DREAM Act gets wide support in NJ

With President Obama’s announcement last week that he would implement key parts of the DREAM act (though not all) by executive order, we have the opportunity to give some sense of how NJ feels about the provisions of the proposed bill which last got bottled up in the U.S. Senate. The DREAM act would apply to undocumented immigrants brought here as children, thus having not themselves made a choice to come to the U.S. without legal status. The act would provide an opportunity for citizenship, though Obama’s executive order does not go that far.

In our most recent poll, we had a battery on NJ attitudes toward immigration as part of a project we intend to report at the end of summer. But one of the questions specifically asked about support for the DREAM Act provisions. So given the news, we thought we’d take a look at that question.

The result – wide support in NJ when the provisions of the act are provided. About 40 percent say they strongly support it, and another 40 percent “somewhat” support the bill. This suggest pretty broad support for Obama’s move here in the Garden State, though we did not poll specifically on that since our poll was in the field May 31 – June 4, before Obama’s move.

At one point we thought maybe these numbers are out of whack – even Republicans at least somewhat support the proposal. But consider that Marco Rubio, Republican Senator from Florida was working on a proposal now preempted by Obama, and the fact that other polls have shows support nationally and in interesting states like Arizona, our results make sense. After all, this is about those brought to the U.S. through no decision of their own, and who may not even have a country to be deported to.

Full text of today’s release follows. Click here for a PDF with questions and tables.

RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL: MOST NEW JERSEYANS SUPPORT DREAM ACT

 NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – As President Barack Obama moves to implement parts of the DREAM Act by executive order, bypassing the need for congressional approval, a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll finds that 80 percent of New Jerseyans support the provisions of the proposed law. The DREAM Act would prevent young undocumented immigrants from being deported if they met certain requirements regarding age, criminal background and education or military service.

Last week, the president called his executive order, “the right thing to do for the American people.” While the poll was taken two weeks before Obama’s announcement, the findings suggest that his decision is likely to be popular in New Jersey.

“Though the president’s order does not grant permanent citizenship as the DREAM Act would, the new poll results suggest strong support for his action,” said Poll Director David Redlawsk, a professor of political science at Rutgers. “While some may suggest Obama didn’t go far enough, he is not likely to face significant voter backlash here. However, some of the more lukewarm supporters in our poll might be concerned about Obama taking unilateral action.”

After hearing the specifics of the DREAM Act, Garden Staters are evenly split at about 40 percent each between whether they “strongly” or “somewhat” support it, while 10 percent somewhat oppose the act, and 8 percent strongly oppose it.

Results are from a statewide poll of 1,191 adults using both landlines and cell phones from May 31-June 4. The sample has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Majority support cuts across demographic lines

Reflecting recent national and state polls, which find majority support for the DREAM Act, support in New Jersey cuts across typical demographic divides. While nearly 90 percent of New Jersey’s immigrants support the proposed legislation, even typical opponents of immigration show some support.

“Prior to Obama’s decision, key tenets of the program were supported by Democrats and Republicans, even though the bill did not get past Congress,” said Redlawsk. “Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio, for example, recently offered a similar plan that did not go quite as far as the original DREAM Act. So it is not surprising to see support from both sides of the aisle in New Jersey.”

While 87 percent of Democrats support the DREAM Act provisions, so do 77 percent of independents and even 70 percent of Republicans. Support also extends to a majority of each age cohort; 86 percent the youngest New Jerseyans, 82 percent of 30 to 49 year-olds and 74 percent 50 and older support the proposed law.

Hispanics and African-Americans are more likely to strongly support the DREAM Act than whites, but a large majority of each group supports the proposal: 85 percent of Hispanics express support followed by 82 percent of African-Americans, and 77 percent of white New Jerseyans.

Even those who are more unfavorable to the presence and impact of immigrants in New Jersey favor the DREAM Act’s provisions, with 70 percent at least somewhat supportive of the proposal. And among those who think immigrants hurt the state’s economy, two-thirds still express some support.

