Head-to-Head with Buono, Christie Continues a Strong Lead, But…

Following up on Wednesday’s release on ratings for Gov. Chris Christie, today we look more closely at this year’s election for governor. NJ state Sen. Barbara Buono is the presumed Democratic challenger, so we look at head-to-head matches between her and Christie. We also asked voters to name the most important problem facing the state and to tell us how closely they are following the race.
Bottom line is that Christie continues to hold a very large lead – 30 points – over the nearly unknown Buono. But, this lead is down from 42 points in February, as Democrats have begun to shift to Buono after flirting with Christe, post-Hurricane Sandy. Still, unless Buono can do more than bring the Democratic base home, Christie is in good shape. But there is a lot of time until election day in November.

The text of the release follows. Click here for a PDF of the release with text, questions, and tables.

CHRISTIE CONTINUES TO HOLD LARGE LEAD OVER BUONO, THOUGH SOME TIGHTENING EVIDENT; MOST EXPECT HIM TO WIN

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – N.J. Governor Chris Christie maintains a dominating, yet shrinking, lead over presumed Democratic gubernatorial candidate state Senator Barbara Buono, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Christie now holds a 30 point lead among registered voters, 57 percent to 27 percent, down from his 42 point lead in a February Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Christie’s support has dropped six points, while Buono has picked up six points over the past two months, the new poll shows.

Regardless of which candidate they prefer, 8 in 10 voters believe Christie will win a second term. Even 61 percent of Buono supporters expect her to lose.

While Christie’s favorability rating has declined six points since February, Buono continues to struggle with name recognition. Just 18 percent have a favorable impression of Buono, 12 percent are unfavorable, and 70 percent have no opinion.

Nonetheless Buono has made significant inroads, but only because she is finally leading among Democratic voters along with some key constituent groups that usually lean Democratic. Independents remain overwhelmingly in Christie’s camp.

“While Christie maintains a large lead, some tightening is all but inevitable, since we expect most Democrats to vote the party line in November,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. “But unless Buono can make gains among independents and also get Democrats energized, she is going to have a long road ahead.”

Voters say taxes and jobs are the most important problems facing New Jersey. While Christie’s overall job approval is high at 68 percent, voters are much less positive about his performance on the economy and jobs (42 percent approval) and taxes (37 percent approval). Nonetheless, Christie overwhelms Buono, even among those who are unhappy with these parts of his performance.

Results are from a poll of 923 New Jersey adults conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from April 3-7. The sample includes 819 registered voters reported on here, with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.

More Democrats now backing Buono, but more than a quarter in Christie’s camp

In February Christie led Buono by four points among Democratic voters. Two months later Buono has an 18 point lead with Democrats, 49 percent to 31 percent. But nearly 20 percent of Democrats remain unsure of whom they will vote for. Buono now also holds leads among some parts of the Democratic coalition including liberals (50 percent for Buono), blacks (45 percent) and voters under 30 years old (43 percent). And while she wins a majority of voters who supported former Governor Jon Corzine , more than a quarter of them say they plan to vote for Christie.

Christie has lost few of his 2009 voters, with only about 10 percent either planning to vote for Buono or unsure. He maintains large leads among voters at all income and education levels, and even has a 53 percent to 29 percent lead among women. His margin among men is even larger at 60 percent to 24 percent. Christie’s support is also statewide, with large majorities in every region except urban counties, where voters are almost evenly split, giving Christie a small four point lead. One key to Christie’s continuing support is the 65 to 16 percent lead he holds among independent voters.

“While Buono has made some very noticeable gains among her base, many of the voters Democrats usually count on continue to support Christie,” said Redlawsk. “She can’t afford to give Christie a quarter of black voters, a majority of women, and even a third of liberals, as she does right now.”

At this still-early stage of election season, about half of voters say they are following the election either “Very closely” (12 percent) or “Somewhat closely” (36 percent.) But another third are not following the campaign closely, and 19 percent are not following it at all. Christie’s lead over Buono is just as strong among those paying careful attention as those who admit they are paying little attention.

Regardless of whom they support, most think that Christie will get a second term.  Even most Democrats (70 percent), those unfavorable toward Christie (64 percent), those favorable toward Buono (75 percent), and those who plan to vote for Buono (61 percent) think that the governor will win in November.

Christie’s ratings drop, but Buono sees no increase in recognition

As reported earlier this week, Christie’s favorability rating is down 6 points from February, while his overall job performance approval dropped 5 points. Nonetheless, about two-thirds of voters respond positively to the Governor, and few have no opinion.

Buono, however, remains largely unknown statewide and has seen no increase in recognition or favorability since February. Even 63 percent of Democratic voters report no impression of her. Three in ten Democrats are favorable, while only seven percent have an unfavorable impression of the Democratic candidate.

Three-quarters of independents have no opinion of Buono, while 12 percent view her favorably, and 13 percent are unfavorable. Buono also remains all but unknown to 72 percent of Republicans, with just 4 percent favorable and 24 percent unfavorable. Even most typical Democratic supporters such as women (74 percent), black voters (68 percent) and voters belonging to public union households (66 percent) have no impression of Buono.

“Until voters know more about her, it is unlikely that Buono will make much more progress,” said Redlawsk. “While some will vote against Christie no matter who his opponent is, challengers generally need to develop good name recognition to unseat an incumbent.”

Taxes and jobs top concerns

Asked to name New Jersey’s most important problem in their own words, 26 percent of voters identify taxes. Mentions of lack of jobs and unemployment follow closely behind at 24 percent. Ten percent name the economy in general, and another ten percent say education is the most important problem. The list is rounded out with crime and drugs at eight percent and government spending, waste, and corruption at six percent.

Word Cloud for “In just one or two words, please tell me what the most important problem is in New Jersey today.” Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, April 3-7, 2013

Democrats are more likely to say unemployment and jobs are most important (26 percent), followed by education and taxes, which tie for second at 16 percent. For independents, taxes are the top concern, with one-third expressing frustration with high taxes. Unemployment and jobs follows at 20 percent. Just over a third of Republicans also says taxes are most important, with another 24 percent calling jobs and unemployment the top problem.

Sixty-one percent of voters who name taxes as the most important problem believe Christie is spending too little time on the problem. Similarly, 59 percent of voters who say jobs are the key problem, express the same concern. Moreover, only a minority of all voters approve of the Governor’s performance in either of these areas. Despite this, Christie easily beats Buono among voters naming taxes or jobs as their top problem; illuminating the problem she faces in trying to unseat the Governor.

“Buono has clearly made progress, but so far she’s only convinced the voters who were always likely to vote against Christie,” said Redlawsk. “Even if many Democrats come home to their party, Buono has to do more to convince voters who disapprove Christie’s performance on the key problems to give her a chance. Otherwise Gov. Christie may coast to re-election on the strength of his overall job approval and favorability, even if the race gets a little closer.”

Latest on Gov. Chris Christie’s Ratings

Today we begin our next series of press releases from the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. The latest poll was in the field from April 3-7, and has a total of 923 NJ adult respondents, along with 819 registered voters. Our first focus is on our governor. We continue to see very high ratings for Gov. Christie both in terms of his favorability and his job performance.  But, five months after Hurricane Sandy we also see our first significant downward tick in his ratings. It appears most of it is due to Democrats who are starting to moderate their opinion of the governor. As we would expect, before Sandy Democrats on the whole were quite negative. Since Sandy hit, they have been uncharacteristically positive. Now we see that softening a bit. But, at the same time Christie’s support is holding up well with independents, and of course Republicans are solidly in his camp as they mostly were before the storm.

This time around we gave voters a chance to tell us in their own words why they are favorable or unfavorable toward Christie. Hurricane Sandy is a big reason for his support, especially for Democrats. Interestingly, virtually no Republicans named Sandy as their reason for liking Christie. On the other hand, for those who feel unfavorable, we find words like “bully” and reactions to his education reforms and battles with the teachers’ union leading the way.

The text of the release follows. Click here for a PDF with the full release text, along with questions and tables.

FIVE MONTHS AFTER SANDY CHRISTIE STILL GOING STRONG,
 BUT RATINGS SHOW SOME SLIPPAGE, RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL FINDS

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – Five months after Hurricane Sandy, New Jersey voters continue to give Gov. Chris Christie high marks for his job performance, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. However, weak spots have emerged and in general, Christie’s ratings have dropped slightly since February.

While overwhelmingly approving (87 percent) Christie’s post-Sandy recovery efforts, only 42 percent of voters approve of his handling of New Jersey’s economy and jobs and only 37 percent approve of his tax policy. About 50 percent approve of Christie’s efforts on education, the budget, and crime.

