cuts to the budget, and 5 percent say they don’t know. Here’s the question (N=615, MoE = +/- 3.9 points):

Democrats say that a tax surcharge on high income residents will allow the state to better fund education and other programs. Governor Christie opposes the tax surcharge saying higher taxes hurt jobs. Which do you prefer: cutting the state budget or asking high income earners to pay additional income tax?

Not surprisingly, Democrats do not want to cut the state budget, and Republicans do. But Independents lean with the Democrats here, preferring the tax by 51 percent to 43 percent.

	Dem	Ind	Rep

Cut State Budget	16%	43%	73%
Tax Surcharge	79%	51%	24%
DK	5%	7%	3%
N=	185	297	113

Back when we asked the question in February 2011 without giving the choice for budget cuts directly, 52 percent of respondents said then that they strongly supported a tax increase, 20 percent somewhat supported a tax increase compared to 12 percent who somewhat opposed and 15 percent who strongly opposed it. That question was:

Last year, Governor Christie vetoed a tax surcharge on incomes of more than $1 million. Now the legislature may try again. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose increasing taxes on very high incomes to help close the budget gap?

It’s worth noting that when we put it that way, some 72 percent support increasing taxes on “very” high income earners. But when we drop the “very” and give the option to cut the budget, the numbers shift a bit, and while a majority still prefers the tax surcharge, the percentage drops significantly.

What can we take away from this? NJ Voters ARE in favor of higher taxes on high income earners, and by a significant margin. But there is a large minority, driven by Republicans, who do not want to reimpose the tax, and would rather cut the budget. Even so, it is fascinating that polling of all kinds continues to show a preference for increased taxes on high income earners, with the question asked in different many ways. But what are the chances it will happen? Exactly none as long as Chris Christie is governor and sticks by his position.

Some numbers on Sen. Menendez as we wait for the hurricane

Well, I know we’re all waiting for the hurricane, but there is little else that I can do at the moment except wait. So it seems like a good time to look at some more data we have in the most recent poll. We had planned to do a press release on same-sex marriage today, but we’re holding off on that now until next week.

Meantime, here are some numbers on Sen. Menendez.

In addition to asking about Gov. Christie and President Obama in our recent poll, we tested Sen. Robert Menendez’s favorables and re-elect numbers. We didn’t do a release on this because frankly we had so much other stuff. But a blog post seems warranted.

Sen. Menendez is up for re-election next year, and while it isn’t clear yet who his likely Republican challenger will be, the general sense from polling over the last year is that he may face a tough fight. Part of it is that his favorable rating has lagged, as many NJ registered voters seem to have little awareness of him. In a late February2011 Rutgers-Eagleton Poll we found that while 34 percent viewed the Senator favorably and only 28 percent were unfavorable, 38 percent had no opinion of him one way or another. And this was an improvement from December 2010, when 44 percent had no opinion (and his rating was 29 favorable, 27 unfavorable).

Now it’s the dog days of August. In our latest poll of 615 registered voters in New Jersey (MoE +/-3.9 points), Menendez is rated 35 percent favorable, 28 percent unfavorable, and 37 percent with no opinion. Almost nothing has changed despite a very unsettled summer in Washington, and rising anger and frustration among voters of all stripes. Does this mean the Senator is actually in better shape because so many have no opinion? It could be.

For perspective, Sen. Frank Lautenberg’s favorables in our newest poll are not much different, though a few more venture an opinion. About 37 percent say they feel favorable, 30 percent are unfavorable, and 33 percent have no opinion. So Menendez is not really doing any worse than Lautenberg in net favorables. Gov. Christie, remember, is at 45 favorable, 47 unfavorable in our poll – very few have no opinion of the Governor.  And Pres. Obama is at 44-44. So a net +7 for Menendez doesn’t look so bad in that light.

How about re-elect? For the first time this cycle we asked if voters would choose to re-elect Sen. Menendez, vote for someone else, or not vote at all. These numbers are tighter: only 32 percent would vote to re-elect and 31 percent would vote for someone else. But of course that leaves a lot of other voters. Nearly 10 percent say they won’t vote, and 27 percent just don’t know. Again, for perspective, both Pres. Obama and Gov. Christie are upside down in voter preference, with 42 percent saying they would vote for the Governor if the 2013 election were today and 47 percent saying they would not. And the President’s numbers are no better: 47 percent say he does not deserve a second term, while 43 percent say he does.

My summary: In this very unsettled political environment where voters seem more than ready to toss out those in charge once again, Menendez may have a small advantage in being less well known. While it means there are lots of voters to influence (from either side) it also means he is not in as quite bad shape as he might be. On the other hand, and worth noting, it’s never a good thing for an incumbent to have only 1/3 of registered voters say they would vote to re-elect you. Clearly the Senator has a lot of work to do, but then again so do the Republicans in identifying a viable challenger. 2012 is likely to be very interesting.

NJ Obama Re-elect; Republican Primary

We’re coming toward the end of the releases on our latest poll. Two more after today – one on attitudes toward same-sex marriage and the other on the burning question of whether New Jersey voters prefer Jersey Corn or Jersey Tomatoes! Stay tuned next week for that one…

Today we add a little more context to Pres. Obama’s deteriorating situation in New Jersey. As we have already discussed, his favorability ratings have declined along with his job performance ratings. Here we also report that the President’s “re-elect” number looks bad as well. When we ask people if he “deserves a second term” only 43 percent say yes, down from 48 percent in February. The no’s are at 47 percent, up from 39 percent six months ago. Why? Well, frustration and anger at Washington, and, I suspect, the economy itself, are fueling this. We have numbers on the first, though not on the economy.

