An inside look at what we do from a student perspective

As part of our teaching mission here at the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling we have a number of undergraduates working with us. Two of them are Aresty Research Assistants this year. The Aresty Program provides students with a number of different opportunities to get involved with faculty and research at Rutgers. The following post is by Abdul Rehman Khan, who has been working on a number of things for us this year. Abdul picked up on the NYPD Muslim monitoring issue and had a direct impact on what we did with that. Here’s his post:

 

Working at the Eagleton Poll
Abdul Rehman Khan

The Eagleton Poll is a great place to work; I’m not being paid to write this, just my grade depends on it.  Jokes aside, I can tell you about an incidence that is incredibly rare at such a large academic institution:  the opportunity for an undergraduate student to not just have his opinion heard regarding research conducted by a Professor and phD candidates, but have that opinion actually be incorporated into that respect research.

About a month ago, Ashley, a Political Science graduate student, sent an email to the Eagleton Poll team of 12 (undergraduates included), asking if there were any issues/questions/suggestions that should be covered in the upcoming Rutgers-Eagleton Poll.  Just around that time, it was revealed that NYPD was doing surveillance into Muslim/Arab groups in universities across the Northeast, including Rutgers University. In fact, in 2009, a superintendent found an NYPD safe house used to spy on the Rutgers University Muslim Students Association in his apartment building after complaints from neighbors who thought it was a terrorist cell. Also around that time, President McCormick officially condemned the actions of the NYPD, alongside the presidents of Yale and Columbia.

With this in mind, I found it key that the next Rutgers-Eagleton Poll would touch upon this topic. I submitted my proposal with a sample question.  The Eagleton Poll responded with enthusiasm and in no time, as I supervised the Eagleton Calling Center, I heard rows of callers all reading questions based on a proposal that an undergraduate had put forth. Despite the unfortunate and chilling truth that most New Jersey voters support NYPD surveillance of minority groups across the Northeast, and despite my initial efforts to show that New Jersey citizens were more open-minded in their thinking due to our diversity, I found comfort in knowing that I, as an undergraduate, had lent to highlighting this issue of discrimination.  Although I did not find the results I was looking for, I knew that at the very least I was given an opportunity to look for these results. Few departments and centers grant undergraduate sophomores the chance to think, engage, and lend to research; the Eagleton Poll is one of these few places.

Obama Maintains Support in NJ; Continues to Lead Romney

A PDF with questions and tables is available here.

Our most recent poll also gets a read on the 2012 election in New Jersey. The overall story is not a lot of change from our early February poll. Support for President Obama among New Jersey voters holds steady.  A clear majority – 58 percent – has a favorable impression of the president, while one third of voters continue to remain unfavorable.  His job performance grade also remain virtually the same, with half of all voters awarding Obama an A or B and a little more than one quarter giving a grade of D or F.  As was true in February, 22 percent give him a C.

Obama’s positive ratings coincide with a continuing double digit lead over the top Republican presidential candidates in general election match-ups.  The president leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 58 to 31 percent, a 27-point difference that has held relatively steady.  Obama leads former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich 64 to 23 percent and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum 62 to 27 percent.

In general, Romney earns the highest favorability rating from New Jersey voters among all three Republican candidates, but half of voters still have an unfavorable impression of him.  Only 28 percent have a favorable impression toward Romney, 20 percent toward Santorum, and a meager 12 percent toward Gingrich.

None of the Republican candidates score very highly at all among New Jersey voters, which is reflected in Obama’s wide leads against each of them in these match-ups.   The president appears to be maintaining his solid lead over any Republican in New Jersey.

Results are from a poll of 601 New Jersey adults, including a subsample of 518 registered voters conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from March 21-27. The registered voter sample has a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.

Obama viewed positively by almost all groups, though Independents show slight dip

In line with the overall trend, Obama is viewed favorably by most groups, except for Republicans and conservatives. Three-quarters of Republicans and 71 percent of conservatives feel unfavorable toward the president.  Only 15 percent of Republicans and one-quarter of conservatives express favorable views.  These numbers remain basically stable from last month, during which Obama saw a slight softening in opposition from Republican and conservative voters after single-digit favorability with Republicans last fall.  In contrast, overwhelming majorities of Democrats and liberals – 87 and 86 percent, respectively – hold favorable views of Obama.

Obama’s favorability takes a slight downward turn with independent and moderate voters since last month.  While February showed a large increase in favorable ratings among these groups, Independents have dropped 5 points since then in their favorability toward Obama to 50 percent and moderates are down 7 points to 54 percent. It may be too early to tell if these drops among Independent and moderate voters are the start of a new downward trend for them, but these groups can make a difference in the general election.

