Rutgers-Eagleton Poll Top results of 2012

OK, so it’s nearly the end of January, and everyone else has already done their greatest hits of 2012. Even so, we thought we’d take a quick look back at some of the more interesting findings. Aaron Hyndman, the undergraduate student who has been leading our social networking team, and Ashley Koning, graduate student and Rutgers-Eagleton Poll Manager, put together this retrospective.

So here is a look back at the top five Rutgers-Eagleton Poll moments of 2012 at ECPIP:

5) Wider support for same-sex marriage and immigration a reflection of greater social change.

As the New Jersey legislature once again addressed same-sex marriage in early 2012, with a subsequent controversy ensuing, more than half of New Jersey voters (54 percent) were in favor of legalizing same-sex marriage in the state.  But they wanted to vote on it. And around the time of President Obama’s executive order regarding the DREAM Act, June 2012 findings show mass bipartisan appeal for the measure providing opportunities for children of undocumented immigrants.  Eighty percent of New Jersey residents voiced support, mirroring national trends.

Press Releases: February 13, 2012, February 14, 2012, June 18, 2012

4) “Predicting” the 2012 Election.
From President Obama’s strong win in New Jersey by the same 17-point margin as shown in a late September Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, to the higher education bond passing with nearly the exact same percentage as our results showed more than a month prior, our late September polling was surprisingly accurate, reinforcing the idea that most NJ voters had made up their minds long before election day.  And in partnership with WNYC and The Brian Lehrer Show, we went even further into major issues by investigating New Jersey opinions on the Affordable Care Act, Medicare, and Medicaid (http://www.wnyc.org/shows/bl/2012/oct/10/wnycrutgers-eagleton-poll-results/).

Press Releases: October 3, 2012, October 5, 2012, October 10, 2012

3) A growing concern about gun violence and gun control in the wake of nationwide tragedies.
First polled in August after the Colorado, Wisconsin Sikh Temple, and Empire State Building Shootings, the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll found two-thirds of NJ voters very concerned with gun violence in America, 65 percent believing gun ownership was more important than gun owners’ rights, and nearly half agreeing that New Jersey gun laws should be made stricter.  Asked less than four months later in the wake of the unspeakable shooting tragedy at Sandy Hook Elementary School, the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll saw a dramatic shift in favor of gun control from August (up to 72 percent across all New Jerseyans and up to 57 percent specifically within gun-owning households).  More than three quarters of New Jerseyans were worried about gun violence – including six in ten gun owners – and virtually all believed it to be an important issue for the national agenda.

Press Release: September 12, 2012

2.) Jersey Strong in the face of the Superstorm – bipartisanship and the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy.
Superstorm Sandy was probably the most unprecedented, dramatic weather event in New Jersey’s history.  In the days before a national election, the Superstorm forced politics to be set aside so that leaders on both sides of the aisle could do everything in their power to provide aid to those suffering and help rebuild our region (and canceled our pre-election polling as well).  With two thirds of New Jerseyans affected by the storm, they praised this spirit of bipartisan cooperation by giving both President Obama and Governor Christie extraordinarily high marks in our November poll that chronicled Sandy’s aftermath.

Press Releases: November 20, 2012, November 21, 2012 

1.) The Untouchable Chris Christie and his soaring reelection and approval numbers heading into the 2013 race for governor.
Prior to Sandy, New Jersey voters were split on whether the governor should receive a second term or if it was time for someone new.  But Sandy changed all of that, and Governor Christie took a commanding lead in our November poll – both in general and by double-digit margins when put head-to-head against likely Democrat opponents (including Booker) for the 2013 election.  His undeniable leadership in a time of crisis and post-Sandy popularity has catapulted him to his highest favorability ratings ever as governor.  Christie now enters the 2013 race as a formidable opponent with strong job performance grades, greater support from his citizens, and a reputation that is less reminiscent of his pre-Sandy numbers and more reflective of his leadership and strong character in rebuilding the Garden State. But a lot can happen over the course of an election year, and we will be there to document it.

Press Releases: November 27, 2012, November 29, 2012

DREAM Act gets wide support in NJ

With President Obama’s announcement last week that he would implement key parts of the DREAM act (though not all) by executive order, we have the opportunity to give some sense of how NJ feels about the provisions of the proposed bill which last got bottled up in the U.S. Senate. The DREAM act would apply to undocumented immigrants brought here as children, thus having not themselves made a choice to come to the U.S. without legal status. The act would provide an opportunity for citizenship, though Obama’s executive order does not go that far.

In our most recent poll, we had a battery on NJ attitudes toward immigration as part of a project we intend to report at the end of summer. But one of the questions specifically asked about support for the DREAM Act provisions. So given the news, we thought we’d take a look at that question.

The result – wide support in NJ when the provisions of the act are provided. About 40 percent say they strongly support it, and another 40 percent “somewhat” support the bill. This suggest pretty broad support for Obama’s move here in the Garden State, though we did not poll specifically on that since our poll was in the field May 31 – June 4, before Obama’s move.