One very small ray of good news from the president’s perspective, I suppose, is that fewer NJ voters say the Obama administration is un-American or Obama is a socialist than last year. As for the Republicans, Rick Perry’s entrance came as we were polling, and we find that while Republicans only only somewhat satisfied with the field as it stands, those we polled after his entry into the race are more satisfied than those we polled beforehand. Still the plurality of NJ Republican voters  can’t name a preference when asked an open ended question, and no one candidate (Romney) gets more than 16 percent. A long way to go until the Republican race settles down. The full text of the press release follows. You can get a PDF of the text and associated tables here.

NEW JERSEY VOTERS: OBAMA DOES NOT DESERVE A SECOND TERM; REPUBLICANS SOMEWHAT SATISFIED WITH CHOICES

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. – Only 43 percent of New Jersey’s registered voters think President Barack Obama deserves to be re-elected in 2012, down from 48 percent in February 2011, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Another 47 percent say Obama does not deserve to be re-elected, up from 39 percent in February. Meanwhile, the state’s Republican voters are not overly enthusiastic about their potential nominees, with only 3 percent “very satisfied,” 56 percent “somewhat satisfied” and 31 percent “not satisfied” with the GOP field.

“The continuing economic climate, coupled with voter frustration at Washington, has created feelings of discontent that are clearly hurting the president’s chances for re-election,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. “The dramatic decline in support for Obama comes mostly from independents. Even so, it doesn’t seem Republicans are particularly happy with their options.”

Results are from a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll of 615 registered voters conducted among both landline and cell phone households from August 9 – 15, with a margin of error for the full sample of +/- 3.9 percentage points.

Independents drive Obama re-election down sharply

While 80 percent of Democrats continue to support Obama, only 7 percent of Republicans want to see him re-elected, half of the 14 percent who said so in February 2011. Independents have turned away from Pres. Obama, with only 33 percent saying he deserves a second term, while 47 percent say the president does not deserve re-election.

About 20 percent of independents want to see the deficit crisis in Washington resolved only using across-the-board budget cuts, and more than three-quarters of them say Obama does not deserve a new term. But so do nearly half of the 42 percent of independents who want both tax increases and cuts.

“Despite his best efforts to find middle ground, the president is losing favor with independent voters here,” noted Redlawsk. “It seems possible this is a direct repudiation of his approach to the debt crisis and the economy. Most independents want at least some tax increases on the rich to help fix the deficit, and many may feel Obama has failed to follow through on his own demands for increased revenues. Given more independents were against rather than for the debt ceiling agreement, this seems one likely reason for Obama’s decline in New Jersey. “

Ambivalent, angry and frustrated voters oppose Obama second term

Support for a second term is strongly related to voters’ impressions of the president; 88 percent with a favorable impression support re-election. The same percentage with an unfavorable view says Obama does not deserve a second term. Among the 12 percent uncertain about the President, 43 percent do not support a second term, compared to 24 percent who do.

Anger and frustration with Washington generally spills over to opposing Obama’s re-election. Large percentages of voters are angry (73 percent) or believe Washington “no longer works” (69 percent). Among these groups, support for a second Obama term is weak: half of those angered by Washington do not support a second term, as do 54 percent of those believing Washington is dysfunctional. Forty percent of angry voters support a second term, but only 37 percent who see Washington as broken agree.

“Most voters are angry and certain Washington doesn’t work. But that anger is not only directed at the president,” Redlawsk said. “We recently showed that more New Jerseyans actually blame Republicans in Congress for the debt ceiling crisis – Tea Party and mainstream – but the anger at Washington spreads well beyond the House and Senate chambers.”

Many Voters say Obama does not understand them

While a slim majority of voters says that “President Obama understands people like me,” 44 percent disagree. Those who say Obama understands them are very supportive of re-election, with 72 percent saying he deserves a new term. Among voters who think Obama does not understand them, a whopping 86 percent say the president should not be returned to office.

“People want the president to show empathy and having nearly half of voters believe Obama does not understand them is a recipe for failure,” said Redlawsk, who noted 18 months ago, only 36 percent thought he was “disconnected from people like me.”

At the same time, voters are less likely to hold more extreme views of the president than in a September 2010 Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, when 25 percent said the administration was “un-American” and 39 percent saw the President as a “socialist.” Only 15 percent now see the administration as un-American, while 29 percent still perceive Obama as a socialist.

Republicans less than completely satisfied with choices

A majority (56 percent) of New Jersey Republicans and GOP-leaning independents report being only “somewhat satisfied” with their choices for a 2012 challenger. Just 3 percent reported being very satisfied; 31 percent are not satisfied with the current field of candidates, and another 10 percent are not sure how they feel.

Asked an open-ended question about their preference, 40 percent of Republican voters could not name any candidate, about the same as in a February poll (42 percent). Among Republicans and leaners, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (16 percent, three points higher than February) and Texas Gov. Rick Perry (14 percent) are essentially tied. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is a distant third at 6 percent, one point higher than Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachman.