“One key point is that the DREAM Act is about those who are brought to the U.S. illegally as children, not through any choice of their own,” noted Redlawsk. “These young people are apparently looked upon much more sympathetically than those who have made their own choice to come.”

Intensity of support varies

Clear majorities of every major demographic group express at least some support for the DREAM Act, but levels of support vary. While 51 percent of Democrats offer strong support, only 34 percent of independents and 30 percent of Republicans do the same. But an additional 40 percent or more of the latter groups “somewhat” support the act.

Majorities of African-Americans and Hispanics strongly support the proposal, compared to 35 percent of whites, although another 42 percent are somewhat supportive. Fifty-nine percent of immigrants strongly support the act, 22 percent higher than U.S.-born Garden Staters.

“This differing intensity suggests that with the president making an end-run around Congress, there is room for those who oppose Obama anyway to shift their position and come out opposed,” said Redlawsk. “So while we show strong support for the DREAM act’s provisions, we cannot be sure that this translates completely into support for Obama’s move. Most likely it does among those already strongly support the law, while creating conflict about the issue for others.”

Among New Jerseyans who say there are too many immigrants in the state, 31 percent still strongly support the DREAM Act while another 39 percent somewhat support it. Meanwhile 47 percent of those who think immigration levels are “just right” give strong support and another 40 percent are somewhat supportive.

Support from those who know, don’t know immigrants

Eighty-six percent of respondents born outside the U.S. support the DREAM Act, with 59 showing strong support. Likewise, 83 percent of those with at least one immigrant parent support the proposal.

New Jerseyans’ amount of contact with immigrants only slightly affects support for the act.  Seventy-three percent who interact with immigrants less than once a month show at least some support for the act; 80 percent of respondents with daily contact show support.

Support also does not depend on the personal importance Garden Staters assign to the issue of immigration. The small number (about 6 percent) who say immigration is their most important issue are more likely to strongly support the DREAM Act than the 20 percent of respondents who say immigration is not an important issue at all. Even so large majorities show at least some support across all levels of issue importance.

Those who consider immigration their most important issue are also the only group showing more than 25 percent strong opposition to the DREAM Act, suggesting the issue is very important both to those in support of and opposed to immigration. Conservative New Jerseyans, who make up about one-fifth of the sample, are the only other group coming close to a large number strongly opposed to the proposed law, at 19 percent.

OBAMA RATINGS SLIP; ROMNEY SEES IMPROVEMENT; BUT OBAMA LEADS BY WIDE MARGIN IN NJ

Continuing our look at the current state of politics in the Garden State, today we release our latest numbers on President Obama, Mitt Romney, and the 2012 matchup here. We confirm what we’ve already been seeing; this remains a non-competitive state for the presidential election. That means we should not expect to see much int he way of actual campaigning for president, except to the extent we get spillover from Pennsylvania, which may be more competitive.

Having said that, in our latest numbers we see a drift downward in Obama’s favorable rating and job performance grade, while Romney has moved up as the primary campaign ended and Republicans in particular accepted their nominee. But favorability ratings aside, Obama continues to have a large lead when we do a head-to-head matchup, little changed from early in the year.

The full text of today’s release is below. Click here to get a PDF of the release, with questions and tables.

OBAMA SLIPS, ROMNEY GAINS AMONG NEW JERSEYANS IN RUTGERS-EAGLETON PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION POLL
Republican candidate trails and still appears to be in a non-competitive race

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – Although he still is viewed favorably by 55 percent of New Jersey’s voters, President Obama’s favorability rating has dipped five percentage points since his high-water mark in February, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. One-third of voters hold unfavorable views of the president and 12 percent have no opinion.

Conversely, Republican candidate Mitt Romney has gained four percentage points since a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll in March, yet only 32 percent of voters have a favorable impression of the former Massachusetts governor. Forty-six percent still have an unfavorable view and 23 percent have not yet made up their mind.