Christie’s work on Sandy recovery drives up his general approval ratings despite unhappiness about economic issues: 68 percent approve his overall job performance, 64 percent have a favorable impression, and 60 percent grade Christie A or B.

Polling has shown Christie all but invincible in the gubernatorial race, but there is some evidence his ratings are coming down from his record highs. Overall job performance is down five points and favorability is down six points from a February Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Christie’s approval on both the economy and taxes has fallen three points.

“Christie still has ratings any governor would love, but all-time highs generally come back toward earth over time,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. “With Sandy recovery helping drive overall approval and voters all but ecstatic at his efforts there, Christie remains in great political shape.”

Results are from a poll of 923 New Jersey adults conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from April 3-7. A subsample of 819 registered voters reported on here has a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.

Christie’s “character”

Twenty-six percent of voters maintain an unfavorable impression of Christie, up 6 points from February, while 64 percent of voters have a favorable impression. Democrats are most responsible for the overall decline, showing a 14-point drop to 45 percent. Independents (71 percent favorable) and Republicans (90 percent) show no significant change.

Favorability among men declined from 74 percent in February to 65 percent, while women’s admiration decreased by four points to 62 percent. Christie continues to receive very high favorability ratings from areas hardest hit by Sandy – northwest exurban (72 percent) and shore (75 percent) counties.

Among those viewing the governor favorably, one quarter use a range of character terms such as honest, integrity, and frankness to explain why they like him. Many mention how Christie “speaks his mind,” is a “straight shooter,” and “sticks to his beliefs.” But the single most named reason (18 percent) for liking Christie is his post-Sandy recovery work. Another 10 percent mention his governing and policy decisions.

Word Cloud for “In just a word or two can you tell me why you have a favorable impression of Gov. Christie?” Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, April 3-7, 2013

Among the 26 percent who dislike Christie, 30 percent name similar traits as supporters: but they question his character, honesty, and integrity, with many calling him a bully. The single most often named issue focuses on teachers and education (18 percent). Sixteen percent say Christie is uncaring, has the wrong priorities and is hurting the state and its citizens, and 10 percent cite his handling of such economic matters as the budget, taxes and fiscal responsibility.

Word Cloud for “In just a word or two can you tell me why you have an unfavorable impression of Gov. Christie?” Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, April 3-7, 2013

Democratic Christie supporters are mostly driven by Sandy (35 percent) and by perceptions of the governor’s honesty and integrity (20 percent).  But only 3 percent of Republicans cite Sandy as their primary reason. For GOP voters, honesty and integrity drive support at 28 percent, followed by Christie’s leadership (14 percent) and policy positions (12 percent). Among independents, 27 percent name honesty as their top reason for liking Christie, followed by Sandy recovery work at 16 percent.

Democrats’ unfavorable views of the governor are driven mostly by dislike of his education policies (18 percent) and impressions of Christie as confrontational (14 percent). Another 14 percent believe the governor does not care about New Jersey’s citizens.

“Christie’s natural Republican constituency likes his attitude and policies and sees him as a strong leader,” said Redlawsk. “Sandy doesn’t matter much to them. But for Democrats, we see clear evidence that the Sandy recovery is critical to support and probably also contributes to their sense of his integrity and honesty. Without those Democrats, Christie’s ratings would be much closer to where they were before Sandy hit.”

Christie job approval still high but dropping among Democrats

Almost six-in-10 voters (58 percent) continue to think New Jersey is headed in the right direction. Just over one-in-three (35 percent) continue to say the state is on the wrong track. Even so, the respondents’ approval of Christie’s overall job performance has dropped five points to 68 percent, while disapproval has risen slightly to 26 percent.

Democrats are clearly responsible for the decline; their approval has dropped 11 points since February to 51 percent. Three-quarters of independents and 93 percent of Republicans remain steady in their approval.

“This decline among Democrats is not surprising as we enter an election season,” noted Redlawsk. “As long as independents are strongly on Christie’s side he will continue to draw very positive ratings. If they move away, things could get interesting.”

While strongly backing Christie’s response to Sandy, more voters disapprove than favor his performance on the economy and jobs, 49 percent to 42 percent. More men (46 percent) than women (39 percent) like Christie’s economic performance. His highest approval on the economy comes from the exurban (54 percent) and Jersey Shore (47 percent) regions of the state.

Voters’ views on taxes show a similar, but more negative pattern. Overall, just 37 percent approve of the job Christie is doing on taxes while 56 percent disapprove. Sixty percent of women disapprove of Christie’s handling of taxes, and men are now more likely to disapprove (51 percent) than approve (42 percent).

Approval of the governor’s performance on education, an area of strength in February, is now more tenuous; 49 percent approve (down five points) and 44 percent who disapprove (up five points). Christie does better on the state budget, with 50 percent approving and 41 percent disapproving of his performance – appraisals that have remained steady over the past two months. Voters are much more positive on crime: 55 percent approve and 29 percent disapprove of his performance on this issue.

Christie continues strong in Hurricane Sandy approval ratings – 87 percent approve compared to only 9 percent who disapprove and 4 percent who are unsure. He continues to gets high marks from many of his usual detractors: those who view him unfavorably (75 percent approval), Democrats (87 percent), women (87 percent), black voters (82 percent), Hispanic voters (87 percent) and public union households (87 percent).

When asked to grade Christie’s efforts, 21 percent award an A, while another 39 percent give a B. Democrats have become their most critical graders since Sandy – 43 percent grade him A or B,  down from 52 percent in February. Independents have held steady with 64 percent awarding A or B, while 88 percent of Republicans (the same percentage as in November 2012) assign top grades, an increase of 8 points. Christie continues to get his highest marks from storm-battered exurban and shore regions, though down six and seven points respectively from the last poll.

A Post-Sandy Follow Up

The headline on today’s poll release should not surprise anyone in New Jersey – the vast major of Garden Staters – 74 percent – say life here is not back to normal after Superstorm Sandy, nearly four months ago. Moreover, most see it as a transformative event, and want rebuilding the shore to go slowly to give time to assess the implications of rebuilding. Not a lot else to say about the release itself; it is part of what we plan to be a regular effort to assess where things are after the storm, which began with a release on the impact of Sandy, and another on its political implications, back in November.

The text of today’s release follows. Click here for a PDF of the release text with all questions and tables.

LIFE IN NEW JERSEY NOT YET NORMAL AFTER SANDY, RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL FINDS

 NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – Nearly three-quarters of New Jerseyans say life is not yet back to normal almost four months after Superstorm Sandy, and 77 percent call the storm a “transformative event,” according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. A quarter of those personally affected by the storm report not having fully recovered, with more than 60 percent of those respondents reporting unrepaired damage to their home.

However, most New Jerseyans are not in a rush to repair damage at the shore; 62 percent say assessing potential for future damage should take precedence over rushing to rebuild before the summer tourist season. Almost eight in 10 (78 percent) want government to pay for repairs and rebuilding, although about half of these residents say property owners should share the cost. Seventeen percent want property owners to shoulder the entire burden.

“New Jersey will be dealing with the effects of Superstorm Sandy for years,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers. “Whether Sandy will prove transformative depends on how its effects influence decisions about rebuilding and future mitigation.”

Results are from a poll of 796 adult New Jerseyans conducted statewide among landline and cell phone households from Jan. 30 – Feb. 3 with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Government’s efforts earn good grades

Ninety-two percent of Garden Staters say Gov. Christie is handling Sandy recovery efforts at least “somewhat well”; 62 percent say “very well” though this top mark is down seven points from a November Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. President Obama doesn’t fare quite as well – 82 percent say his post-Sandy work is going at least somewhat well, but only 44 percent say his efforts are going very well, a 12-point drop since November.

Respondents continue to give generally positive marks to FEMA and the Red Cross, although both are clearly down since November. Twenty-five percent say FEMA has handled its duties very well, a 12-point dip since the last poll. The Red Cross has experienced a nine-point drop to 42 percent very well over the same period. About 12 percent of Garden Staters affected by the storm report using the services of any disaster-assistance agency, up just three points from November.

Local government also receives positive ratings on Sandy recovery. Thirty-nine percent say their local government is doing very well with recovery, while another 38 percent say somewhat well.

“New Jerseyans continue to feel that first responders and political leadership have done a good job handling Sandy and its aftermath,” said Redlawsk, “but some drop in sentiment from November is probably inevitable as the recovery continues. Few feel truly negative, however.”