“The general sense that Republicans nationwide are still searching for a standard-bearer to take on President Obama is reinforced in New Jersey,” said Redlawsk. “Governor Christie’s numbers say nothing more than Republicans take him at his word that he is not running for president.”

Tea Party Republicans more satisfied, also split between Romney and Perry

Tea Party supporters (52 percent of Republicans) feel differently about their choices than do other Republicans. Almost seven-in-10 (68 percent) are more likely to be at least somewhat satisfied, compared to only 47 percent of other Republicans, and less likely to have no preference (only one-third cannot name a choice). As was true in February, Romney is the candidate of choice among Tea Party supporters (20 percent). Perry is easily within the margin of error for this small subsample at 16 percent, nine points higher than Bachman.

Perry May Shake up race

Perry’s candidacy may cause New Jersey Republicans to re-evaluate the field – only about half were surveyed after his announcement. After he entered the race, GOP satisfaction for their candidates increased 11 points to 61 percent “Even with a small sample, we see a trend toward fewer Republicans favoring Romney and more naming Perry,” Redlawsk said.

A More Detailed Look at Opinion about Chris Christie

As we said in Friday’s release, opinion about NJ Gov. Chris Christie remains split. But it is also the case that his favorable rating has shifted quite a lot over the last 18 months. Back when we first asked this right after his inauguration, 45 percent of voters had a favorable impression of the Governor, while only 26 percent had an unfavorable impression.Lots of people said they didn’t know. Since then, Christie’s favorable rating has drifted in a very narrow range, and in our most recent poll it is back at 45 percent. But his unfavorable rating has increased substantially, from 26 to 47 percent.

So the interesting question is what’s going on? We asked voters this time if their opinion has changed and if so has it gotten better or worse. As you’ll see from the release below, more people say it has gotten worse than either stayed the same or gotten better. We then wanted to see if we could figure out reasons, so we asked people to say whether a series of reasons applied. As it turns out, there is little to distinguish those whose opinion “got better” from those who “got worse”. Large majorities of both groups cited many of the same reasons.  From our list – including the budget, state employees, education, speculation about running for president, how he treats the public, property taxes, and a catch-all “just how he’s doing his job as governor” – education is the only one that really discriminates, with more people citing it as a reason their opinion has gotten worse.

At the same time, it turns out that speculation on Christie running for president does not influence opinion change for very many, and his interaction with members of the public and how he’s handled property taxes are both lower than the other issues and his general job performance as reasons for changing opinions.

Maybe more interesting here are the series of emotions questions we repeated from last April. More voters are worried and fewer are either proud or enthusiastic about Christie. Even Republicans are less likely to be proud or enthusiastic, and independents are more worried by the governor than they were in April.

Click here for a PDF of the full release with tables.

Text of the release follows:

Plurality of NJ Voters Say Opinion of Gov. Christie has “Gotten Worse” since He Took Office

NEW BRUNSWICK, NJ – While New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has had recent legislative successes, including dramatic changes in public employee pension and health benefits, more New Jersey registered voters say their opinion of the governor had “gotten worse” since he took office, than say they feel better, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released today. While one-third of Garden Staters say there has been no change in their opinion of the governor, 38 percent say they have a worse opinion now and 28 percent say their opinion has gotten better. Favorability ratings over time also show an increase in negative feelings. In February 2010 right after his inauguration, 45 percent of voters had a favorable impression of the governor, while only 26 percent felt unfavorable. In this poll, 45 percent still have a favorable impression, but 47 percent now say they feel unfavorable, an increase of 21 points.

“Most leaders find their ratings slipping over time, often as they put their priorities in place,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. “While people often start out willing to give the benefit of the doubt to new officeholders, as decisions get made, more people begin to feel either positive or negative about them. In this case, Governor Christie has generated strong feelings, and thus polarized opinion.”

Results are from a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll of 615 registered voters conducted among both landline and cell phone households from Aug. 9 – 15, with a margin of error for the full sample of +/- 3.9 percentage points.

Younger Voters, Moderates, Public Employee Union Members More Negative

While voters overall say their opinion has not gotten better, younger voters, moderates and members of public employee unions are particularly more likely to say they feel worse over time. Nearly half of voters under 30, and 42 percent of those 30 to 49 years old say their opinion had gotten worse, while only 29 percent of those over 65 are more negative. And while few conservatives (19 percent) feel worse, 41 percent of moderates say their opinion has gotten worse, along with 50 percent of liberals. Unsurprisingly, given Christie’s efforts to change benefits for public employees, nearly half of voters with a public employee union member in their household say their opinion is worse now, while only 17 percent say it has gotten better.

“That these groups feel worse about Christie is not necessarily unexpected, “said Redlawsk. “Younger voters and public union members are not really part of his natural base. And moderates in New Jersey tend to lean more Democratic than Republican. As Christie has made clear his direction, groups like this are less and less happy with him.” Lower income and less educated voters show the same pattern of increased negativity.

Women are also more likely to say they feel worse about Christie, with 44 percent having a negative view, while 34 percent say there has been no change and 22 percent say their opinion has improved. Men are evenly split, with 35 percent feeling better, 34 percent feeling worse, and 31 percent saying there has been no change in their opinion about the governor.

