Rutgers-Eagleton Poll Top results of 2012

OK, so it’s nearly the end of January, and everyone else has already done their greatest hits of 2012. Even so, we thought we’d take a quick look back at some of the more interesting findings. Aaron Hyndman, the undergraduate student who has been leading our social networking team, and Ashley Koning, graduate student and Rutgers-Eagleton Poll Manager, put together this retrospective.

So here is a look back at the top five Rutgers-Eagleton Poll moments of 2012 at ECPIP:

5) Wider support for same-sex marriage and immigration a reflection of greater social change.

As the New Jersey legislature once again addressed same-sex marriage in early 2012, with a subsequent controversy ensuing, more than half of New Jersey voters (54 percent) were in favor of legalizing same-sex marriage in the state.  But they wanted to vote on it. And around the time of President Obama’s executive order regarding the DREAM Act, June 2012 findings show mass bipartisan appeal for the measure providing opportunities for children of undocumented immigrants.  Eighty percent of New Jersey residents voiced support, mirroring national trends.

Press Releases: February 13, 2012, February 14, 2012, June 18, 2012

4) “Predicting” the 2012 Election.
From President Obama’s strong win in New Jersey by the same 17-point margin as shown in a late September Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, to the higher education bond passing with nearly the exact same percentage as our results showed more than a month prior, our late September polling was surprisingly accurate, reinforcing the idea that most NJ voters had made up their minds long before election day.  And in partnership with WNYC and The Brian Lehrer Show, we went even further into major issues by investigating New Jersey opinions on the Affordable Care Act, Medicare, and Medicaid (http://www.wnyc.org/shows/bl/2012/oct/10/wnycrutgers-eagleton-poll-results/).

Press Releases: October 3, 2012, October 5, 2012, October 10, 2012

3) A growing concern about gun violence and gun control in the wake of nationwide tragedies.
First polled in August after the Colorado, Wisconsin Sikh Temple, and Empire State Building Shootings, the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll found two-thirds of NJ voters very concerned with gun violence in America, 65 percent believing gun ownership was more important than gun owners’ rights, and nearly half agreeing that New Jersey gun laws should be made stricter.  Asked less than four months later in the wake of the unspeakable shooting tragedy at Sandy Hook Elementary School, the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll saw a dramatic shift in favor of gun control from August (up to 72 percent across all New Jerseyans and up to 57 percent specifically within gun-owning households).  More than three quarters of New Jerseyans were worried about gun violence – including six in ten gun owners – and virtually all believed it to be an important issue for the national agenda.

Press Release: September 12, 2012

2.) Jersey Strong in the face of the Superstorm – bipartisanship and the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy.
Superstorm Sandy was probably the most unprecedented, dramatic weather event in New Jersey’s history.  In the days before a national election, the Superstorm forced politics to be set aside so that leaders on both sides of the aisle could do everything in their power to provide aid to those suffering and help rebuild our region (and canceled our pre-election polling as well).  With two thirds of New Jerseyans affected by the storm, they praised this spirit of bipartisan cooperation by giving both President Obama and Governor Christie extraordinarily high marks in our November poll that chronicled Sandy’s aftermath.

Press Releases: November 20, 2012, November 21, 2012 

1.) The Untouchable Chris Christie and his soaring reelection and approval numbers heading into the 2013 race for governor.
Prior to Sandy, New Jersey voters were split on whether the governor should receive a second term or if it was time for someone new.  But Sandy changed all of that, and Governor Christie took a commanding lead in our November poll – both in general and by double-digit margins when put head-to-head against likely Democrat opponents (including Booker) for the 2013 election.  His undeniable leadership in a time of crisis and post-Sandy popularity has catapulted him to his highest favorability ratings ever as governor.  Christie now enters the 2013 race as a formidable opponent with strong job performance grades, greater support from his citizens, and a reputation that is less reminiscent of his pre-Sandy numbers and more reflective of his leadership and strong character in rebuilding the Garden State. But a lot can happen over the course of an election year, and we will be there to document it.

Press Releases: November 27, 2012, November 29, 2012

Quick thoughts on the election

As we noted the other day, we had planned to do a pre-election poll in New Jersey but those plans were stopped by Superstorm Sandy. As it turns out, might not have made much difference. When we last polled – 5 weeks ago! – we had President Obama up by 17 points over Romney in the state. In doing so, we seemed a bit of an outlier. As it turns out, looks like the president won by, you guessed it, 17 points.

In that poll, we had the ballot question on a bond issue for higher education at 62% support. Last night it won 61%.

We were off, however, on the judge’s pay ballot issue, which won 83% of the vote – we pegged it at only 70% support.