Those personally affected by Sandy are five points more likely than those who were not to say the governor is handling recovery very well.  Even eight of 10 residents who don’t like Christie personally give him positive ratings on Sandy recovery. In a reversal of his typical support, more women (66 percent) than men (58 percent) are likely to say Christie as doing very well.

Although Obama also receives strong marks for his Sandy efforts, partisanship defines his support: 15 percent of his detractors say he has handled Sandy recovery very well.  Only 28 percent of Republicans, 41 percent of independents and 55 percent of Democrats give the president top marks. Like Christie, those directly affected by Sandy give Obama higher ratings than those who were not. Overall, though, majorities in every demographic group give both the governor and the president positive ratings.

Sandy’s impact and recovery

In an interesting anomaly, only 46 percent of respondents said they had been “personally” affected by Superstorm Sandy, a large decline from the two-thirds who said so in a poll taken in Sandy’s immediate aftermath. “It may simply be that for those least affected – perhaps losing power for a few hours, or having fallen trees blocking roads – the effects have faded from memory,” Redlawsk said. “It is likely that right after Sandy, even small inconveniences felt large. Months later, those who faced more significant disruptions are most likely to still say Sandy had personal impact.”

Fifty-one percent of shore residents say they were personally affected; the number rises to 62 percent in northwest exurban counties, while only 23 percent of South Jersey/Philadelphia area residents say they were affected by Sandy. Fifty-four percent of urban and 46 percent of suburban residents felt Sandy’s impact.

Almost three-quarters of New Jerseyans say the state is not back to normal, and women are 13 points more likely than men to feel this way (80 percent versus 67 percent). At least 80 percent of older residents feel the same.

Similarly, residents of the storm-battered exurban and shore areas, as well as women statewide are most likely to see Sandy as a transformative event (80 percent, 84 percent, and 82 percent respectively). Feelings about Sandy and its aftermath are not conditioned by personal experience.

Those personally affected by Sandy have the highest regard for FEMA: 28 percent say FEMA has done very well compared to 22 percent of those not personally impacted by the storm. But being directly affected by the superstorm does not influence beliefs about the performance of local government or the Red Cross. While one in eight residents used a disaster-assistance agency’s services, there is little reported difference in frequency of use by region.

Still, one-third of those affected reported property damage to their insurance companies, with residents of exurban and shore counties most likely to do so (39 and 41 percent, respectively). Most (72 percent) who contacted insurance companies have have received compensation for damages.

Residents in no rush to rebuild shore but want government to pay

More than six in 10 residents (62 percent) are cautious about rebuilding at the shore and believe assessments of the potential for future damage should be made before rebuilding, compared to the third who want to rebuild before the summer tourism season. Those personally affected by the storm are slightly less likely to want immediate action; 32 percent want to rebuild immediately while 37 percent of unaffected residents agree. Residents of Ocean, Monmouth, and Atlantic counties are more anxious than most to get started, with 39 percent supporting immediate rebuilding. Forty-two percent of those in south Jersey, including Cape May County, feel the same. New Jerseyans distant from the shore favor assessment first.

As for who foots the bill, 17 percent say that individuals should pay for their own property damage — but most expect government to pay, either alone (38 percent) or in combination with property owners (40 percent.)

Partisanship plays a major role in determining financial liability. Republicans and independents are twice as likely as Democrats to say property owners are responsible for the cost. Half of Democrats believe government alone should pay, versus 35 percent of independents and 26 percent of Republicans. Forty-seven percent of Republicans favor sharing costs between owners and government compared to 38 percent of independents and Democrats.

Of those who say only government should pay, almost half (48 percent) think it is the responsibility of the federal government, while 22 percent say the state should pay. One in five (21 percent) say payment should come from a combination of governmental levels and 9 percent say local government should bear the cost.

Christie Re-election Prospects Remain Bright; Coattails Not So Much Yet

Last Friday we released our latest numbers on NJ Gov. Chris Christie’s favorability and job performance ratings. The short version: he remains wildly popular on the basis of his handling of Superstorm Sandy. Interestingly, on the top two issues for voters, the economy and high taxes, reviews are much more mixed, with more voters disapproving of his performance than approving it. But so far it doesn’t seem to matter even though voters say these issues are the most important ones for New Jersey to address.

Today we follow that up with the re-election results. And not surprisingly, we find what everyone else does too.  If the election were today Christie would handily win over his likely opponent NJ state Sen. Barbara Buono. If anything, Christie’s re-election numbers have grown since our last poll in mid-November. Buono suffers greatly from a lack of name recognition at this point, though over the last two months more voters have gotten to know her and her favorability numbers have improved.

But so far we see no evidence that Christie’s numbers are helping Republicans win back the state legislature. To be fair, we can only test this generically, by asking voters if the election for the legislature were today, would they vote for Democrats or Republicans to represent them. But using this generic ballot test, Democrats hold a 15-point lead, as large or larger than the leads they held in the same question ahead of the 2011, when they easily retained control.

Full text of the release follows. Click here for a PDF of the release text with questions and tables.

CHRISTIE COMMANDS LARGE RE-ELECTION LEAD
BUT COATTAILS MAY BE LIMITED, RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL FINDS

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – Despite concerns of many voters over the economy and taxes, support for Gov. Chris Christie’s re-election continues to grow. According to the latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, 64 percent of New Jersey registered voters now say Christie should be re-elected, up five points from November 2012.  Just over a quarter say it is time for someone new.

In a matchup against New Jersey state Senator Barbara Buono, the only declared Democratic candidate, Christie overwhelms Buono, 63 percent to 21 percent. He even scores a decisive win among voters most concerned about the economy and taxes, despite the disapproval of his handling of these issues reported by the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll last week.

“We continue to see strong support for the governor’s re-election post-Sandy,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. “Christie is riding high on 86 percent approval of his handling of the storm. Consideration of his performance on the economy and taxes is so far on the back-burner that few voters are taking them into account in their voting decision.”

Buono, on the other hand, faces an uphill battle on name recognition. Two-thirds of voters have no opinion of the challenger or admit they do not know who she is. Only 20 percent have a favorable impression of the likely Democratic nominee, while 13 percent have an unfavorable impression. Even so, this is a significant improvement since November, when 82 percent could not give an opinion on Buono and just 11 percent had a favorable impression of her.

“To her benefit, the 15-point improvement in name recognition has mostly come on the positive side,” noted Redlawsk. “But Buono has a long way to go before voters know her well enough to give her serious consideration.”

Christie’s re-election support does not yet translate into good news for legislative Republicans in the aggregate. At this early stage, 25 percent of voters say they plan to vote for Republicans for the Legislature in 2013, while 40 percent say they will vote for Democrats. Not surprisingly, another quarter has no preference this early in the election season.

Results are from a poll of 796 adults conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from Jan. 30 – Feb. 3. Within this sample is a subsample of 698 registered voters reported on here; this subsample has a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.

Christie on winning streak with most voters, including Democrats

As the 2013 election cycle begins, 15 percent of voters say they are following the gubernatorial election “very closely,” while another 33 percent are following it “somewhat closely.” But Christie’s lead is just as strong among those paying careful attention as those who admit they are paying little attention so far.

A plurality of Democrats, 47 percent, says Christie should be re-elected, while 40 percent say it is time for someone new. But 68 percent of independents and 87 percent of Republicans say the governor should be re-elected.

After closing in November, a small gender gap has reopened, with women eight points less likely than men to say Christie deserves another term, but that still leaves 60 percent of women on his side. Christie receives particularly strong support from the Sandy-battered exurban and shore regions (75 percent and 72 percent, respectively).

When matched against Buono, Christie still leads among Democrats, 42 percent to 38 percent. He also leads the head-to-head competition with 67 percent of independents and 93 percent of Republicans. With Buono on the ballot, the gender gap becomes slightly more pronounced, with women 10 points less likely than men to vote for Christie. At the same time, women are only one point more likely to vote for Buono, instead becoming more uncertain. As a result, Christie leads among men, 68 percent to 20 percent, and among women, 58 percent to 21 percent.

Even 35 percent of those who voted for former Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine in 2009 say they will vote for Christie over Buono, while Buono only holds 42 percent of Corzine voters.

Buono still mostly unknown

Beyond Christie’s post-Sandy surge, Buono is significantly disadvantaged because she remains largely unknown statewide. Even 61 percent of Democratic voters have no impression of her. But 32 percent of Democrats are favorable while only seven percent have an unfavorable impression. On the bright side for Buono, the percentage of Democrats favorable toward her has more than doubled since November, up 18 points.