Few 2009 Voters Converted

The past 18 months have done little to change the opinion of those who voted in the 2009 gubernatorial election. While only 15 percent of Christie voters say their opinion has gotten worse, 58 percent of Corzine voters feel more negative. At the same time, only 15 percent of Corzine voters feel better about Christie now, compared to 45 percent of those who voted for Christie in the first place.

Looking toward the 2013 gubernatorial election, only 42 percent of registered voters would vote for Christie if the election were today, while 49 percent would prefer someone else. As with opinions about Christie, few 2009 voters have changed their mind. While 78 percent of Christie backers would vote for him again, only 12 percent of Corzine voters would switch to Christie if the election were today.

“While asking about an election two years away doesn’t really tell us what will happen in 2013, it does give us a read on what voters are thinking,” said Redlawsk. “For the most part, lines in the sand are as distinct as ever. Most who voted for Christie still feel positive and would still vote for him. Most who voted for Corzine would vote against Christie again given the chance. Overall, he loses at the moment because voters who did not vote in 2009 say they don’t want to re-elect him at this point. This includes young voters who are strongly in favor of change.”

Reasons for Opinion Change Mixed

Given reasons voters might have for feeling better or worse about Christie, a generic “way he is handling the job of governor” garners 90 percent support as a reason for having changed opinions. Of those, 56 percent whose opinion changed say this is a reason their opinion has gotten worse, while 44 percent cite it as a reason for holding a better opinion now.

The issue of education generates the most negative response; 83 percent of voters with changed opinions say education issues are a reason. Sixty-three percent say they feel worse about Christie, while only 37 percent cite it as a reason they feel better.

For Republicans, Christie’s handling of the state budget is the top reason for opinion change; 94 percent choose this reason, with three-quarters of those saying it is why their opinion has gotten better. For Democrats, 89 percent say a reason for opinion change is simply how Christie handles his job, and 78 percent of this group says it makes their opinion of the governor worse. Independents’ top reason (91 percent) for changed opinion also is how the governor is handling his job. They are split, however, on whether this is a reason to feel better (46 percent) or worse (54 percent) about Christie.

More Worry; Less Pride and Enthusiasm since April

Changes in opinion about Christie are also reflected in voters’ emotional responses. Voters have become more “worried” and less “proud” and “enthusiastic” about Christie since an April 2011 Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Worry is the dominant emotional response to Christie, with 54 percent saying they experience this emotion when reading or hearing about the governor. This is up from 49 percent in April. Forty-four percent of voters are made “angry” thinking about Christie, not much changed from 42 percent four months ago.

Positive emotional reactions have declined since April, with 30 percent now saying Christie makes them feel “enthusiastic” (38 percent in April) and only 30 percent saying they feel “proud” when reading or hearing about the governor (compared to 36 percent).

“Politics is very much about emotions,” said Redlawsk. “While we like to think people make careful decisions based on the policies they want to see implemented, we know that how people feel about politicians plays a big role in how they evaluate them. The decline in positive emotions and increase in negative ones reinforces that voters in New Jersey are not necessarily being won over by the governor.”

Interesting patterns appear in partisan emotional responses. Not surprisingly, GOP backers are much more positive, with 62 percent proud and 62 percent enthusiastic, while only 19 percent are angry and 27 percent worried. But this represents a drop in positive emotions by eight points among Republicans, 70 percent of whom were proud and enthusiastic in April. While Republicans are no angrier than in April, they are more worried, up six points from 21 percent four months ago.

Democrats show a substantial drop in positive responses to Christie, with 7 percent now saying they are proud, compared to 17 percent in April, and 7 percent expressing enthusiasm, down from 19 percent. At the same time, more Democrats are angry, at 71 percent, up nine points. Worry is up slightly, from 70 percent to 73 percent.

Independents also are more worried by Christie, with 54 percent now saying reading and hearing about him makes them worry, up nine points from April. While there has been no real change in how many are angered or proud, enthusiasm has dropped by seven points; only 30 percent of independents say reading or hearing about Christie makes them enthusiastic.

“While the change among Democrats probably makes no real difference since they are unlikely to support Christie anyway, the decline in positive responses from Republicans, combined with the decrease in enthusiasm and increase in worry among independents, may be more of a concern,” said Redlawsk. “From the governor’s standpoint, he cannot afford to lose independents since there are more Democrats than Republicans here. But it is hard to motivate people who are worried about you and not terribly enthusiastic to support you.”

New Numbers on Christie and Obama in NJ

Well, we are working hard this week here at the poll. While we already had one release this morning, these data are too interesting to hold over the weekend, so we are also releasing our findings on evaluations of Gov. Chris Christie and President Obama. Quick summary – Obama has dropped quite a bit in NJ, losing support from both liberals and moderates. For quite a while his rating held up well above Gov. Christie’s. Now they are both in the same place. As for the governor, while his favorables have not changed much, his job performance grade has dropped and more voters currently say they would prefer someone else in 2013 than want to re-elect him. It’s a tough time out there for all leaders. Voters are generally unhappy, and are taking it out on both sides.

As usual the text of the release follows. You can get a PDF of the text plus all tables and questions here.