Not that we think polling 5 weeks ahead of the election is a good indicator of what will happen on election day. But at least in the NJ presidential race, nothing happened – we were not a battleground, so we had no campaign. With no campaign, the numbers simply didn’t move.
One thing that is annoying today is the “No Change Election” meme being floated. Yes, it is true that Obama is still president, the Republicans still have the House, and the Democrats still have the Senate. BUT, on a national level, real change is evident. Instead of losing Senate seats, Democrats picked up, and may now have a 55-45 margin (including the two independents) up from 53-47 before the election. That small change is evidence of something underneath the overall numbers, and that something drove not only Obama’s re-election but also state level results like the passing of same sex marriage in three states (MD, ME, WA) when it has NEVER won a popular vote before, and the failure of a one-man-one-woman constitutional amendment in Minnesota. California actually voted to tax itself for education. Women made historic gains in the U.S. Senate. And other small, yet significant, changes appear below the national level.

These changes are driven by fundamental changes in the electorate. Young people are voting and have very different attitudes on race, gender, and social issues than do their elders. And Latino’s made up 10 percent of the electorate, with significant consequences. There is change, it is just hard to see if you only look at the big picture.

At the presidential level, our initial simple assessment is that Obama won in the end because:

The electorate in the United States is changing. More Hispanic voters that ever showed up to vote (they made up about 10% of all voters) and they overwhelmingly voted for Obama. In addition, 93 percent of African Americans voted Obama. Young voters (under 30) also strongly supported him. Whites made up only 72 percent of the electorate, continuing a steady decline in influence. Even though they went for Romney, it is no longer enough to have an overwhelmingly white electoral coalition.

Obama’s voter mobilization operation was better than Romney’s. Obama had many more campaign offices and people “on the ground” doing the hard work of getting people to go to the polls to vote. That allowed him to win a number of close states.

Voters did not like Mitt Romney as much as Obama and they did not blame Obama as much as they did former President Bush for the economic problems. They seem willing to give Obama more time to make things better.

That’s our no-pre-election-poll wrap up. We will be back in the field soon with a post-election poll and our initial look at the 2013 elections. Yep, they’ve already started…

NJ VOTERS MAY SUPPORT SAME-SEX MARRIAGE, BUT THEY WANT TO VOTE ON IT

For a PDF of the text along with the questions and tables, click here.

Yesterday we reported that a majority of NJ Voters support same-sex marriage. Today we expand on that by also noting that a majority support’s NJ Gov. Chris Christie’s call for a vote on the issue, while 40 percent support Newark Mayor Cory Booker’s position that the issue is one of civil rights and should not be submitted to a vote. One interesting twist though. NJ votes don’t care very much about the issue – it is not considered even very important by a large majority. BUT, those who support marriage equality are much more likely to call it an important issue than are those who oppose it. Interesting food for thought here – if there were a referendum, would supporters be more likely to get out than opponents? If so, that would be pretty much the opposite of what has happened elsewhere when the issue has been on the ballot.

The text of the release follows. For a PDF of the text along with the questions and tables, click here.

RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL: NEW JERSEY VOTERS SUPPORT GOV. CHRISTIE’S CALL FOR GAY MARRIAGE REFERENDUM

Majority supports gay marriage but issue not that important to most

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – Even with a majority of New Jersey voters supporting the legalization of gay marriage, more than half also back Gov. Chris Christie’s call for a November referendum on the question, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. At the same time, most say gay marriage is not one of their top issues.

As reported by the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll yesterday, 54 percent of Garden State voters favor legalizing same-sex marriage. At the same time, 53 percent of voters support Christie’s call for a vote on the issue while 40 percent support Newark Mayor Cory Booker’s position that gay marriage is a civil rights issue that should not be decided upon by voters. Even among those who support gay marriage, a majority wants a referendum.

While the Democratic-led Legislature has made gay marriage a top priority, fewer than 25 percent of voters say gay marriage is the most important or one of a very few important issues facing New Jersey today. “It’s surprising that so many of those who support same-sex marriage are also in favor of a referendum,” said Rutgers-Eagleton Poll Director David Redlawsk, a professor of political science at Rutgers. “It may be that given several polls showing majority support among voters, supporters of same-sex marriage think it would win in November. But in the face of a likely intensive campaign from opponents, this could be wishful thinking.”

Results are from a poll of 914 registered voters conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from Feb. 9-11. The full sample has a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.