While Obama’s job performance grade remains relatively solid with all New Jersey voters, groups who had given Obama an A a month ago are showing some shift toward B’s. Among the 58 percent of voters with favorable impressions of Obama, 20 percent give him an A for job performance, 59 percent give him a B, and 18 percent give him a C.  Like most of the other groups of voters, even those who give Obama high favorability ratings are at the same time giving him more B’s than A’s on job performance compared to a month ago.

Obama continues large lead over Republican frontrunner Romney

Even if there has been a softening of job performance ratings for Obama, so far there has been no impact on his lead over likely Republican nominee Romney.  Romney receives the highest favorability ratings among Republican candidates across most subgroups, including Republicans and conservatives.  Of Republicans, 58 percent view Romney favorably, compared to 45 percent who view Santorum favorably, and only 28 percent who feel favorable toward Gingrich.

Independents and moderates more or less reflect the overall number of voters both in terms of favorability toward Romney and in the general election match-ups.  Only 31 percent of Independents and 26 percent of moderates have favorable opinions toward Romney, though this is higher than their opinions of both Santorum and Gingrich.  In a head-to-head with Romney, 51 percent of Independents and 53 percent of moderates would choose Obama.  Yet Independents and moderates also have a relatively high number of don’t knows in this general election match-up – 16 percent of Independents and 12 percent of moderates are undecided in who they would vote for between Obama and Romney.

Obama’s 58 percent to 31 percent lead over Romney is fueled by two factors: the larger number of Democrats versus Republicans in New Jersey and the fact that independents are currently strongly in his camp. Ninety percent of Democrats support Obama, compared to 84 percent of Republicans who would vote for Romney in the head-to-head matchup. Among independents, 51 percent say they support Obama, while 29 percent are in the Romney camp.

LITTLE CHANGE IN SUPPORT FOR CHRISTIE, RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL FINDS

Back in August 2010 we began asking about a series of “trait” attributes as applied to Gov. Chris Christie in addition to our usual  questions about how favorable people feel about the governor and how his job performance is perceived. We ask a series of both positive and negative trait words and respondents tell us “how well” they describe Gov. Christie. We have also included a set of emotion words, asking how people “feel” when they read or hear about the governor. These kinds of questions help us dig below the relatively simplistic positive and negative ratings we otherwise get.

Today’s release does our usual ratings – favorability and job performance, but also our occasional trait and emotion questions which we last asked in October 2011. Back in October, the governor’s trait ratings had improved significantly since April 2011 (the previous time we asked) probably due to factors relating to the speculation about a run for the presidency. By improved we mean that the use of negative words to describe him declined, while positive words increased. Today the negatives are back up to where they were in April 2011, though the propensity to use the positive traits has not gone down. At the same time, Christie’s overall favorability and job performance ratings have remained remarkably stable in our polling over the last two years.

The text of today’s release is below. Click here for a PDF of the text, with the questions and tables related to this release.

LITTLE CHANGE IN SUPPORT FOR CHRISTIE, RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL FINDS

Voters more outspoken about governor’s personality traits

 NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – While Gov. Chris Christie’s favorability ratings show little change since a February Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, New Jersey voters have become more likely to describe him as stubborn, arrogant and self-centered than they were six months ago, a new survey finds. At the same time, a majority thinks strong leader, independent and smart are also good descriptors of the governor.

Forty-six percent of respondents feel favorably toward Christie while 42 percent do not, virtually unchanged since February. The governor received an “A” or “B” for his job performance in both polls from 43 percent of voters while 30 percent gave him a “D” or “F.”

Voters have become more likely to ascribe negative traits to Christie, compared to October 2011, the poll finds. More than half (56 percent) say arrogant applies very well, up 15 points. The terms self-centered and bully each gained 11 points. Stubborn, which may be seen as either positive or negative, is up 12 points; 62 percent who say it fits the governor very well.

Voters are also more likely to express anger (up 11 points to 42 percent) and worry (up 9 points to 46 percent) than six months ago,  while no more likely to feel proud (35 percent, down 4 points) or enthusiastic (36 percent, down 1 point) about Christie..

Half the respondents use positives, such as strong leader, independent, and smart to describe Christie, but the only positive trait to increase significantly is independent (nine percentage points).