STEEP DROP FOR OBAMA IN NEW JERSEY;
CHRISTIE SUPPORT MORE STABLE,
BUT MAJORITY WOULD NOT VOTE TO REELECT HIM

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – New Jersey voters have become noticeably less positive about President Barack Obama, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released today. Obama’s favorable rating has dropped to 44 percent, down 11 points from an April 2011 Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, while another 44 percent view him unfavorably, up 12 points.

Over the same period, support for Gov. Chris Christie is mostly unchanged, at 45 percent favorable and 47 percent unfavorable, compared to 44 percent to 42 percent four months ago. Even so, this is the first Rutgers-Eagleton Poll to show feelings about Christie more negative than positive, though the difference is within the margin of error for the poll. Asked if they would vote to re-elect Gov. Christie or prefer someone else, 42 percent say they would vote for Christie, while 49 percent would support someone else.

“The debt ceiling mess in Washington, along with the general economic malaise, has clearly taken its toll on how Garden Staters view the President,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. “Particularly significant are drops among both independents and Democrats. After having a mostly positive view of Obama, independents have shifted distinctly negative, while Democrats have become far less positive as well. Given his easy win in New Jersey in 2008, these results are even more striking. At the same time, Gov. Christie’s prospects are also tough.”

Results are from a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll of 615 registered voters conducted among both landline and cell phone households from August 9 – 15, with a margin of error for the full sample of +/- 3.9 percentage points.

White Voters’ Support for Obama Weak

Much of the change in Obama’s favorability stems from white voters, who have become very -negative toward the president. More than half of whites (54 percent) view Obama unfavorably, while only 34 percent have a favorable view. Blacks remain strongly supportive, but even that support has slipped a few points, to 78 percent favorable and 12 percent unfavorable. Obama has lost support from both the middle and the left, with moderates evenly split 43 percent to 41 percent (compared to 58 percent favorable in April) and liberal support dropping to 71 percent favorable from 88 percent in April.

“Obama’s efforts to compromise appear to have not helped him in New Jersey,” said Redlawsk. “Conservatives and Republicans still overwhelmingly dislike him, while moderates have not been impressed, and liberals are getting frustrated. The result is an across-the-board decline. These numbers also certainly reflect the anger and frustration voters have with Washington. It’s worth noting that Congress’s rating is now only 14 percent favorable and 73 percent unfavorable in the Garden State.”

Obama Job Performance Grade Dips

President Obama’s job performance grade has also declined significantly over the summer. Only 8 percent of voters now give him an A (compared to 14 percent in April) and 25 percent assign a B (32 percent in April.) Negative grades have increased, with 19 percent now grading him F, compared to 10 percent in April, and 18 percent giving him a D, up 2 points. Overall, Obama gets positive grades from 33 percent of voters, down 13 points, and negative grades from 37 percent, up 11 points. Another 30 percent assign him a grade of C, compared to 27 percent in April.

Conservative voters mostly give Obama a D or F, which is no surprise. What should worry the President is that liberal voters are much less positive than they were only a few months ago. Among liberals the most popular grade now is a C at 47 percent. In April liberals were more likely to give Obama a B, at 57 percent, but now only one-third still give him a B. Far fewer liberals (12 percent) give him an A than in April, when 20 percent did.

Moderate support for Obama’s job performance has also declined, with only one-third assigning an A or B, compared to 48 percent in April. Moderates are evenly split, with another third giving a grade of C and 32 percent assigning a D or F.

“While not entirely disastrous yet, the big picture for the President does not look good in New Jersey,” said Redlawsk. “He is losing support among his base while failing to make any inroads with more conservative voters. As long as the economy remains weak and voters so unsettled, the re-election campaign may be a challenge, even here.”

Christie Favorability Rating Shows Little Movement

The main story about Gov. Christie’s support in New Jersey is that there has been little change. While the new results show a small increase in unfavorablity, this change maintains the same small range the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll has reported throughout 2011. Independents are split, 47 percent favorable to 45 percent unfavorable, while 82 percent of Republicans are positive and 72 percent of Democrats are negative. Independents and Democrats have become more unfavorable toward the governor, while Republicans support has actually increased somewhat.

Union households and Blacks remain negative about Gov. Christie, with only 32 percent of public employee union households expressing a favorable impression, while 66 percent are unfavorable. While whites have a favorable impression, 53 percent to 40 percent, only 12 percent of Blacks are favorable, with 77 percent unfavorable.

For the most part, New Jersey’s feelings about the Governor track with voters’ views of the state as a whole, which have also shown little change. Asked if the state is currently going in the right direction, 43 percent agree, while 51 percent say the state is on the wrong track. This is little changed from April’s 42 percent right direction, 49 percent wrong track numbers.

Christie Job Performance Grade Declines; Remains Highly Polarized

Job performance grades for Gov. Christie remain highly polarized while declining over the past four months. Fewer than 1 in 5 voters gives him a middle grade of C, while 38 percent assign a grade of A (13 percent) or B (25 percent) and 43 percent give a D (24 percent) or F (19 percent). In an April Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, Christie received an A or B from 46 percent of voters, while only 35 percent assigned a D or F to his job performance. The new grades represent a movement of 8 points toward the negative for the Governor over the summer.

Moderates grade Gov. Christie much less favorably than they did four months ago. While 46 percent gave Christie an A or B in April, only 26 percent do so now, while 44 percent now give him a D or F, compared to only 31 percent in April. Liberals, never great fans of the governor, are even less positive now, with 11 percent grading him A or B (including only 1 percent A.) This is down by half from April, when 23 percent of liberals gave strong grades to Christie. Conservative voters remain supportive of Christie’s job performance, but most (43 percent) give him a B rather than an A (24 percent).