Among independents, 74 percent have no opinion of Buono, 12 percent view her favorably, and 14 percent are unfavorable. Buono remains unknown to 62 percent of Republicans, with another 14 percent favorable and 24 percent unfavorable. Buono is also mostly unknown among such typical Democratic supporters as women (69 percent), black voters (72 percent) and voters belonging to public union households (69 percent).

Buono’s Democratic base is somewhat split about her candidacy: 17 percent are very satisfied and 32 percent are somewhat so. Another 22 percent of Democrats are either somewhat or very unsatisfied while 29 percent are unsure.

“We would expect that as the campaign progresses Buono will become better known and Democrats, at least, will probably gravitate toward her,” said Redlawsk. “Republicans, of course, will stick with their guy, so the real question is whether Buono will peel away enough independents to pull off what looks right now like an improbable outcome.”

Christie’s coattails

Despite Christie’s soaring popularity and poll numbers, GOP state legislators do not fare as well with voters; one-quarter of voters remain undecided and a generic question about party preferences for the Legislature puts Democrats up 15 points statewide.

Among voters who favor the governor’s re-election, 34 percent plan to vote Republican, 28 percent will support Democrats and 29 percent remain unsure.  Among those wanting Christie out, two-thirds will vote for Democrats in the Legislature, while only 11 percent will support Republicans. Sixteen percent are unsure.

Partisans are largely settled on their preferences: 76 percent of Democrats and 77 percent of Republicans will vote for legislative candidates of their own parties. Independents, however, remain uncertain, with 26 percent preferring Democrats, 18 percent favoring Republicans and 41 percent undecided. Statewide, Republicans get a plurality of voters only among those in the top income bracket (36 percent) and those living in the exurban and shore regions (39 percent and 31 percent, respectively).

“It’s very early but the numbers we see across the state are at least as good for Democrats as we found throughout 2011, when generic ballot tests showed them up between 10 and 15 points,” said Redlawsk. “That year, Democrats held on to their majorities even as the governor campaigned for a Republican Legislature. While Christie’s coattails could help some Republican candidates, the odds currently favor Democrats retaining legislative control.”

A new take on Gov. Christie’s ratings

Today we release our latest polling on our governor, Chris Christie. As has been the case for other statewide polls since Superstorm Sandy, Gov. Christie has sky-high ratings. For us, that means his favorability rating is at an all time high, as is his job performance rating. Among all statewide polls, Christie’s ratings are the highest ever for any elected governor; only former Gov. and State Sen. Richard Codey has rated as highly during his unelected term.

But we thought it would be useful to dig a little deeper, to look at how voters view the governor’s performance on a range of issues. So we asked approval of how Christie is doing on Sandy, the economy and jobs, taxes, education, crime and drugs, and the state budget. Except for the last of these, the list was also part of our “most important problem” question.

What we find is that Gov, Christie’s ratings on specific issues are generally lower than his overall rating, except for his handling of Sandy. In fact,  more voters disapprove of his performance on the economy and on taxes than approve. The apparent take away is that Gov. Christie’s exemplary handling of Sandy and its aftermath is what has driven his overall ratings into record territory, but positive ratings on Sandy do not trickle down to other issues. And, as it turns out, far more people say the economy and taxes are the most important problem facing the state than see Sandy in that light.

Text of the release is below. Click here for a PDF of the release with all questions and tables.

RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL: GOV. CHRISTIE RATINGS REMAIN SKY-HIGH, BUT APPROVAL ON HANDLING ECONOMY AND TAXES LOWER

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – Gov. Chris Christie continues to ride high from his handling of Superstorm Sandy, but a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll finds registered voters are less pleased with his performance on their No. 1 issue: jobs and the economy. While 73 percent of voters approve of Christie’s overall job performance, only 45 percent specifically approve his handling of the economy, which 35 percent of voters say is the most important problem facing New Jersey.

High taxes ranks second to jobs: 31 percent of voters call this the most important problem. Christie’s approval rating on taxes is even lower, at 40 percent. In contrast, 86 percent of voters approve of how the governor has handled Superstorm Sandy, but only 11 percent say the storm’s aftermath is the most important problem, making it a distant third on the list of problems.

“Governor Christie remains very popular across the board, with a 70 percent favorability rating and continuing sky-high overall job approval,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers. “It appears that Christie’s handling of Sandy has made the difference, since voters are not nearly as positive about other key issues. If voters begin to focus on these issues instead of the Sandy recovery, we could see a change in the governor’s overall ratings over the next few months.”

Results are from a poll of 796 New Jersey adults conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from Jan. 30 – Feb. 3. Within this sample is a subsample of 698 registered voters reported on here; this subsample has a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.

Overall approval of Christie remains at record highs

Among registered voters, Christie continues to get record high marks for an elected governor, with favorability at 70 percent, up three points since a November Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Only 20 percent say they feel unfavorable toward the governor, a drop of five points.

Democrats, in particular, have become more positive toward Christie with a jump of 10 points to 59 percent favorable. Independents and Republicans have remained relatively steady at 71 percent and 88 percent favorable, respectively.

After nearly closing in November, a gender gap in favorability has reopened, but only because men have become five points more favorable, to 74 percent, while women remain steady at 66 percent favorable.

“Favorability measures how people feel about Christie as a person, and is not specifically about job performance,” noted Redlawsk. “The governor continues to generate very good feelings among voters of all stripes.”

As for Christie’s job performance, 73 percent of voters say they approve overall, with only 23 percent disapproving. Even 62 percent of Democrats approve of how Christie is doing his job, as do three-quarters of independents and 90 percent of Republicans.

When respondents assign letter grades to his work, 24 percent award an A, while another 40 percent give a B. In November, 28 percent awarded A and 33 percent a B.

Both Democrats and independents have become more positive about Christie’s job performance. Christie’s standing improved five points with each, so 52 percent of Democrats and 66 of independents now give the governor an A or B. Republicans have become less pleased, however. Eighty percent – an 8 percent decrease since November – award an A or B. Christie continues to get his best grades from storm-battered exurban and shore regions (71 percent and 73 percent, give an A or B, respectively).

Opinions on the direction of the state have remained steady, with 60 percent of voters saying New Jersey is headed in the right direction and 33 percent saying it is on the wrong track.

Potential risk ahead for Christie

As the 2013 gubernatorial race gets under way, polling puts Christie well ahead of any Democratic opponent. But an analysis of his job performance suggests the possibility of a more competitive race over time. While voters feel very positive and give the governor high job marks, approval of Christie’s performance on some key issues is a different matter.

Among registered voters, 35 percent say the economy and jobs is the most important problem facing the state, while 31 percent say it is high taxes. These issues are followed by Hurricane Sandy recovery at 11 percent, education and schools at 10 percent, and crime and drugs at 8 percent.

Voters are split on Christie’s performance on the economy and jobs (45 percent approve, 46 percent disapprove). Just over half of those who name the economy and jobs as the top problem disapprove of the way the governor is handling it, while 43 percent approve.

Forty percent of independents and 37 percent of Democrats approve of Christie’s performance on the economy and jobs, compared to 69 percent of Republicans. More men than women (50 percent to 41 percent) approve of Christie’s economic performance, while his highest marks come from the exurban (47 percent) and suburban (54 percent) regions of the state.

Respondents’ views on taxes show a similar pattern. Overall, 40 percent approve of the job Christie is doing here, while 52 percent disapprove. Only one-third of those who call high taxes the most important problem approve of how Christie is handling the issue while 63 percent disapprove.

Majorities of Democrats (59 percent) and independents (58 percent) disapprove of the governor’s tax efforts, but 65 percent of Republicans approve. Fifty-seven percent of women disapprove of Christie’s handling of taxes. Men are evenly split at 47 percent pro and con.

“Two-thirds of voters say the economy or high taxes are the most important problems facing the state. And for the most part voters are not fans of Christie’s job performance in these areas. This suggests there is real risk for Christie if the effects of Sandy wear off over time,” said Redlawsk. “Campaigns tend to focus voters on the issues they care about most. Whether that happens over the next few months will be something to watch very carefully.”

Christie’s political strength lies both in his personal favorability rating and in nearly universal approval of how he has handled Superstorm Sandy. He gets high marks across the board for his job with Sandy recovery, including approval from many of his typical opponents: those unfavorable toward him (77 percent), Democrats (85 percent), women (86 percent), black voters (84 percent), Hispanic voters (80 percent) and public union households (87 percent).

The governor’s performance on education is another area of strength; 54 percent of New Jerseyans are positive, 39 percent are negative. Voters also are positive about Christie on crime: 51 percent approve and 30 percent disapprove of his performance on this issue.