Obama handily beats Romney in a 2012 election matchup, 56 percent to 33 percent, the margin virtually unchanged the past several months. Romney’s single area of strength comes from voters who see strong leadership as a president’s most important trait, where he ties Obama. On all other characteristics, Obama leads. The incumbent also leads across the most important issues identified by New Jersey voters – the economy and jobs, health care and education. Romney leads among the far fewer voters who call the federal deficits their most important issue.

“This poll again confirms the conventional wisdom that New Jersey is simply not competitive in the presidential campaign,” said Poll Director David Redlawsk, a professor of political science at Rutgers. “While Obama’s numbers have slipped slightly, mirroring some national trends, Romney is not yet getting enough traction here to catch up.”

Results are from a poll of 1,191 adults with a subsample of 1,065 registered voters conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from May 31-June 4. The registered voter subsample has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

Obama’s grades vary among groups

After improving from last August to February, Obama’s favorability rating began drifting downward in March, the trend driven by independents and the unemployed (each down eight points since February). Republican support has declined five points to 12 percent. Democrats, at 89 percent favorable, have held strong showing no significant change.

After ticking up from February to March among less-educated voters, Obama’s favorability with this group has dropped 10 points to 52 percent. Concurrently, among those in the lowest income bracket, the president’s favorability is down five points to 62 percent. Fifty-one percent of high-income voters view him favorably. The incumbent’s popularity had declined equally among men and women; 59 percent of women and 51 percent of men now have favorable impressions of Obama.

On presidential job performance, 47 percent of respondents award A or B (down 3 points since March), about a 2-to-1 margin over those who give Obama a C. Twenty-eight percent fail Obama with D or F.

While earning slightly higher grades from Democrats and liberals compared to March, independent voters are less pleased. Only 39 percent (a decline of five points) now award A or B. Voters who are not employed have also lowered Obama’s job performance. While the same number (16 percent) give Obama an A, B’s are down 13 points to 29 percent, with increases in those assigning C, D or F to his efforts.

“While the negative trends are not dramatic, there are some areas where Obama could stand to shore up his support,” said Redlawsk. “In particular, the campaign cannot afford to have independents become more disillusioned”

Romney favorability up with Republicans and unemployed

Republicans (up 15 points) and to a lesser extent conservatives (three points) are happier with Romney than in March, now that he is the GOP standard-bearer. “While conservatives remain less positive than other Republicans, they are slowly becoming more favorable,” Redlawsk noted.

Romney’s favorability also is up among those with lower levels of education – now at 30 percent for those with at least a high school degree and 29 percent for those with some college – as well as with college graduates, up seven points to 37 percent. Romney is down, however, among the most educated voters. His favorability also has improved among both the youngest and oldest cohorts (to 30 percent for 18 to 29-year-olds and 43 percent favorable among the oldest voters).

The Republican candidate’s favorability also has jumped among unemployed voters (13 points to 31 percent) and the lowest income voters (10 points to 27 percent). He gained six points among the wealthiest and dropped the same in each of the middle two income brackets.

The gender gap in favorability toward Romney has widened considerably, with men increasing 10 points to 39 percent favorable, while women stay virtually the same at 26 percent

Obama maintains lead but slips with independents, unemployed

Some groups have shifted toward Romney the last two months. Independent support for Obama has dropped five percentage points to 46 percent, with a corresponding increase to 33 percent who say they will vote for Romney. While still strong, Obama’s lead among these swing voters has dropped from 22 points to 14 points.

Support for Obama by voters who are not employed has fallen 10 points to 55 percent, while Romney has experienced an eight-point gain to 29 percent. While still favoring Obama, 63 percent to 26 percent, more low-income voters are becoming supporting Romney than in March, Redlawsk said. Among the highest-income voters, Obama leads Romney, 50 percent to 41 percent.