“The overall story for Gov. Christie is that views of him personally have changed little, with voters remaining split between favorable and unfavorable,” said Redlawsk. “But the last four months have not been as kind to his job performance grade, which has become more polarized and negative as the year has gone on. At least he can take solace in knowing the president has fallen harder. Where he once trailed President Obama’s ratings, both leaders are now suffering equally in terms of how voters view them.”

At the Moment New Jersey Voters Prefer Someone Else in 2013

In a very early read on the 2013 New Jersey gubernatorial election, voters were asked whether, if the election were today, they would vote for Gov. Christie or someone else. Only 42 percent say they would vote for the Governor today, while 49 percent prefer someone else. As befits Christie’s strong polarizing effect, only 7 percent are unsure.

Among those who voted for Christie in 2009, 78 percent say they would re-elect him, while13 percent prefer someone else. More than 80 percent of 2009’s Corzine voters say they want someone other than Christie in 2013, while 12 percent say they would vote for the governor. Christie’s strongest support comes from voters over 65, who prefer him by 12 points, 50 percent to 38 percent. Only 32 percent of voters under 30 would vote for Christie, and 57 percent want someone else. Men are evenly split, with 46 percent supporting Christie and 45 percent preferring another candidate. Women, however, are strongly opposed to Christie; only 37 percent say they would vote for him. While 77 percent of Democrats want someone else and 79 percent of Republicans would vote for Christie, independents are split, with 45 percent saying they would re-elect him and 46 percent saying they would opt for someone else.

“We should take these results with a grain of salt, of course,” said Redlawsk. “While no incumbent wants voters preferring to throw them out of office, the election is more than 2 years away. It’s one thing for voters to say they want someone else, but entirely another to support a specific alternative. Without a clear Democratic alternative, voters don’t have to make a real choice, so they can express concern now even if, in the end, they might vote for the governor. Still, these numbers give some sense of the uncertainty of the current political environment.”

NJ Voters Still Want Dems to Control Legislature

Today we weigh in on the upcoming NJ Legislative elections in November 2011.  We asked our initial questions on this late last February (link to release) and are now following up to see what’s changed. In short, relatively little, though we see a small trend of independents away from the Democrats and toward the Republicans. But that’s a test of who voters want to control the legislature when it’s all over. While it would be nice to be able to poll directly in legislative districts, we simply can’t, so we rely on statewide preferences including a generic ballot test, that suggest NJ voters still prefer to see Democrats running the legislature. But having said that, every local election will be determined at least in part by the candidates and the facts on the ground at the time of the election. Still interesting to see the general trends.

Following is the full text of the release.  Click here for PDF OF RELEASE WITH ALL QUESTIONS AND TABLES

NJ Voters Want Democrats to Remain in Control of the Legislature
But Democratic Support Slips among Independents

NEW BRUNSWICK, NJ – Looking to the 2011 legislative elections New Jersey voters want to see Democrats remain in charge of the legislature, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released today. Just over half of registered voters say they want Democrats to continue to act as a check on Gov. Chris Christie’s plans, while 38 percent want Republicans to win so the Governor’s proposals will not be blocked. The Democrats’ 13-point margin represents an increase since early April when the margin was 9 points, but a decline from February when Democrats led by 17 points.

Democrats also lead Republicans by 10 points in generic ballot tests for the New Jersey General Assembly and the State Senate, but crucial independent voters are evenly split between parties.

“When thinking about the legislature versus the governor, voters prefer that Democrats remain able to balance Gov. Christie,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. “But when asked simply to consider their actual vote in Assembly and Senate races, they are somewhat less supportive of Democrats.”

Results are from a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll of 615 registered voters conducted among both landline and cell phone households from August 9 – 15, with a margin of error for the full sample of +/- 3.9 percentage points.

Voters Want Democratic Control of the Legislature

Voters want Democrats to remain in control of the state legislature by a 51 to 38 percent margin, with 11 percent unsure, a small increase from early April’s 48 to 39 percent margin supporting Democratic control. In February, however, voters were even more positive toward Democrats, with 54 percent preferring Democratic control in Trenton to 37 percent for Republicans.

Among partisan voters, 80 percent of each party wants their own party to win, but independents are increasingly divided in their responses and support for Democratic control. Forty-one percent of independents now say they want Republicans to win, while 43 percent say Democrats should be in charge. In the February Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, independent voters preferred Democratic control by a margin of 10 points, 48 to 38 percent.

“Support for Democratic control has bounced around for the last six months, while Republican support has remained nearly constant,” said Redlawsk. “The uncertainty can be attributed to independent voters who supported Democratic control by 10 points in February, but who now only favor Democrats by 2 points. If Democratic candidates have trouble holding onto independents, more seats might be in play than expected.”

Generic Ballot favors Democrats; Independents Split

In two generic ballot tests asking whether they plan to vote for Republicans or Democrats in their own legislative districts, 35 percent say they plan to vote for a Democrat for the New Jersey General Assembly, while 25 percent say they will vote for a Republican. Another 10 percent would like to vote for someone else, and 27 percent say they are unsure who they will choose.