Finally, the governor gets more positive than negative marks on the state budget, with 49 percent approving and 38 percent disapproving his performance. But in the end, voters see these issues as less critical than high taxes, a perpetual complaint of New Jerseyans, and the economy, which seems to be only slowly picking up steam.

Rutgers-Eagleton Poll Top results of 2012

OK, so it’s nearly the end of January, and everyone else has already done their greatest hits of 2012. Even so, we thought we’d take a quick look back at some of the more interesting findings. Aaron Hyndman, the undergraduate student who has been leading our social networking team, and Ashley Koning, graduate student and Rutgers-Eagleton Poll Manager, put together this retrospective.

So here is a look back at the top five Rutgers-Eagleton Poll moments of 2012 at ECPIP:

5) Wider support for same-sex marriage and immigration a reflection of greater social change.

As the New Jersey legislature once again addressed same-sex marriage in early 2012, with a subsequent controversy ensuing, more than half of New Jersey voters (54 percent) were in favor of legalizing same-sex marriage in the state.  But they wanted to vote on it. And around the time of President Obama’s executive order regarding the DREAM Act, June 2012 findings show mass bipartisan appeal for the measure providing opportunities for children of undocumented immigrants.  Eighty percent of New Jersey residents voiced support, mirroring national trends.

Press Releases: February 13, 2012, February 14, 2012, June 18, 2012

4) “Predicting” the 2012 Election.
From President Obama’s strong win in New Jersey by the same 17-point margin as shown in a late September Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, to the higher education bond passing with nearly the exact same percentage as our results showed more than a month prior, our late September polling was surprisingly accurate, reinforcing the idea that most NJ voters had made up their minds long before election day.  And in partnership with WNYC and The Brian Lehrer Show, we went even further into major issues by investigating New Jersey opinions on the Affordable Care Act, Medicare, and Medicaid (http://www.wnyc.org/shows/bl/2012/oct/10/wnycrutgers-eagleton-poll-results/).

Press Releases: October 3, 2012, October 5, 2012, October 10, 2012

3) A growing concern about gun violence and gun control in the wake of nationwide tragedies.
First polled in August after the Colorado, Wisconsin Sikh Temple, and Empire State Building Shootings, the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll found two-thirds of NJ voters very concerned with gun violence in America, 65 percent believing gun ownership was more important than gun owners’ rights, and nearly half agreeing that New Jersey gun laws should be made stricter.  Asked less than four months later in the wake of the unspeakable shooting tragedy at Sandy Hook Elementary School, the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll saw a dramatic shift in favor of gun control from August (up to 72 percent across all New Jerseyans and up to 57 percent specifically within gun-owning households).  More than three quarters of New Jerseyans were worried about gun violence – including six in ten gun owners – and virtually all believed it to be an important issue for the national agenda.

Press Release: September 12, 2012

2.) Jersey Strong in the face of the Superstorm – bipartisanship and the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy.
Superstorm Sandy was probably the most unprecedented, dramatic weather event in New Jersey’s history.  In the days before a national election, the Superstorm forced politics to be set aside so that leaders on both sides of the aisle could do everything in their power to provide aid to those suffering and help rebuild our region (and canceled our pre-election polling as well).  With two thirds of New Jerseyans affected by the storm, they praised this spirit of bipartisan cooperation by giving both President Obama and Governor Christie extraordinarily high marks in our November poll that chronicled Sandy’s aftermath.

Press Releases: November 20, 2012, November 21, 2012 

1.) The Untouchable Chris Christie and his soaring reelection and approval numbers heading into the 2013 race for governor.
Prior to Sandy, New Jersey voters were split on whether the governor should receive a second term or if it was time for someone new.  But Sandy changed all of that, and Governor Christie took a commanding lead in our November poll – both in general and by double-digit margins when put head-to-head against likely Democrat opponents (including Booker) for the 2013 election.  His undeniable leadership in a time of crisis and post-Sandy popularity has catapulted him to his highest favorability ratings ever as governor.  Christie now enters the 2013 race as a formidable opponent with strong job performance grades, greater support from his citizens, and a reputation that is less reminiscent of his pre-Sandy numbers and more reflective of his leadership and strong character in rebuilding the Garden State. But a lot can happen over the course of an election year, and we will be there to document it.

Press Releases: November 27, 2012, November 29, 2012

CHRISTIE GAINS AS SMART, EFFECTIVE LEADER

One of the unique things we have been doing here at the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll is looking at how New Jerseyans view a series of positive and negative traits that might be descriptive of Gov. Chris Christie. We only ask these questions about twice a year because they take a good deal of time. But they give us insight into the underpinnings of support or opposition to the governor, and so are very useful right now, as his personal and job performance ratings have skyrocketed after Superstorm Sandy.

In addition, we ask people to tell us whether two positive (Pride, Enthusiasm) and two negative (Anger, Worry) emotions come to mind when they hear about or ready about Christie.

Today we release the latest results of those questions, and in doing so we think we really pinpoint why the governor is doing so well post-Sandy. Of course, we don’t need data to have some feeling that he did well by the state – certainly that’s what voters have told us in other questions. But these questions make clear that people – even Democrats – have become very focused on Christie’s leadership traits, and see him as smart and effective. More importantly, the negative traits we ask about no longer dominate assessments as they did last March when we last asked these questions.

What’s perhaps really interesting, and kind of buried here, is that the long-standing gender gap completely goes away – Women are just as likely as men to ascribe positive traits to Christie and are actually slightly more likely to say they feel proud when hearing or reading about him.

It will be fascinating to see how long this persists as the realities of New Jersey politics reassert themselves and the impending 2013 gubernatorial election approaches.

Full text of the release is below. Click here for a PDF including text, questions, and tables.

CHRISTIE GAINS AS SMART, EFFECTIVE LEADER IN RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – Polls released over the last week show Gov. Chris Christie with one of the highest approval ratings ever recorded for a New Jersey governor. Analysis from the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll says the reason is voters are much more likely to see him as a smart, effective leader than they were before Superstorm Sandy.

Christie’s leadership and bipartisan embrace of President Obama after Sandy earned strong approval from residents, leading nearly two-thirds to say “smart” and “strong leader” are the two traits that best describe the governor. More than half also call him “effective” and “independent.” These positive traits are up sharply from a March 2012 Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, the last time they were asked.

In contrast, negative traits are now much less likely to be applied to Christie. Only 32 percent now say “bully” describes the governor “very well,” down nine points, while 40 percent now say it does not describe him at all, an improvement of 13 points. While voters are still more likely to apply the traits “stubborn” and “arrogant” to the governor, their use has also declined: stubborn by eight points to 54 percent and arrogant by 13 points to 43 percent.

More than half of poll respondents say Christie makes them proud, a gain of 16 points since March.Almost half – 47 percent – say they are enthusiastic about him, up 11 points. Concurrently, negative feelings are down sharply: 33 percent say the governor makes them worried (down 17 points) and only 29 percent say he makes them angry (down 13 points).

“We saw Governor Christie’s ratings spike post-Sandy and these results tell us why,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University.

“People liked the way Christie led during the storm and that performance has rubbed off on all aspects of how voters see the governor. Leadership is paramount, but so is the drop in the use of negative labels. Many seem to see the governor in a new light.”

Among the 67 percent of voters who now have a favorable impression of Christie, 23 percent say they are positive because of his honesty, integrity or frankness. Another 18 percent specifically cite Christie’s leadership during Sandy as the reason for their favorability toward him. Other top reasons for favorable impressions include Christie’s governing style and policy decisions (11 percent) and his results in getting things done and improving New Jersey (11 percent).

One-third of voters continue to have an unfavorable impression of Christie, with the leading reasons given as his dealings with education reform and teachers (24 percent), followed by their belief that Christie has a confrontational or bully-like persona (17 percent). Another 10 percent say Christie’s overall character and personality turns them off.

Results are from a poll of 1,228 New Jersey adults conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from Nov 14-17. Within this sample is a subsample of 1,108 registered voters; this subsample has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

Christie gets highest ever marks for positive traits

Since the poll started asking about his personality traits in August 2010, Christie has received his most positive reviews in the still-evolving short, post-Sandy era, surpassing his previous personal bests of April 2011, when more than half said “smart,” “strong leader,” and “independent” applied very well.

Reflecting nearly unanimous praise for his handling of Sandy, leadership is now the predominant trait applied to Christie, with 65 percent saying it applies very well, a 15-point bump since last March. Sixty-three percent of respondents now call the governor smart, a 13-point improvement. He also gets higher marks for other traits, including effective (53 percent, up 20 points), independent (55 percent, up five points), trustworthy (45 percent, up 14 points), fair (42 percent, up 16 points) and reformer (36 percent, up five points).