Voters want a strong leader, economy and jobs are most important

Echoing the March Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, strong leadership remains a candidate’s most important trait at 27 percent. Thirty-eight percent of Romney backers feel that way compared to 22 percent of Obama supporters. The president’s supporters are more likely to say that a candidate’s most important quality is that he “cares about people like me” followed closely by “strong leader.”

Across character traits, Obama wins in every category except “strong leader,” where he trails Romney by one percentage point. The president easily beats the challenger among voters who believe it is important for the candidate to “share my values,” “care about people like me,” have “high moral character,” be “consistent in his beliefs” and “bring people together.”

More than 60 percent of voters – regardless of candidate preference – say jobs and the economy is the most important issue, well ahead of health care (11 percent) and education (9 percent). Obama wins easily on the economy – 53 percent to 36 percent for Romney. He also wins three-quarters of the vote among those who say that health care or education is the most important issue. Romney wins a majority of voters who say the federal budget deficit is their top priority.

“While Romney is running heavily on the economic challenges we face, this issue does not seem to get him much traction in New Jersey, at least not to date,” said Redlawsk. “This is most likely a consequence of not being a battleground. There is essentially no active campaigning here, though the candidates do come to New Jersey to raise money.”

CHRISTIE RATING CLIMBS TO 50 PERCENT IN RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL

Our latest polling shows NJ Gov. Chris Christie at his best favorability rating since taking office, the first time he has hit 50 percent in one of our polls. A favorability rating is just what it sounds like – the question is whether the respondent has a “favorable” or “unfavorable” impression of a given political figure. Other polls have had Christie’s job rating above 50 percent a couple times, but that’s a different question. In any case, he is now up in favorability, 50 percent to 39 percent, a net favorable rating of +11. This is up from late March when the score was 49 percent to 42 percent for a +4 point net favorable rating. This puts the governor close to where he was last October and November, before his favorability declined over the winter.

Interestingly, though, the improvement is entirely driven by men – women remain evenly split at 43 percent favorable and 45 percent unfavorable, where they have been for quite some time. Men have jumped 7 points, to 56 percent favorable, with only 31 percent unfavorable.

At the same time, NJ voters are more positive about the direction of the state with 51 percent saying it is going in the right direction. But, a follow up question suggests a lot of voters feel pretty neutral about where NJ is going – just over half of those saying right direction, think it is because things are getting better. The rest say its the right direction just because things are not getting worse! Likewise, of the 40 percent who say the state is still on the wrong track, only 30 percent say it is because things are getting worse. Two thirds say the wrong track is because things are simply not getting better. Put it all together, and half of NJ voters say things are neither getting better nor worse, while 26 percent think they are getting better, and 12 percent say things are getting worse in New Jersey. So not overly optimistic, but not all that pessimistic either.

The text of the full release is below. Click here for a PDF of the release with relevant questions and tables.

CHRISTIE RATING CLIMBS TO 50 PERCENT IN RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL

Governor’s highest favorability since taking office but gender gap grows

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – Gov. Chris Christie’s favorability and job performance ratings are at their highest since he became New Jersey’s chief executive in January 2010, according to the latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. For the first time, 50 percent of registered New Jersey voters feel favorably toward Christie – an increase of four percentage points since late March. Those with an unfavorable opinion have declined to 39 percent, while 11 percent continue to hold no opinion.

Christie’s job performance grades also have improved as voters become more favorable toward him. The governor received an A or B grade from 46 percent of respondents, up 3 points. Those grading him as D or F fell three points to 29 percent. Almost one-quarter (24 percent) continue to grade him C, which is unchanged since March.

Completing the trifecta of improved ratings, just over half now say New Jersey is going in the right direction, up four points. Meanwhile, “wrong track” responses remain steady at 40 percent, while 9 percent are unsure about how the state is doing. Half of voters also believe things have gotten neither better nor worse.