Clear support for referendum across most demographic groups

While 54 percent of registered voters support legalizing gay marriage, voters also want to be able to weigh in on the issue – 53 percent of all voters support Christie’s proposal to have a referendum. This majority support for a ballot question persists across most demographic groups as well as among those who support legalization. Among gay marriage supporters, half also favor Christie’s call for a referendum, while 44 percent oppose it. Among those who oppose gay marriage, 60 percent support the referendum.

The referendum issue was raised in the context of the governor’s call for a ballot question and Booker’s stance that same-sex marriage is about civil rights and not for voters to decide. Given the framing, it is notable that voters with a favorable impression of Booker are evenly split on the call for a referendum, 47 percent for and 48 percent against. Voters with a favorable opinion of Christie clearly support a referendum, 66 percent to 29 percent.

“Despite strong favorable ratings, Mayor Booker’s position is in the minority,” said Redlawsk. “While those with an unfavorable impression of him strongly support a referendum, it is interesting that those who like the mayor are evenly split. The messenger may be liked, but the message is not resonating with most voters.”

Groups with majorities opposed to a referendum include Democrats (54 percent), those with more than a college degree (53 percent) and black voters (52 percent). Democratic voters and black voters likely oppose the referendum in part because Christie is calling for it, but also due to efforts to make a strong connection between gay marriage and civil rights, and the historical controversy surrounding putting civil rights issues on the ballot. The connection to civil rights may resonate especially with black voters despite the fact that a majority of black voters actually oppose legalizing gay marriage.

In addition, just over half of the highest income voters, just under half of liberals and half of those in a public union household also oppose the referendum

Gay marriage not a top priority for voters

As a marriage bill makes its way through the New Jersey Legislature, 40 percent of voters say gay marriage is not at all important in the context of other issues facing the state. Just over one-third believe the issue is “somewhat important” and only 22 percent call gay marriage the most important (3 percent) or “one of a few very important issues” (19 percent) that need to be addressed. This result appears across all demographic groups, with most in each group believing the issue is not important at all with only a few groups having a majority who believe it is somewhat important.

Among gay marriage supporters, about one-third think the issue is at least very important. Almost half (46 percent) think it is somewhat important and about a quarter (22 percent) think it is not important at all. A large majority of opponents (62 percent) believe the issue unimportant.

Thirty percent of Democrats, 36 percent of liberals, and 39 percent of those under 30 believe gay marriage is at least one of a few very important issues in New Jersey. Twenty-eight percent of Born Again Christians feel the same, even though they are overwhelmingly against legalization. On the other hand, Republicans and conservatives – two other groups fiercely opposed to gay marriage – are much more likely to believe the issue is not important at all.

“Supporters of same-sex marriage may have a better opportunity than in most states, if the issue were to go to referendum,” said Redlawsk. “In most places where it has been on the ballot, opponents have been the ones who were intensely concerned and mobilized by the campaign. In New Jersey, most opponents of same-sex marriage appear to not care as much about it as supporters, at least for the moment. But a strong opposition campaign could change that.”

Only about 41 percent of those who think gay marriage is very important support letting the voters decide. But more than half who believe the issue is only somewhat important or not important at all also support Christie’s proposal.

Support for gay marriage increases for many demographic groups

Support for legalizing same-sex marriage in New Jersey has increased across various demographic groups. Joining Democrats (63 percent) and liberals (81 percent) as supporters, a majority of independents (56 percent) and moderates (55 percent) are in favor of gay marriage. Voters of all age groups – except for those over 65 – are in support as well: 77 percent of those under 30, 57 percent of those 30-to-49-years-old, and 55 percent of those 50- to-64. For the first time, a clear majority of Catholics (52 percent) and males (52 percent) support same-sex marriage. Women (57 percent) and those of higher socioeconomic status – higher education (59 percent for college graduates and 68 percent for those who have completed graduate work) and higher income (more than half of voters in each of two highest income brackets) – continue to support legalization.

However, gay marriage still faces strong opposition from those groups who typically oppose it. Republican (58 percent) and conservative (69 percent) voters are still greatly opposed. Half of Protestants, 70 percent of evangelical Christians, and over half of those voters 65 years and older also show majorities opposed to legalization. Half of black voters are opposed as well.

RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL: MAJORITY OF NEW JERSEY VOTERS SUPPORT GAY MARRIAGE

PDF of the release with all tables here.

Today we release initial results from our polling over the past weekend on the question of same-sex marriage. Not surprisingly, given the results of our previously released polls on this question, a majority of NJ voters continues to support legal recognition for same sex marriage. Pretty much no matter how we have asked this question over the past six months, we have found a majority in support. Today’s results confirm that even as the debate has heated up again with the introduction of a marriage equality bill in the NJ legislature, positions have shifted little. We do see some increased support in certain groups – in particular men overall have become more supportive.  But increases in some groups have been offset by stronger opposition among the most conservative voters, who have moved 8 points more negative since October. The result is little change in aggregate opinion, but some evidence of ideological polarization.