“After becoming less negative in October compared to April last year, voters are again more willing to ascribe negative traits to Gov. Christie,” said poll Director David Redlawsk, a professor of political science at Rutgers University. “In the latter part of 2011, as the presidential talk increased, the governor was less visibly combative in his public appearances. But as we were polling this time, several high profile events made people think again about traits they find less positive.”

Results are from a poll of 601 New Jersey adults, including a subsample of 518 registered voters conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from March 21-27. The registered voter sample has a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.

Christie evaluations continue slightly positive

Voters’ impressions of Christie have remained relatively consistent since August 2010. His worst rating came in August 2011, when 45 percent were favorable and 47 percent unfavorable. At his best, Christie was up 12 points in November 2011, 49 percent to 37 percent.

“It’s rather fascinating that across such a long period we have stable ratings,” said Redlawsk. “Given the strength of his personality and the battles he has picked and won, we would expect more ups and downs than we have seen. Following the initial honeymoon period, those who like him have pretty much stayed with him, while those opposed have not been won over.”

A gender gap continues in the governor’s favorability ratings, with men preferring him over women, 49 percent to 43 percent. Conversely, more women feel unfavorable, 45 percent to 38 percent. Women are also more prone to give Christie a “D” or “F” on his job and men are more likely to bestow an “A” or “B.”

More Republicans (85 percent) feel favorably toward Christie than Democrats who feel unfavorably (61 percent). Independents are split at 43 percent favorable and 42 percent unfavorable.

Christie’s professional, personal traits

Since August 2010, the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll has been asking voters to describe Christie with characteristics drawn mostly from media accounts. The governor’s high point came in April 2011 when more than half said smart, strong leader and independent applied very well. More than 40 percent called him a reformer. Today, 50 percent choose the first three and only 31 percent say reformer describes him very well.

Christie’s negatives have increased since last October. The new results are similar to those of April 2011 and represent the strongest negative responses seen over time, with 56 percent saying arrogant describes the governor well, along with 44 percent self-centered and 41 percent bully.

Although 62 percent of respondents call Christie stubborn, this trait has different connotations among supporters and detractors. “Stubborn, the top trait, is both a positive and a negative,” said Redlawsk. “Eighty-one percent of those who feel unfavorably about Christie say the word fits very well but so do 48 percent who like the governor.”

Not surprisingly, more Democrats choose negative traits to describe Christie while his backers choose positives. Stubborn is the Democrats’ top choice at 76 percent while strong leader tops the poll for Republicans (79 percent). Republicans are least likely to say bully describes Christie (12 percent) and Democrats are least likely to call him fair (10 percent). Independents are much more divided, giving relatively equal weight to both positive and negative traits.

“One reason why the governor’s favorability rating and job performance stay in a narrow range is the strong reactions people have to him on both sides,” said Redlawsk. “These reactions are grounded in perceptions of the governor tapped by this series of trait questions.”

Men are more likely to characterize Christie as smart and a strong leader. Women are more apt to say independent applies. Men are also more likely describe Christie as fair. Both sexes equally agree about the appropriateness of the negative labels applied to the governor.

“This suggests the gender gap is driven more by a less positive view of the governor’s traits than a more negative view among women,” said Redlawsk. “Men are more likely to think the governor is effective as well, which may drive some of the difference.”

Emotional Responses to Christie

Voters also were asked how they felt when hearing or reading about Christie (proud, enthusiastic, worried, or angry). Compared to last October 2011, more voters express worry and anger about the governor, while positive emotions show little change. Women are somewhat more likely than men to express the negative emotions. Not surprisingly, those who do not favor Christie are much more likely to be worried (81 percent) or angry (76 percent); those in his corner are proud (67 percent) and enthusiastic (66 percent) but yet are less likely to express positive emotions than opponents are to be negative.

“Emotions drive a great deal of evaluation of the governor,” Redlawsk said.

Rutgers-Camden/Rowan Merger Still Unpopular; UMDNJ-Rutgers Reconfiguration Gets More Support

Today we revisit public opinion on the proposed merger of Rutgers-Camden with Rowan University, following up on a poll we did in February on this topic. Six weeks ago we found strong opposition. Today the story hasn’t changed. New Jersey voters still overwhelmingly oppose the plan – and for once Democrats, Republicans, and independents are all united in their opposition.

We added a question this time on the other reconfiguration under way – the separation of parts of UMDNJ and merger of them with Rutgers-New Brunswick. This plan is about twice as popular as the Rowan plan, though to be fair that leaves it quite short of majority support. On both plans a large number of voters tell us they “don’t know” what they think, not surprisingly since the issue is clearly complex.