“After some weakening between November and March, Governor Christie’s favorability rating has rebounded to as positive as we’ve seen,” said Poll Director David Redlawsk, a professor of political science at Rutgers. “Despite recent controversies over plans for Rutgers and less-than-positive economic news, voters are trending toward more positive ratings for the governor and the state. But more improvement will probably require more voters to think things are getting better, not just standing still.”

Results are from a poll of 1,191 adults with a subsample of 1,065 registered voters conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from May 31-June 4. The registered voter subsample has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

As Christie ratings improve, gender gap grows

Men primarily have boosted Christie’s favorability; women remain much less positive. The result is a near doubling of the gender gap since the last poll. In late March, 49 percent of men and 43 percent of women were favorable toward Christie. Now, 56 percent of men feel the same while women have barely budged to 45 percent favorable, resulting in an 11 point gap, up from 6 points just over two months ago.

“The gap between men and women on the negative side is even larger,” said Redlawsk. “Only 31 percent of men feel unfavorable, compared to 45 percent of women. The governor has simply not been able to win over women as well as he has men.”

Some groups now more favorable toward Christie, but divides remain

Independent voters have also driven up Christie’s favorability ratings. The group’s positive feelings have increased by 12 percentage points to 55 percent since March. Only 27 percent of Democrats view the governor favorably, and GOP support has actually declined from 85 percent to 79 percent. This most likely simply reflects a “ceiling effect,” since the vast majority of Republicans do support Christie, Redlawsk said. “Interestingly, while Democrats have shown little change, self-described liberals are actually 10 points more positive, at 29 percent,” he added.

The poll also finds that both those who are least educated and voters with a college degree became 10 points more favorable, as did voters under 30. Voters at both ends of the income scale have become much more favorable, while those in the middle becoming somewhat less so.

“The recent intense focus on tax cuts may be one reason high-income voters who would benefit the most see the governor in a better light,” said Redlawsk. “But lower income voters also have become more positive. This makes sense given that earlier polling we’ve done shows low-income voters likely to overestimate how much they would gain from the tax cut proposals.”

While changes in the governor’s favorability rating show great variation across groups, his job performance grade remains relatively steady across the same groups. For example, while independent voters are 12 points more favorable, this increase does not translate into a significant grade improvement. Half of independents give Christie an A or B, up only three points since March. Although Republicans seem to feel somewhat less favorable, they show little change in grades, with 72 percent giving an A or B, compared to 75 percent in March.

“Most interesting is how lower income voters – now 47 percent favorable – remain harsher in their grading, with only 38 percent giving an A or B, while 36 percent give a D or F,” noted Redlawsk. “With this group, favorability does not translate to a good job performance grade.”

Partisan and gender gap in views of state’s direction

While most respondents say New Jersey is headed in the right direction, the gender gap apparent in Christie’s ratings shows up as well: 58 percent of men say the state is heading in the right direction, and 33 percent disagree. But women are evenly split, with 45 percent positive about New Jersey’s direction and 46 percent negative.

Fifty-three percent of Democrats believe New Jersey is on the wrong track, while 53 percent of independents and 74 percent of Republicans say the opposite. Voters in either public or private union households are more likely to disapprove of the state’s direction: 58 percent of those in public union households and 49 percent in private union households think the state is on the wrong track. However, 56 percent of non union households are positive about where New Jersey is headed.

Voters approve state’s direction because things are not getting worse

Regardless of the state’s direction, half the voters think that New Jersey’s situation has basically remained unchanged since March. To determine their views, respondents were asked different questions depending on their positive or negative feelings.

Among the 51 percent of voters who view the state’s direction positively, about half report they are positive because “things are changing for the better” while 46 percent say New Jersey’s direction is positive “simply because things are not getting worse.” At the same time, among the 40 percent who say the state is on the wrong track, two-thirds say this is “simply because things are not getting better,” while 30 percent say it is because “things are changing for the worse.”