The full text of the release follows. You can get a PDF of the release with all tables here.

RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL: MAJORITY OF NEW JERSEY VOTERS
SUPPORT GAY MARRIAGE

Some polarization evident as legislature debates the issue

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. – As the New Jersey state Senate prepares to vote on gay marriage, a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll shows that 54 percent of Garden State voters say gay marriage should be legalized. Fewer than 40 percent oppose such a move, while 7 percent have no position on the issue. The last time the state legislature debated a marriage bill, during the 2009 lame-duck session, only 46 percent of Garden Staters were in favor, and 40 percent opposed.

“Over the past two years there has been a clear shift towards support for same-sex marriage in national polling and in New Jersey,” said Rutgers-Eagleton Poll director David Redlawsk, a professor of political science at Rutgers University in New Brunswick. “This shift has occurred pretty much across the spectrum, with the exception of the strongly religious and most conservative voters. And while there has been little aggregate change since this reintroduction of the marriage bill we are seeing some ideological polarization as the debate develops.”

Results are from a poll of 914 registered voters conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from Feb. 9-11. The full sample has a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.

Support for Gay Marriage in New Jersey

Majority support for legalizing gay marriage in New Jersey cuts across demographic groups. Self-identified liberals are the most supportive, at 81 percent, while 63 percent of Democrats say they favor legalization. Majorities of moderates (55 percent) and independent voters (56 percent) are also in favor. Younger voters are overwhelmingly supportive, with three-quarters of those under 30 supporting gay marriage. Except for the oldest voters, other age groups are also supportive: 57 percent of those 30 to 49 years old express support for legalization, along with 55 percent of those 50 to 64 years old.

Despite ongoing expressions of concern by Catholic Church leadership, a 52 percent majority of Catholic voters continue to support legalizing same-sex marriage. Protestant voters, however, are less supportive, with only 43 percent in favor and 50 percent opposed.

Since a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll in October 2011, men have become more supportive of gay marriage. In October, 47 percent of men supported legalization while 45 percent opposed. Today, a majority of men – 52 percent – are in favor, while 40 percent oppose. Women remain more supportive, 57 percent to 37 percent, similar to the October poll.

“Support for legalizing same-sex marriage runs deep in New Jersey, with limited exceptions,” said Redlawsk. “And while there is no doubt that many of those who oppose the idea feel strongly about it, most New Jerseyans in most demographic groups think it is time to make same-sex marriage legal.”

Opposition to Gay Marriage

Strong opposition to gay marriage does remain within certain groups. Voters who are born-again or evangelical Christians are strongly opposed, with 7 in 10 against legalizing gay marriage. Conservative voters express opposition in similar numbers with 69 percent opposed and 24 percent in favor. Also against gay marriage are voters 65 years old and older, of whom 55 percent oppose and only 37 percent support legalization. Not surprisingly, only 35 percent of Republican voters support the measure, while 58 percent oppose it. And while white voters are in favor by 56 percent to 36 percent, Black voters feel differently with half opposing and 43 percent supporting legalizing gay marriage.

“Opposition to gay marriage is driven primarily by strong religious beliefs for many of its opponents, somewhat independently of political beliefs,” noted Redlawsk. “In particular, Black voters, who reliably vote Democratic, break with the large majority of the party in their opposition, reflecting a more conservative outlook on key social issues like same-sex marriage.”

Polarization as the Debate has Developed

Today’s results suggest ideological polarization on the issue since October. During the past four months moderates have become more supportive, moving from 49 percent support to 55 percent today. Liberals have also shifted even more in favor, up from 75 percent to 81 percent. Conservative voters, on the other hand, have become even more opposed, dropping by 8 points from 32 percent support in October to 24 percent today. The gap between liberals and conservative on legalizing gay marriage has increased from 43 points to 57 points over just a few months.

“As the Democrats in the legislature focus on same-sex marriage, voters have responded by becoming more polarized on the issue,” said Redlawsk. “Debates like this focus public opinion on the two opposite positions, moving apart those even slightly inclined one way or the other. Polarization reflects voters paying more attention and better aligning their own position on the issue with their overall ideological preferences.”