“The dramatically increased recognition of positive traits is a complete turnaround from March, when the top traits were stubborn and arrogant,” said Redlawsk. “While 54 percent still say the governor is stubborn, it’s now less likely to be applied than many positive traits, and is down eight points overall. Arrogance has dropped even further, down 13 points to 43 percent. The genesis of Christie’s improved ratings is the change in the positive versus negative traits people apply to him.”

Other negative traits – bully, self-centered, and impulsive – are all much less likely to be applied than they were in March, down between seven and 13 points.

Improved assessments close gender gap, partisan differences

Women have consistently been less supportive of Christie than have men both in terms of favorability and job performance. Similar results were previously visible in positive trait assessments, where women were less likely to assign positive traits to the governor. This gender gap now has disappeared. More than 60 percent of male and female voters think Christie is a strong leader and smart, and more than half think he is effective. Women now are less likely to call him stubborn, self-centered and impulsive.

“Women voters are more likely to be Democrats and have typically been far less enamored of Christie,” said Redlawsk. “But the governor’s Sandy leadership seems to have had a disproportionate effect on women, perhaps because he came across as empathetic and caring, traits not often seen in his public persona.”

Prior to Sandy, there were no positive traits that a majority of Democrats said applied very well to Christie. But a majority did think most negative traits fir him very well. Now, a majority of Democrats (52 percent) says “strong leader” applies very well, and 51 percent say the same about “smart.” Democrats still think Christie is stubborn (63 percent) and arrogant (56 percent), but both are down sharply, by 13 and 17 points respectively.

More pride, less anger toward Christie

Since Sandy, more voters say they are proud of Christie and are less likely to become angry when thinking or reading about him. In March, 35 percent of voters felt proud when they thought about Christie, and 36 percent were enthusiastic. But 42 percent said they were angry and 46 percent worried.

Today the numbers have reversed, with 51 percent expressing pride and 47 percent enthusiasm, while only 29 percent are angry and 33 percent are worried. “At its core, politics has an emotional component,” noted Redlawsk. “When negative emotions are at the forefront, political leaders are at real risk of being rejected. But when emotions run as positive as they are today, they create a framework of support that lifts all other ratings.”

While only a third of Democrats say they feel proud when they hear or read about the governor, this number has doubled since March. Independent voters’ pride has increased by 21 points to 52 percent, while 82 percent of Republicans say they feel the same, up six points. Women are now more likely than men to say they are proud of the governor – 53 percent compared to 49 percent.  This is a double-digit increase for both men and women and a reversal in the direction of the gender gap.

Fewer than half of Democrats now say Christie makes them angry (43 percent), an almost 20-point drop since March. Independents display a 14-point decline in their feelings of anger to 23 percent, while about 10 percent of Republicans say the same, virtually no change since March.

Christie’s Leadership and straightforwardness

After describing their impressions of Christie, voters were asked to explain their feelings.

Among the 67 percent of all voters who are favorable toward Christie, his leadership through Superstorm Sandy and his honest and frank style of communication get the largest number of mentions. In particular, those who feel favorable toward Christie cite how he “speaks his mind,” is “a man of his word,” “says it like it is” and “does what he says.”

Democrats who feel favorable toward the governor are most likely to mention his take-charge approach with Sandy (29 percent). Twenty percent of independents also talk about Christie’s leadership specifically in terms of Sandy, but only 5 percent of favorable Republicans mention the storm as their primary reason for liking him. Both independents and Republicans are more likely to mention Christie’s straightforwardness and candidness – 26 percent and 28 percent, respectively. Fifteen percent of favorable Democrats mention these qualities.

In contrast, for the one-third of all voters with an unfavorable impression of the governor, references to Christie’s stance on education and teachers, and their perception of him as confrontational or a bully take the top spots. About a quarter of displeased Democrats and independents bring up education as the reason for their dislike. Sixteen percent of Democrats and 18 percent of independents also said something about the governor being mean or bully-like.

“Taken together, the results of our questions on traits, emotions and reasons for impression of the governor suggest that Superstorm Sandy allowed Christie to present a side that changed many impressions of him at very core levels,” said Redlawsk. “Obviously, things can change again and likely will somewhat, but even many voters who were unremittingly negative about Christie before the storm have warm feelings and ascribe positive traits to him because of their experience with how he led the state during the crisis.”

CHRISTIE RE-ELECTION SUPPORT SOARS IN SANDY AFTERMATH

Media reports tell us that Gov. Chris Christie has filed his re-election paperwork. Good timing on his part, since  today we release more post-Sandy numbers on the Governor. In particular we test his job approval and his generic re-elect score.  We also test him head-to-head against a number (though not all) of the Democrats who have been rumored to be thinking about running against him next year.

Not surprisingly given his skyrocketing favorability ratings and the response of New Jerseyans to his handling of Superstorm Sandy, Christie is in really good shape even against Newark Mayor Cory Booker.

The full text of the release is below. Click here for a PDF of the release with questions and tables.

CHRISTIE RE-ELECTION SUPPORT SOARS IN SANDY AFTERMATH, RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL FINDS

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – In the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy, 59 percent of New Jersey registered voters support a second term for Gov. Chris Christie, while only 32 percent oppose his re-election, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Support for Christie’s re-election has risen dramatically from late September, when 44 percent favored re-election and 47 percent opposed it.

In a series of head-to-head tests against several Democrats thought to be potential 2013 gubernatorial candidates, Christie wins a clear majority in every contest. Newark Mayor Cory Booker does best in this group, but still loses 53 percent to 34 percent, with 13 percent choosing neither candidate.

Christie’s margin widens against others, including State Sen.and former  Gov. Richard Codey (56 percent to 31 percent), State Sen. Barbara Buono (60 percent to 22 percent), Assemblyman Lou Greenwald (60 percent to 21 percent) and former Democratic state chair Tom Byrne (58 percent to 22 percent). Moreover, few voters know the Democratic candidates well enough to have formed impressions of them, with the exception of Booker.

Driving Christie’s strong re-election support is the dramatic increase in the number of voters with a favorable impression of him, now at 67 percent, up 19 points from before the storm. And 61 percent now give Christie an A or B grade for his job performance, up 14 points from late September.

“Before Superstorm Sandy, things looked much different for Christie, as Democrats seemed positioned for a serious challenge next year,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers. “Voters were evenly split over the governor’s re-election, and Mayor Booker in particular looked like a very strong competitor. Post-Sandy, however, the political environment has changed, at least for now.”

Results are from a poll of 1,228 New Jersey adults conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from Nov 14-17. Within this sample is a subsample of 1,108 registered voters; this subsample has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Questions about Christie’s job approval are reported two different ways using half samples. The margin of error for these questions is +/- 4.2 percentage points.

Christie makes large gains in generic re-election support

The key to the governor’s improved generic re-election prospects comes from double-digit gains among both independent voters and Democrats. The 38 percent of Democrats who now support a second term for Christie reflect a doubling of his pre-Sandy support from them. Independents are decisively in Christie’s camp, with 66 percent supporting re-election, up from 44 percent in late September.

“Current levels of support for Christie’s re-election are stunning, given how divided voters were before the storm,” said Redlawsk. “The combination of leadership, empathy and bipartisanship shown by the governor during the crisis impressed most people and gave the governor a strong push into the 2013 campaign.”

The governor’s leadership during and after Sandy appears also to have erased the persistent gender gap in his support for now. Men and women support a second term in nearly equal numbers, with 60 percent of men and 58 percent of women calling for his re-election. This represents a more than 20-point increase for Christie among women.

Among voters in the hardest hit areas – shore and exurban counties – 70 percent or more now support his re-election. Even voters in public-employee union households have come around for the time being, with 45 percent now favoring re-election, double the percentage in the last Rutgers-Eagleton Poll.

Racial differences continue to persist, however. While 65 percent of white voters support re-election, a nearly equal share of black voters (62 percent) continues to oppose the governor. But this is a significant improvement over the last poll, when 81 percent of blacks thought Christie should go. Among Hispanic voters, 51 percent support re-election, while 46 percent oppose a new term.

Potential Democratic challengers appear to face uphill battle

While the 2013 gubernatorial election is more than 11 months away, ballot tests comparing Christie to some potential Democratic challengers suggest that he starts the election year in an enviable position. Christie beats the strongest Democrat, Booker, by a 19-point margin. Other Democrats run from 25 points (Codey) to 39 points (Greenwald) behind.