Including unsure voters who lean one way or the other, 38 percent say they will vote for or lean toward Democrats and 29 percent will vote for or lean toward Republicans, while 20 percent remain unsure of their choice.

Democrats are also preferred for the State Senate. Thirty-eight percent plan to vote for a Democrat, and 28 percent for a Republican, while 7 percent say someone else and 25 percent are unsure.  Including unsure, but leaning voters, 40 percent of New Jerseyans say they will either vote for or lean toward a Democrat compared to 31 percent voting for or leaning toward a Republican for their State Senator, and 19 percent remaining unsure.

More than 80 percent of partisan voters say they will vote for or lean toward voting for their own party this fall. Independents are slightly more likely to support Republicans for the General Assembly, with 26 percent favoring Republicans compared to 24 percent for Democrats, but this is well within the margin of error. For State Senate, independents are evenly split, 28 percent for a Republican and 28 percent for a Democrat.

Attitudes toward Gov. Christie seem to drive votes against Republicans more than for them. While 55 percent of voters holding a favorable opinion of Christie say they will vote or lean Republican in the Assembly vote this fall, 65 percent of those who dislike the governor plan to vote or lean Democratic. Similar results appear for the Senate, with 58 percent who like Christie supporting a Republican compared to 68 percent of those who hold a negative impression of Christie who lean or will vote Democratic.

Check the Governor or Not? Voters Send an Unclear Message

Despite wanting Democrats to stay in control of the legislature after the election so they can “act as a check” on Gov. Christie’s plans, voters also prefer that the Democrats currently in the legislature work with the Governor rather than trying to resist him. A large majority (60 percent) says Democrats ought to work with the Governor, while only 30 percent believe Democrats should focus on resisting Christie’s plans and act as a check on him.

Voters who do want the Democrats to resist are clearly unhappy with what they see, with 68 percent saying Democrats have not done enough to block Christie’s policies. Only 21 percent of those who see the role of Democrats as balancing Christie’s power say Democrats have done enough to fulfill this task.

“Voters are fed up with gridlock and clearly want politicians to work together,” said Redlawsk. “Any time we ask about working together, we get large majorities in favor. So the same voters who tell us they want Democrats to win in Trenton so they can act as a check also tell us they still want Democrats to work with Gov. Christie now rather than resisting his plans. This is not so much an endorsement of everything the Governor wants to do as a strong desire to see compromise, not contention.”

Among partisans, the response to whether Democrats should work with the Governor or resist him highlights a division among Democrats and shows cohesion among Republicans. While more than 80 percent of Republicans want Democrats to work with the Governor, Democrats are evenly split with 46 percent saying they want Democrats to provide a check on the Governor and 45 percent of Democrats saying they want their party to work with the Governor and not resist him. Among independents, 61 percent want the Democrats to work with the Governor and 29 percent want them to resist his plans.

Nearly all (88 percent) of those who hold a favorable impression of Gov. Christie want Democrats in Trenton to work with him, while only 6 percent think Democrats should resist him. Voters with a negative view of the governor are more split, with 56 percent wanting the Democrats to resist his plans, while 34 percent say Democrats should work with him even though they feel unfavorable toward the governor.

Rutgers-Eagleton Poll: Debt Ceiling Agreement Has New Jersey Voters Split; Frustrated at Washington

Well, summer is nearly over, and we’re back with a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. We will have a number of releases on this poll over the next week and a half. Our first release takes a look at the recent debt ceiling crisis/debate/compromise/agreement and what New Jersey voters think about it. For the most part, they are not particularly happy – opinion on the agreement itself is evenly split, and those who paid the most attention are the most negative about how things are going in Washington. In fact, the level of anger and frustration with Washington is extraordinarily high, and it’s likely the debt crisis simply made that worse.

As usual, the text of the release is below. For a PDF of the release with questions and tables related to this topic, click here.

Debt Ceiling Agreement Has New Jersey Voters Split; Frustrated at Washington

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – New Jersey Republicans and Democrats agree on one thing: voters of both parties are evenly split over the debt limit agreement recently reached in Washington, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released today. While Democrats narrowly support the agreement, 40 percent to 38 percent, Republicans are also split, with 36 percent supporting and 41 percent opposing the agreement. New Jersey independents are also slightly opposed, with 39 percent in favor and 43 percent against. Overall, 39 percent of New Jersey voters support the agreement and 41 percent oppose it, while 20 percent are not sure. Those who paid the most attention to the debate also reported the most anger with Washington and the strongest belief that Washington “no longer works.”

“The agreement seems to have made few New Jersey voters happy,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. “Maybe it’s the sign of a good compromise that partisans on both sides are disappointed, or perhaps it simply reflects that the contentious process really didn’t solve anything.”

Results are from a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll of 615 registered voters conducted among both landline and cell phone households from August 9 – 15, with a margin of error for the full sample of +/- 3.9 percentage points.

More NJ Voters Blame Republicans for Crisis

While voters of both parties are less than thrilled about the debt ceiling compromise, they differ completely in where they place the blame for the crisis. More than a third (34 percent) of Republicans says President Barack Obama was most to blame and another19 percent blame Democrats in Congress.