At one point we thought maybe these numbers are out of whack – even Republicans at least somewhat support the proposal. But consider that Marco Rubio, Republican Senator from Florida was working on a proposal now preempted by Obama, and the fact that other polls have shows support nationally and in interesting states like Arizona, our results make sense. After all, this is about those brought to the U.S. through no decision of their own, and who may not even have a country to be deported to.

Full text of today’s release follows. Click here for a PDF with questions and tables.

RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL: MOST NEW JERSEYANS SUPPORT DREAM ACT

 NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – As President Barack Obama moves to implement parts of the DREAM Act by executive order, bypassing the need for congressional approval, a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll finds that 80 percent of New Jerseyans support the provisions of the proposed law. The DREAM Act would prevent young undocumented immigrants from being deported if they met certain requirements regarding age, criminal background and education or military service.

Last week, the president called his executive order, “the right thing to do for the American people.” While the poll was taken two weeks before Obama’s announcement, the findings suggest that his decision is likely to be popular in New Jersey.

“Though the president’s order does not grant permanent citizenship as the DREAM Act would, the new poll results suggest strong support for his action,” said Poll Director David Redlawsk, a professor of political science at Rutgers. “While some may suggest Obama didn’t go far enough, he is not likely to face significant voter backlash here. However, some of the more lukewarm supporters in our poll might be concerned about Obama taking unilateral action.”

After hearing the specifics of the DREAM Act, Garden Staters are evenly split at about 40 percent each between whether they “strongly” or “somewhat” support it, while 10 percent somewhat oppose the act, and 8 percent strongly oppose it.

Results are from a statewide poll of 1,191 adults using both landlines and cell phones from May 31-June 4. The sample has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Majority support cuts across demographic lines

Reflecting recent national and state polls, which find majority support for the DREAM Act, support in New Jersey cuts across typical demographic divides. While nearly 90 percent of New Jersey’s immigrants support the proposed legislation, even typical opponents of immigration show some support.

“Prior to Obama’s decision, key tenets of the program were supported by Democrats and Republicans, even though the bill did not get past Congress,” said Redlawsk. “Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio, for example, recently offered a similar plan that did not go quite as far as the original DREAM Act. So it is not surprising to see support from both sides of the aisle in New Jersey.”

While 87 percent of Democrats support the DREAM Act provisions, so do 77 percent of independents and even 70 percent of Republicans. Support also extends to a majority of each age cohort; 86 percent the youngest New Jerseyans, 82 percent of 30 to 49 year-olds and 74 percent 50 and older support the proposed law.

Hispanics and African-Americans are more likely to strongly support the DREAM Act than whites, but a large majority of each group supports the proposal: 85 percent of Hispanics express support followed by 82 percent of African-Americans, and 77 percent of white New Jerseyans.

Even those who are more unfavorable to the presence and impact of immigrants in New Jersey favor the DREAM Act’s provisions, with 70 percent at least somewhat supportive of the proposal. And among those who think immigrants hurt the state’s economy, two-thirds still express some support.

“One key point is that the DREAM Act is about those who are brought to the U.S. illegally as children, not through any choice of their own,” noted Redlawsk. “These young people are apparently looked upon much more sympathetically than those who have made their own choice to come.”

Intensity of support varies

Clear majorities of every major demographic group express at least some support for the DREAM Act, but levels of support vary. While 51 percent of Democrats offer strong support, only 34 percent of independents and 30 percent of Republicans do the same. But an additional 40 percent or more of the latter groups “somewhat” support the act.

Majorities of African-Americans and Hispanics strongly support the proposal, compared to 35 percent of whites, although another 42 percent are somewhat supportive. Fifty-nine percent of immigrants strongly support the act, 22 percent higher than U.S.-born Garden Staters.

“This differing intensity suggests that with the president making an end-run around Congress, there is room for those who oppose Obama anyway to shift their position and come out opposed,” said Redlawsk. “So while we show strong support for the DREAM act’s provisions, we cannot be sure that this translates completely into support for Obama’s move. Most likely it does among those already strongly support the law, while creating conflict about the issue for others.”

Among New Jerseyans who say there are too many immigrants in the state, 31 percent still strongly support the DREAM Act while another 39 percent somewhat support it. Meanwhile 47 percent of those who think immigration levels are “just right” give strong support and another 40 percent are somewhat supportive.

Support from those who know, don’t know immigrants

Eighty-six percent of respondents born outside the U.S. support the DREAM Act, with 59 showing strong support. Likewise, 83 percent of those with at least one immigrant parent support the proposal.

New Jerseyans’ amount of contact with immigrants only slightly affects support for the act.  Seventy-three percent who interact with immigrants less than once a month show at least some support for the act; 80 percent of respondents with daily contact show support.

Support also does not depend on the personal importance Garden Staters assign to the issue of immigration. The small number (about 6 percent) who say immigration is their most important issue are more likely to strongly support the DREAM Act than the 20 percent of respondents who say immigration is not an important issue at all. Even so large majorities show at least some support across all levels of issue importance.

Those who consider immigration their most important issue are also the only group showing more than 25 percent strong opposition to the DREAM Act, suggesting the issue is very important both to those in support of and opposed to immigration. Conservative New Jerseyans, who make up about one-fifth of the sample, are the only other group coming close to a large number strongly opposed to the proposed law, at 19 percent.