Christie’s 67 percent favorable rating also outshines that of any of the Democrats. Booker is the only one to break 50 percent favorable, while 11 percent view him unfavorably; 27 percent have no opinion and 10 percent “don’t know”. Codey comes in at 34 percent favorable versus 14 percent unfavorable, with 38 percent having no opinion, and 15 percent unable to identify him.

The large majority of New Jersey voters has no opinion on the other Democrats or does not recognize the names: 75 percent in the case of Byrne (15 percent favorable to 11 percent unfavorable), 82 percent for Buono (11 percent favorable to 7 percent unfavorable) and 84 percent in Greenwald’s case (9 percent favorable to 7 percent unfavorable.)

“Christie’s position against the Democrats is strong, not just because of his Superstorm Sandy response, but also because most Democrats do not have the statewide name recognition needed to challenge him. While
Booker comes closest, still more than one-third cannot characterize their impression of him.”

When pitted against Booker, Christie loses a little steam on the generic “should he be re-elected” question. While 66 percent of independents say the governor deserves re-election in general, support for Christie drops to 59 percent when given the choice between Christie and Booker. Women respond similarly, dropping seven points to 51 percent when choosing between the governor and Newark mayor. Booker wins among Hispanic voters (46 percent to 42 percent ) and black voters, 58 percent to 23 percent. But Christie wins resoundingly among white voters, 60 percent to 28 percent.

“With a long time until Election Day, Sandy will become somewhat less of a factor,” noted Redlawsk. “The realities of governing – including the budget and a host of other contentious issues – are likely to cool the governor’s red-hot numbers over time. But Christie’s leadership has given him a great deal of political capital to use over the next year.”

Voters give high grades and approval to Christie job performance

The Rutgers-Eagleton Poll used three measures to assess how voters respond to Gov. Christie. All voters were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of the governor. In addition, a random half was asked to assign a grade to Christie’s job performance, while the other half simply said whether they approved or disapproved of his job performance.

As with favorability, Christie’s job performance grades also reflect record highs for his term. Sixty-one percent now award him an A or B, a double-digit increase from the last poll. At the top end, 28 percent now say the governor has earned an A, up from 18 percent. In the late September poll, 30 percent assigned a D or F grade to the governor. Post-Sandy, only 16 percent continues to do so.

Nearly half of Democrats now assign the governor an A or B, while 61 percent of independents also give the same high marks. And 49 percent of Republicans give Christie the highest possible grade. More women than men give Christie an A (32 percent versus 25 percent). Christie gets the most As and Bs from the exurban and shore regions (68 percent and 72 percent, respectively), presumably due both to his efforts in these storm-battered areas and to the more Republican tendencies of these counties.

Among voters asked whether they approve or disapprove of the job Christie is doing, 67 percent approve and 26 percent disapprove. Among these voters, Christie receives bipartisan praise with almost half of Democrats (49 percent), three-quarters of independents, and most Republicans (88 percent) approving his performance. Christie even sees high job approval from black voters (53 percent), young voters (57 percent) and public-employee union voters (54 percent).

As Christie ’s overall favorability ratings have skyrocketed post-Sandy, the percentage of Democrats with a favorable impression of the governor has doubled to 49 percent. Independents display a 24-point increase to 73 percent favorable, while 90 percent of Republicans are favorable. Large increases in favorability are also seen among both men and women: men are up 17 points to 69 percent, and women are up 22 points to 65 percent.

Favorability among white voters improved by 17 points to 72 percent, and favorability among black voters more than doubled to 46 percent. More than three-quarters of voters in those areas hardest hit by the storm, and over half of public union employees (56 percent), also say they are favorable toward Christie.

Chris Christie job performance up, re-elect down slightly

Continuing on our latest series of releases, we update our Gov. Christie numbers since our August poll. It was only a month between polls, so probably shouldn’t have expected much to change. Granted, there was the Republican National Convention and the governor’s Keynote speech. The speech itself got great reviews from Republicans, and we think we see this reflected in more positive Republican numbers, and more negative Democratic ones. But independents don’t show much movement one way or the other.

And from time to time we see numbers that don’t have a ready explanation in our data or any obvious external events. We see one of those there – the share of women giving Christie a job performance grade of “A” grew 8 points, from 10 to 18 percent, matching the number of men who award the top grade. Interestingly, at the same time, women are also more likely to give the governor a “D” than they were in August. But it is not obvious why we should see such movement among women now, after relative stability for quite a while. And this is doubly true since women have not improved their overall impression of the governor.

Full text of the release is below. For a PDF of the text, with questions and tables, click here.

CHRISTIE JOB GRADE IMPROVES SLIGHTLY, RE-ELECTION SUPPORT DOES NOT
Nearly half of voters think state is heading in right direction

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. – Almost half of New Jersey’s registered voters – 47 percent –grade Gov. Chris Christie’s job performance as A or B, but the same percentage says they would not vote to re-elect the governor, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Eighteen percent of voters rate Christie’s job performance A, and 29 percent a B, but 30 percent award him a poor or failing grade. Grades are slightly more positive than an August Rutgers-Eagleton Poll; more voters now award an A grade (up three points), and fewer award C (down three points).

Voters remain split over a second term for Christie. While 44 percent would re-elect the governor, 47 percent say it is time for someone new. Last month, 47 percent wanted another term while 46 percent were looking for change.

Christie’s favorability has remained relatively stable since the last poll: 48 percent of voters have a favorable impression of Christie, down a point from August, while 42 percent are unfavorable toward the governor, up two points. Nearly half (49 percent) of voters say New Jersey is going in the right direction while 41 percent say it is on the wrong track.

“New Jersey voters remain evenly split over the governor, as they have been consistently since he’s been in office,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. “While we see small moves up and down, opinions on Christie remain pretty settled, even though there is some improvement in job performance grades.”

Results are from a poll of 790 registered voters conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from Sep 27-30. The sample has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Christie’s favorability remains steady, job performance marks improve

Christie’s stable favorability ratings between polls belie some movement among both Republicans and Democrats. While independent voters remain 49 percent favorable, the governor’s favorability among Republicans improved by four points to 88 percent. With Democrats, on the other hand, Christie’s favorability dropped three points to 22 percent. Women remain less positive than men, 43 percent to 52 percent.

An increase in the number of women who give Christie an A has driven Christie’s higher job performance grades since August. As many women as men (18 percent) now give the governor the top grade, up 8 points for women. Although more women than men fail him (17 percent compared to 12 percent of men), this still represents a two-point improvement among women from the last poll.

Independents remain very positive about Christie’s job performance: 47 percent award him A or B, and 14 percent fail him. Democrats are more negative, but 25 percent now grade him A or B, a five-point improvement from August. Nearly a quarter fail him. Not surprisingly, GOP backers overwhelmingly give Christie stellar grades; 83 percent say Christie is doing A or B work (up nine points), while only 2 percent say he should fail (down two points).

“This poll marks the highest percentage of A’s and B’s we’ve seen since we introduced the Christie job report card in February 2011,” said Redlawsk. “Republicans are more positive, and Democrats more negative, as we might expect from Christie’s convention speech. Favorability among women did not change, but job performance ratings became more polarized. Yes, many more women give A grades this month, but we also see an increase in D’s.”

Looking ahead to 2013

Christie’s improved job performance grades are contrasted, however, with a small slip in re-election prospects. The decline is due to a drop in support among Democrats and independents, outweighing gains among Republicans. Only 19 percent of Democrats would give the governor a second term versus the 71 percent who want him out of office next year. Re-election support among independents has dropped five points since August to 44 percent, while 43 percent want someone new, down two points. The number of undecided independents has doubled to 12 percent since the last poll. In contrast, support among GOP voters has increased five points to 85 percent. Twelve percent of Republicans say they want someone new.

“No incumbent wants to be below 50 percent re-election support,” said Redlawsk, “but we don’t yet know who will be the Democratic nominee, nor how brutal a primary Democratic contenders will face. Given that, Christie’s numbers look reasonably good so far.”

Men have become less positive about the governor’s re-election. Forty-eight percent favor re-election, a six-point decline since the summer. Forty-three percent want someone new (up from 39 percent), and 10 percent are unsure (up from 8 percent). Women, on the other hand, have remained steady – 41 percent want the governor re-elected, 50 percent do not, and 9 percent are uncertain.

Christie’s re-election continues to be mostly opposed by voters under 30 (59 percent want someone new, up seven points) and black voters (81 percent, up nine points). He no longer wins among those earning between $100,000 and $150,000 (43 percent say re-elect, 51 percent say someone new) and continues to lose among those in the two lowest income brackets. The governor still has re-election support among white voters, but is down two points to 52 percent. Senior citizens remain on his side, with 53 percent favoring a second term.