The full release follows. For a PDF of the release with questions and tables, click here.

RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL: NEW JERSEY VOTERS REMAIN OPPOSED TO RUTGERS-CAMDEN/ROWAN MERGER

Merger with parts of UMDNJ gets more support

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – Opposition to the merger of Rutgers-Camden and Rowan University continues unabated, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Statewide, 59 percent of registered voters oppose the merger, while 19 percent support it and 22 percent are unsure of their position. The poll shows little change since an early February Rutgers-Eagleton Poll that found 57 percent opposition and 22 percent support.

“Those working toward the merger have apparently not made their case to New Jerseyans over the past six weeks,” said poll Director David Redlawsk, a professor of political science at Rutgers University. “We’ve seen virtually no movement despite the very public debate on the issue.”

Voters are more supportive of the proposed merger of Rutgers with the Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, the Cancer Institute of New Jersey and the School of Public Health – all units of the University of Medicine and Dentistry New Jersey (UMDNJ). A slight plurality (38 percent to 34 percent) favors the takeover while 28 percent say they don’t know.

“The issues surrounding these changes are complex, so it is not surprising to see such uncertainty,” said Redlawsk. “But among those who do have an opinion, twice as many support the Rutgers-UMDNJ changes as support Rowan taking over the Rutgers-Camden campus.”

Results are from a poll of 601 New Jersey adults, including a subsample of 518 registered voters conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from March 21-27. The registered voter sample has a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.

Opposition to Rutgers-Camden/Rowan merger remains high

The proposed merger of Rutgers-Camden with Rowan University has been championed by Gov. Chris Christie following a recommendation by a commission established to examine a possible merger of Rutgers with portions of UMDNJ. Opposition remains broad and deep, with Democrats, independents, and even Republicans united against the plan.

Opposition by Democrats has actually increased by 10 points to 77 percent, while only 9 percent are now in favor. Republican voters’ opinions on the merger have not changed since February. Only 33 percent favor combining Rowan and Rutgers, while 41 percent oppose the plan. Nearly half of independent voters oppose the plan, little different from the 52 percent opposed six weeks ago.  Independent support is virtually unchanged as well at 21 percent.

“Opposition to this proposal remains bipartisan,” said Redlawsk. “While Republicans are somewhat more supportive, a plurality remains opposed despite the governor’s vocal support.”

There is surprisingly little difference between respondents with ties to either Rowan or Rutgers. About 25 percent of voters with a household member who has enrolled in a Rutgers course on any campus favor the merger. Of the small number of respondents with a Rowan connection, 34 percent express support. “Interestingly, opposition is stronger among voters without a Rutgers connection than with one,” said Relawsk.

Support for Rutgers-UMDNJ reconfiguration

While strongly opposed to the Rutgers-Camden and Rowan merger, voters are more inclined to move significant parts of UMDNJ to Rutgers-New Brunswick.

“Support for the Rutgers-UMDNJ plan remains well below a majority because so many simply have no opinion. But even so, that proposal gets twice the support of the Rowan merger,” noted Redlawsk. “Voters clearly differentiate between the two plans, though in both cases many remain uncertain despite – or perhaps because of – the ongoing public debate.”

Republicans are stronger backers of the Rutgers-UMDNJ merger than Democrats, 42 percent to 33 percent; 39 percent of independents approve of the plan. Only 26 percent of Republicans oppose the merger, compared to 43 percent of Democrats and 29 percent of independents.

“Unlike the proposed merger in south Jersey, the UMDNJ plan shows the more typical partisan split we see on issues championed by Governor Christie,” said Redlawsk. “This may well reflect the fact that the Rowan plan very publicly involves both the governor and key Democratic figures in south Jersey, muddling the partisan differences.”

In contrast to their opposition to the Rutgers-Camden and Rowan University merger, voters with a Rutgers connection or a Rowan connection both support the merger between Rutgers and UMDNJ. There is virtually no difference between the two groups, with about 45 percent of each supporting the plan, while about 30 percent oppose it.

Few regional differences on both plans

As reported in February, voters in southern New Jersey remain no more likely to support the merger of Rutgers-Camden and Rowan University than in other parts of the state. “The small difference we see is not statistically significant, though the number of don’t knows is up for South Jerseyans, which mean overt opposition has dropped somewhat,” said Redlawsk. “But this has been offset by Shore county voters, whose greater uncertainty has been replaced by more opposition.”

There are also few regional differences in support for the UMDNJ plan. Exurban voters appear to show somewhat less support than those in other parts of the state, while Shore county voters are the most supportive.