Only a few Republicans place blame on their own party in Congress (8 percent) or on Tea Party Republicans specifically (3 percent). Another 24 percent say “someone else” is to blame, and 13 percent don’t know. Democrats, not surprisingly, have different take, with 39 percent blaming Republicans in Congress and an additional 29 percent blaming Tea Party Republicans specifically. Only about 2 percent places the blame on either Obama or Democrats in Congress, while 19 percent say someone else is to blame, and 11 percent don’t know.

Independents are more likely to blame Republicans, with 20 percent naming Tea Party Republicans and 15 percent Republicans in Congress, while 15 percent blame Obama and 13 percent blame Democrats in Congress. Twenty-three percent of independents blame “someone else” and 14 percent don’t know whom to blame.

“For the most part, Republicans in Washington emerge from the debate in somewhat worse shape than do Democrats, at least among New Jersey voters,” said Redlawsk. “There are, of course, more Democrats in New Jersey, which accounts for part of it, but by a 35 to 28 percent margin, independents lay more blame on Republicans than on Democrats.”

NJ Voters Want Revenues and Spending Cuts

When asked to choose from a set of three options for getting the federal budget “under control,” Garden Staters strongly support increased tax revenues, while opposing across-the-board cuts with no tax increases. Among all voters, 42 percent support a balance of tax increases on higher earners with some cuts in programs like Medicare, while another 19 percent support tax increases that would avoid any cuts. Only 22 percent want cuts and no tax increases, while 12 percent opt for none of these choices.

Democrats and Republicans have different views on how to fix the federal budget, though independents lean toward Democratic preferences. While 42 percent of Republicans call for across-the- board cuts and no tax increases, only 12 percent of Democrats agree. Only about 1 in 5 independents agrees that getting the budget under control should be done this way. Democrats prefer a mix of tax increases on the wealthy and small program cuts, with 53 percent of Democrats choosing this approach, compared to only 29 percent of Republicans. Independents side mostly with Democrats here, with 42 percent preferring a mix of tax increases and budget cuts. Nearly equal percentages of Democrats (24 percent) and independents (20 percent) would like to see tax increases and no budget cuts used to solve the problem, while few Republicans (11 percent) agree with this position.

The 22 percent of New Jerseyans who want across the board cuts are partly a reflection of stronger Tea Party support for this position. About 42 percent of those who have a favorable impression of the Tea Party support only budget cuts, while only 10 percent of those with an unfavorable view of the Tea Party movement agree. At the same time, 31 percent of Tea Party supporters in New Jersey support a mix of tax increases and budget cuts, while 53 percent of those unfavorable to the movement take this position. Those unsure of their feelings toward the Tea Party are much more evenly split, with 35 percent favoring across-the-board spending cuts and 29 percent preferring a mix of cuts and tax increases. Another 15 percent of these voters wants taxes raised to avoid spending cuts, compared to only 7 percent with a positive view of the Tea Party and 24 percent viewing the movement negatively.

“These differences reflect the core beliefs of each party,” said Redlawsk,. “But independents lean strongly in the direction of the Democrats on a preferred solution. Yet with the parties so far apart, there may be little hope of meeting in the middle, where most New Jersey voters seem to want them.”

Attention to the Debate May Have Increased Frustration with Washington

Many New Jersey voters paid careful attention to the debt ceiling debate, with 36 percent saying they followed the debate “very closely” and another 41 percent saying they followed it “somewhat closely.” Only 23 percent say they did not follow it closely at all. Members of both parties and independents were about equally likely to say they followed the debate closely.
Men were much more likely to say they followed the debate very closely – 47 percent of men, compared to 25 percent of women, paid very close attention. While only 17 percent of men said they did not follow it at all closely, nearly a third of women – 30 percent – did not pay close attention.

Following the debate very closely seems to have led to greater opposition to the agreement. A majority (57 percent) of those who paid close attention oppose the outcome, while only 39 percent support it. On the other hand, those following “somewhat closely” are in favor of the compromise, 46 percent to 39 percent. Voters not following it at all are also more in favor, 26 percent to 22 percent, but a majority (52 percent) of those not paying attention are not sure what they think.

Those paying the most attention were also more likely than others to place blame for the crisis on Tea Party Republicans, at 26 percent of close followers, while another 20 percent blame Republicans in Congress. Fewer blame Obama (17 percent) or Democrats in Congress (14 percent).

Policy preferences differ depending on how closely voters followed the debate. Among those following it most closely, 48 percent prefer a mix of spending cuts and tax increases, while 27 percent want across the board cuts and 13 percent support tax increases with no cuts. Preferences are similar among those following the debate “somewhat closely” but are very different among those not following the debate closely at all. Among the latter group, 32 percent would prefer only tax increases with no spending cuts, and 28 percent want a balanced approach, while 20 percent support across the board cuts.

Those who followed the debate very closely were much more likely to also say that Washington “no longer works,” with 78 percent of those who paid the most attention agreeing. Far fewer – 56 percent – of those who did not pay close attention to the debate feel the same way. At the same time 76 percent of voters who paid close attention say thinking about the government in Washington makes them angry, compared to 67 percent of those who did not follow the debate closely.

“For the most part, the debate in Washington engaged Garden Staters,” said Redlawsk. “But it may also have increased already high levels of anger and frustration with politics. Voters are split on the outcome, angry with Washington, and probably frustrated that they did not get what they wanted.”