New Jersey continues in a positive direction

The share of voters who say New Jersey is going in the right direction (49 percent) may be rebounding from a dip in August; 41 percent continue to believe, however, that the state is on the wrong track. Independents’ positive feeling about the state’s direction increased two points to 49 percent. Their pessimism correspondingly decreased to 39 percent. Republicans are more positive than Democrats by an 81 percent to 31 percent margin.

More than half (55 percent) of voters who think the state is going in the right direction feel this way because they believe things are changing for the better, and 40 percent believe things are not getting worse. Those who say New Jersey is on the wrong track mostly do so because they believe things are just not getting better (62 percent), compared to a little over a third of voters who think things in the state are getting worse (35 percent).

FEW AGREE NEW JERSEY COMEBACK UNDER WAY

Well, after our little segue into tattoos (which got the most hits of anything we’ve ever done!) we’re back to the politics of New Jersey. We are continuing to release results of our Aug 23-25 Rutgers-Eagleton Poll of registered voters in New Jersey. Today we look at Gov. Christie’s claims about a New Jersey Comeback, and whether voters here believe that it is under way. Most do not. But even so, more think the state is headed in the right direction than think it is off on the wrong track, and Christie’s favorability ratings are holding up. It adds up to an evenly split electorate – probably no surprise to anyone – we ask for the first time whether Gov. Christie deserves to be re-elected. Of course, a question like that with no specific opponent, asked 15 months before the election, is hardly determinative. But it is interesting to see where things are at this early stage in the next election cycle.

Text of the release is below. Click here for a PDF with the text, questions, and tables.

FEW AGREE NEW JERSEY COMEBACK UNDER WAY
Rutgers-Eagleton Poll respondents split on second term for governor

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – Despite Gov. Chris Christie’s ongoing efforts to trumpet a “New Jersey Comeback,” few New Jersey voters believe the rhetoric. An overwhelming 63 percent say Christie is overstating things, while only 29 percent agree a comeback is under way. More than half of Republicans (56 percent) believe the comeback has begun, about twice the number of independents (29 percent). Only 12 percent of Democrats are on board with the governor.

Despite disagreement over a comeback, nearly half of registered voters (48 percent) say the state is going in the right direction, while 41 percent say it is on the wrong track.

As for Christie, voters are evenly split as to whether he deserves a second term: 47 percent are ready to re-elect Christie, 46 percent say it is time for someone new, and 8 percent are unsure. As previously reported, Christie is viewed favorably by 49 percent, and unfavorably by 40 percent of registered voters. His job performance gets an A or B from 45 percent of voters.

“Overall, the numbers are a mixed bag for Governor Christie,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. “Most voters don’t feel like a comeback has begun, although Christie is not taking any hit for proclaiming it. His favorable rating hasn’t moved since June, and more voters think the state is going in the right direction than don’t. While the number ready to re-elect him is less than a majority, it’s not particularly weak at this point.”

Results are from a poll of 916 registered voters conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from Aug 23 – 25. The poll was conducted before Gov. Christie gave the Republican National Convention keynote address and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.

Most say no to a New Jersey Comeback

While Christie touted the state’s comeback regularly over the summer, about a third of registered voters say they have heard nothing about it; 45 percent have heard a little and only 22 percent have heard a lot. The message may be resonating with those who have heard a lot: 40 percent of these voters believe it is happening, compared to 33 percent of those who have heard just a little, and a mere 17 percent of those who have not heard anything about the governor’s claim.

While a third of all voters believe that Christie’s New Jersey comeback has really begun, a majority (56 percent) of Republicans are on his side, though 35 percent say it has not yet begun. Independents are dubious: 62 percent say Christie is overstating things, while only 29 percent support him. Democrats simply dismiss Christie’s claims: 83 percent say it has not happened yet.

Women, who hold a more negative view of Christie than men, are less likely to believe in a New Jersey comeback, 26 percent to 34 percent.

“Liking the governor is no guarantee of agreeing with him on whether the comeback has begun,” said Redlawsk. “Even Republicans are more likely give Christie good grades than agree that a comeback is already under way. But they may be giving him credit for trying even if they don’t think he’s succeeded yet.”

Voters who feel their personal finances are improving (13 percent of all voters) are also most likely to say the New Jersey comeback is under way, but even here less than 40 percent take Christie’s position. Among the large majority of voters who are just “holding steady” only 29 percent think there is a comeback; 24 percent of those whose finances are “falling behind” (18 percent of all voters) agree.

“How we feel about politicians affects how we view their messages,” noted Redlawsk. “But personal experience also plays a role. Whether or not they like Christie, those whose personal finances are improving see are more likely to feel the state is coming back. But those who see little or no improvement in their own lives are much more likely to discount the Governor’s message, no matter how they feel about him otherwise.”

To re-elect or not to re-elect, that is the question

Forty-seven percent of voters want a second term for Christie and 46 percent do not. Two-of-three Democrats are itching for change and about one-in-five would give him a second term. Eleven percent are unsure. Eighty percent of GOP backers are ready to sign on again, but 14 percent are not.

Among independents, who may hold the balance in next year’s election, 49 percent favor a second term for Christie and 45 percent do not.

“Reflecting the strong feelings the governor generates, only 6 percent of independents don’t know where they stand 15 months before the election,” said Redlawsk. “Still, it is one thing to say no to a second Christie term against an unspecified opponent but it is another to have to choose an alternative. With a nearly 50 percent ‘re-elect’ in a Democratic state, Christie is not in bad shape in the early going.”

According to the poll, Christie’s weakest demographic groups include voters under 30 (35 percent would re-elect), those with household incomes under $50,000 (37 percent), women (41 percent) and black voters (19 percent.) He wins among whites, senior citizens and men (all at 54 percent re-elect), and those with household incomes between $100,000 and $150,000 (60 percent.)

Among those who see their financial wellbeing improving, 54 percent want to give Christie a second term, but only about 45 percent of other voters agree. And reflecting partisan patterns statewide, Christie wins re-election in the suburbs (52 percent), exurban (50 percent), and shore counties (57 percent). In more Democratic strongholds of urban and south Jersey, he wins only 30 percent and 38 percent, respectively.

The state’s direction

The share of voters who say New Jersey is going in the right direction (48 percent) has fallen 3 points since early June; 41 percent believe the opposite. Independents’ positive feeling about the state’s direction fell six points to 47 percent. Their pessimism is up two points to 41 percent. Republicans are more positive than Democrats by a 75 percent to 32 percent margin.

Probing more deeply, those who think the state is going in the right direction are split on whether this is because things are changing for the better (52 percent) or things are just not getting worse (45 percent). Those who say New Jersey is off on the wrong track are much more negative, with 62 percent of these voters saying things are changing for the worse and only 34 percent saying things are just not getting better.

“Voters overall still are not very positive about New Jersey’s future,” said Redlawsk. “Only about a quarter think things are actually getting better, while 14 percent say they are getting worse. Most voters remain somewhere in the middle.”

The comeback’s doubters are not overwhelmingly negative about the state’s direction: 56 percent think the state’s condition has remains unchanged, 21 percent believe it has worsened. Sixty-one percent of comeback supporters believe things are better and 30 percent see no change.

Christie’s ratings show little change

Since the June poll, Christie favorability has dropped 1 point to 49 percent with 40 percent unfavorable. Some change has occurred among independents, however, where favorable ratings have declined 7 points to 48 percent and unfavorable ratings increased 8 points to 40 percent. Most of this change was offset by increasingly positive ratings from GOP voters, up 5 points to 84 percent favorable.

Despite declining favorability, independents are still very positive about Christie’s job performance: 48 percent award an A or B and 15 percent fail him. Democrats are much more negative: only 20 percent grade him an A or B while 23 percent award him an F. The vast majority of Republicans see things differently, with 74 percent saying Christie is doing A or B work, and only 4 percent saying he should fail.

For the most part, stability defines voters’ feelings about Christie. Over the course of his administration, the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll has tracked Christie’s favorability rating between 44 and 50 percent, with unfavorable ratings ranging between 37 and 47 percent.

“This poll begins to clarify where Christie stands as we head toward the 2013 gubernatorial election,” said Redlawsk. “If it were today, I’d predict a close win for Christie, though his actual opponent will certainly matter. But enough New Jerseyans continue to like him and award good grades, even if they are not buying into the New Jersey Comeback. They may believe the comeback is not too far down the road and at least things are no longer getting worse.”