“The follow-up questions tell us that voters feel only somewhat positive,” said Redlawsk. “Across all voters, only 26 percent think things are actually getting better, while 12 percent say they are getting worse. Most are somewhere in the middle.”

Beliefs about the state’s direction are intertwined with favorability toward Christie, as 47 percent of those favorable toward the governor say New Jersey is changing for the better, compared to just 4 percent of those who are unfavorable. However, this latter group does not necessarily believe New Jersey is changing for the worse, since 61 percent say they see little change for better or worse.

Unsurprisingly, partisan divisions follow a similar pattern, with Democrats and independents more likely to believe little is changing in New Jersey (57 percent and 51 percent, respectively), while almost half of Republicans (48 percent) say the state is changing for the better.

MAJORITY OF NEW JERSEYANS SAY RAVI’S SENTENCE NOT TOUGH ENOUGH

The story of former Rutgers student Dharun Ravi’s trial and sentencing for bias intimidation and invasion of privacy stemming from spying on his roommate Tyler Clementi, has been a huge one in New Jersey and nationally.  The New York Times has a summary and links to its coverage here. In our latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll we asked two questions about the case: how much had people in NJ heard about it and what did they think of the sentence imposed on Ravi. Results are detailed in the press release below. Quick summary. Nearly everyone has heard at least something about the case – only 3% say they heard nothing. And a majority (51%) of all NJ adults believe that the sentence handed down was not tough enough. Only 7% say it was too tough, while 39% say it was what Ravi deserves.

We would have liked to have asked more questions about this case, but unfortunately public polling like we do always operates with a tension between what we would like to do and the amount of money we have to do it. This poll included several question batteries, including our usual stuff on the political front, as well as some research questions being used by faculty and grad students. (We’ll be releasing more on this poll next week.) When we tested it all, the questionnaire was far too long for our budget (and probably would have been long enough to annoy respondents.) So things had to go. That left us with very little room to ask about the Clementi-Ravi case, so we did our best. In the end, even with just these two simple questions, we seem to have gotten a sence of what New Jersey thinks about the sentencing – a majority would have liked to have seen Ravi pay a higher price.

EDIT: 6/7/12 9:00am.  There have been some challenges to our poll this morning which we would like to note. Mark Di Ionno of the Star-Ledger writes that we overstate our results somewhat and that, more importantly, our question about Ravi leaves out important information. Since as an academic survey research center we are very much about education, it seems like a good idea to provide some reaction to these concerns. On the first, that we overstate the results, Mark says we characterized the findings as “most” NJ residents think the sentence was too lenient. We did NOT do that – we said most New Jerseyans had HEARD about the case, and a MAJORITY believe this. Unfortunately regardless of how we write the  press release, we do not control how the media reports it. Nonetheless we may not have been careful enough to make clear that opinion is quite split, focusing more on the majority position than on the other two.

The second point, about question wording, is an important one. We know question wording matters, and there is always a tension between developing questions that are too long and complex versus that do not get enough information across. In this case, we made the decision to write a shorter question focused on the key aspects of the sentence, particularly the jail time. Would the results be different if we had included more details – the exact amount of community service and the fine imposed? Frankly we don’t know, of course, since that isn’t what we did. The decision here was that most of the focus of public discussion has been on the jail sentence and whether it was appropriate. So our question led with that but also noted the existence of the probation (related to a jail sentence) and community service. It is hard to assess whether including the additional details would have made people more or less likely to believe the sentence was appropriate. While we suspect it would have made relatively little difference (perhaps moving some people one way and others the other way), our assessment of the public discussion of the sentence is that most of it focused on the issue of jail time, and thus that was the most salient thing for public opinion.

Reasonable people can disagree, and in retrospect it would have been nice to be able to test the components of the sentence themselves. In any case, we are committed to transparency which is why Mark Di Ionno could actually see the full question we asked. All reputable pollsters release the exact text of their questions so that you can judge for yourself what was done.

END EDIT

Full text of the release follows. Click here for a PDF of the release with questions and tables.

RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL: MAJORITY OF NEW JERSEYANS SAY RAVI’S SENTENCE NOT TOUGH ENOUGH

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – Just over half of New Jersey residents believe Dharun Ravi’s sentence for bias intimidation and invasion of privacy in the Tyler Clementi case was “not tough enough,” according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Thirty-nine percent think Ravi got “the sentence he deserves,” seven percent believe the punishment was “too tough,” and four percent are unsure.

Ravi was sentenced on May 21 to 30 days in jail, three years probation, community service and a fine for using a webcam to spy on Clementi, who was his roommate at Rutgers. He could have been sentenced up to 10 years in prison. Belief that Ravi’s sentence is too lenient holds up across a wide range of demographics, with just a few exceptions.

Most New Jerseyans had heard about the case. More than three-quarters (78 percent) say they had heard a lot, compared to 19 percent who had heard only a little and 3 percent who had heard nothing at all.

“Virtually everyone had heard about the case and has an opinion on it,” said Poll director David Redlawsk, a professor of political science at Rutgers. “The case gripped New Jersey and the country, and the sentencing has generated strong opinions. In the end New Jerseyans agree with a recent statement by Tyler Clementi’s parents that Dharun Ravi’s sentence is not enough.”

Results are from a poll of 1,191 adults conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from May 31-June 4. The sample has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Opinions about sentencing cut across most demographic divides

Many of the typical divisions seen among subgroups do not exist in opinions about Ravi’s sentencing. Democrats, independents, and Republicans show virtually the same pattern: at least half of each group (52 percent, 50 percent, and 52 percent, respectively) think Ravi’s sentencing was too lenient while nearly four in 10 of each group (39 percent, 38 percent, and 38 percent, respectively) say Ravi got the sentence he deserves. Liberals, moderates and conservatives show a similar pattern.

Black and white New Jerseyans feel similarly: 51 percent of whites and 47 percent of blacks believe the sentence was not tough enough. Even more Hispanic Garden Staters (62 percent) say Ravi got off too easily while 30 percent said the sentence was fair. About 40 percent of whites and blacks say the sentence was just.

When considering the age of respondents, the general patterns of the full adult sample hold with one difference: 57 percent of younger residents say the punishment was not harsh enough, higher than any other age group.

“Those who are closest in age to Ravi and Clementi may feel the case more directly and may be empathizing more with the victim than older New Jerseyans,” said Redlawsk.

Although few say that Ravi’s sentence was too tough, men are more likely than women to hold this opinion, by a 10 to 3 ratio. More than half of women (52 percent) and 49 percent of men say the sentence was not tough enough, while 41 percent of women and 36 percent of men say Ravi got the sentence he deserves.

Less educated residents say Ravi should pay a higher price. Well over half – 56 percent – of those without a college degree say the sentence should have been stronger; 48 percent of college graduates and 44 percent with even more education agree. Better educated respondents are evenly split over the sentence at about 44 percent. Only one-third with less education say the sentence is appropriate.

Immigrants more likely to believe sentence too tough

Immigrant status clearly stands out as a difference maker among respondents. Immigrants or those with a parent born outside the United States are much more likely to say that Ravi’s sentence is too harsh. While 53 percent of New Jerseyans born here say the sentence was not tough enough, only 40 percent of immigrants agree. Non-native New Jerseyans are more likely to believe Ravi got what he deserves (43 percent), while another 12 percent say the sentence was too harsh. But only 38 percent of those born in the U.S. say the sentence was appropriate, while 5 percent see it as too tough.

New Jerseyans with a parent born outside the country follow a similar pattern: 9 percent believe Ravi’s sentence was too tough, 43 percent believe it was not tough enough and 44 percent believe he got the punishment he deserves. In contrast, a majority (55 percent) with parents born here believes the punishment was insufficient, whereas 36 percent thought it was appropriate and 5 percent thought it was too extreme.

“It seems those who are immigrants or who come from immigrant families are more supportive of Ravi, who is an immigrant himself,” noted Redlawsk. “This may come from a sense of community among immigrants, who see Ravi as one of them, though it does not necessarily suggest they condone his actions.”

Religious beliefs also seem to define differing opinions: more Catholics (55 percent) and Protestants (53 percent) believe Ravi’s sentence was too lenient, while 45 percent of Jewish residents agree. But those of other religions – including a small group of Muslim respondents – are more likely to believe Ravi’s sentencing was “too tough” (10 percent, compared to 5 percent each for Catholics and Protestants), much less likely to believe his sentence was “not tough enough” (39 percent) and more likely than Catholics and Protestants to believe that he “got the punishment he deserves” (47 percent, compared to 36 percent of both Catholics and Protestants).

“The ‘other’ category for religion includes a small group of Muslims, as well as other respondents who do not characterize themselves in one of the three largest religious groups,” said Redlawsk. “While we do not have enough data to analyze Muslims independently, all signs point to a greater belief that Ravi was treated too harshly in being punished for his actions among these residents.”

Awareness influences opinion

While most New Jerseyans heard at least something about the Ravi story, those who had heard a lot are more likely to believe that Ravi’s sentencing was not tough enough. More than half of this group – 52 percent – thinks his sentence should have been harsher. But among those who heard less about the story, 45 percent feel the same. Not surprisingly, those who had heard less about the case are more likely to be unsure about the sentence, with 9 percent saying they “don’t know” compared to only 3 percent of those who had heard a lot about it.

It’s summer, but we’ll still be around!

The school year might be over, but at the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling, our work continues.  Results of the next Rutgers-Eagleton Poll will be released during the next couple of weeks, and will include some new numbers on Christie and on the 2012 Obama-Romney election. In the meantime, we’ll be re-activating our social media presence here, on Facebook, and also on Twitter.  It’s important to make connections to the public on many levels not only by releasing our data to the mainstream media, but also by streaming key bits of information directly to our social media followers.

Just recently, some of our ECPIP staffers were at the 67^th annual American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) conference in Orlando, Florida where the main theme focused on “evaluating new frontiers in public opinion and social research.”  Many of the presentations, papers, and posters explored the importance of innovative new survey techniques that primarily centered on the Internet – particularly through social networking sites like Facebook and Twitter.  As our staffers learned at the conference, public opinion is entering a new era where people are becoming harder to reach through just landline and cell phones.  New technologies like smartphones, iPads, text messaging, Skype, and avatar-based gaming are now being explored as alternative possibilities for data collection and assessing public sentiment.  Researchers are collecting and analyzing Facebook statuses and Tweets to explore how public opinion through these sites can reflect, express, and predict overall public opinion and behavior.  Yet, not everyone uses the Internet or shares their views on social networking sites, and some people are more likely to do so more than others.  So in this continually changing world of communication technology, the conference did an amazing job of presenting the challenges and obstacles that lie ahead for us survey researchers and how we can possibly bridge the gap between our traditional methods and the future of public opinion.

If you’re reading this blog, you’re probably well aware of the vital role polling plays as an essential feedback mechanism for policy makers.  What you may not be aware of, however, is that social media also provides essential feedback for us at ECPIP.  We don’t just post results from our surveys on our social media feeds; we also try to find interesting content from the world of politics, state and national issues, other research and polls, and we even sprinkle in some fun things here and there.  Although the responses we get from our followers aren’t exactly scientific, they do create an essential feedback loop that helps us better understand the interests of those who follow our polls.

With that in mind, we’d like to encourage you to not only follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and our blog, but to also actively participate in discussion threads with shares, comments, and “likes.”  The more we hear from you, the better we’ll be able to understand the public that we aim to serve through our research and polling.  This summer we plan to be very active in social media, posting content on both Facebook and Twitter, so be sure to come along for the ride.