Some Suprising Gay Marriage/Civil Union Findings

Today we release results on a series of questions on gay marriage and civil unions in New Jersey from our most recent poll. This is a poll of registered voters, so it cannot be generalize to all adults, but it still gives us a useful look at things. First, and most obviously, the numbers for gay marriage are rather surprising to us. When we last polled on this in November 2009 (with an adult sample), NJ favored gay marriage by a slight margin, 46% to 42%, with 12% don’t know (and, though we didn’t include them, about 2.5% of adults would not answer the question.)

In our new poll of registered voters, support has climbed to 52%. That’s not what it stunning. The surprising number is that only 32% say they oppose, a pretty significant decline not only over 2009, but also much lower than a recent automated poll of landlines by PPP. We also now have more don’t knows, and a larger percentage (about 4%!) refused to answer the question (Again, these are not included in the numbers in the release.)

This could be random chance, or it could be real change. Or it could be more opponents unwilling to tell us how they truly feel on this. This latter point makes sense, since we see some of the largest don’t knows among conservatives and Republicans, who might be expect to oppose gay marriage. Or they may be don’t knows because they are really less sure than they once were.

In some ways, the more interesting part of the poll is our effort to test support for Civil Unions in the context of gay marriage, something that is rarely done. We find even greater support for civil unions – when we phrase it as “Instead of” and “an alternative to” gay marriage. In general, New Jerseyans while expressing support for gay marriage, may well prefer the status quo of legalized civil unions.

Parsing the numbers further we find that about 11% oppose BOTH gay marriage and civil unions and 13% support ONLY gay marriage. That leaves a lot of people in the middle. And most of them support civil unions as an alternative to gay marriage – though 15% don’t know where they stand on this one.

The text of the press release is below. But to really understand the nuances you should read the PDF with all the questions and tables.

MAJORITY OF NEW JERSEYANS FAVORS GAY MARRIAGE BUT SHOWS MORE SUPPORT FOR CIVIL UNIONS AS AN ALTERNATIVE, RUTGERS POLL FINDS

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. – A clear majority of New Jersey voters now supports legalizing gay marriage here, with 52 percent in favor, 32 percent opposed and 16 percent unsure, a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll finds. The margin in support has grown significantly over the past two years. However, given the choice of civil unions instead of gay marriage, even more voters (58 percent) support this alternative.

“We were surprised by the margin favoring gay marriage, which is much greater than previously reported,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers. “While the number of supporters has grown only a little, the number directly opposing gay marriage has fallen significantly. At the same time, more people say they are unsure or refuse to answer the question. These may be voters who are uncomfortable with gay marriage but who don’t want to express direct opposition, suggesting support is not as lopsided as it appears.”

The strong preference for civil unions as an alternative to gay marriage also suggests support for same-sex marriage is not as deep as it appears. More than two-thirds of gay marriage supporters say they support civil unions as an alternative, as do 54 percent of gay marriage opponents and 41 percent of those not sure where they stand on gay marriage.

Results are from a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll of 615 registered voters conducted among both landline and cell phone households from Aug. 9 – 15, with a margin of error for the full sample of +/- 3.9 percentage points

Support for gay marriage in New Jersey

Women are more likely than men to support gay marriage, 58 percent to 47 percent.  Younger voters are supportive, but support declines with age: 77 percent of voters under 30 are in favor, while support declines to only 35 percent of voters over 65.

Support increases as levels of education increase, with 46 percent of those with high school or less, rising to 62 percent of those who have attended graduate school.

Not surprisingly, 61 percent of Democrats (and 58 percent of independents) support gay marriage; 51 percent of Republicans oppose it. Similarly, 83 percent of self-reported “liberals” and 56 percent of “moderates” favor gay marriage. In contrast, 18 percent of conservatives are for gay marriage and 61 percent are opposed.

“We see an interesting pattern, with Republicans and conservatives much more likely to say ‘don’t know’ to the gay marriage question,” noted Redlawsk. “This suggests either some measure of uncertainty and changing attitudes by these voters, or perhaps reluctance to express a negative view in a state known for support of gay rights.”

Catholics show slightly more support for same-sex marriage than Protestants by four percentage points. How frequently respondents attend religious services is a stronger indicator of personal feelings than affiliation. Those who attend at least once a week are least likely to support gay marriage: 25 percent in favor to 60 percent opposed. Support increases with less frequent religious service attendance; 66 percent who attend a religious service once a month or less support gay marriage, while only 19 percent oppose.

New Jerseyans New York’s recent legalization of gay marriage did not affect their views. Only 14 percent of voters said they were more likely to support gay marriage after its legalization in New York, while a large majority – 73 percent – said the new law in New York had no effect on their opinion. Nearly all who were unsure about legalizing gay marriage in New Jersey – a group that might have been influenced by the New York results – also claimed that legalization of gay marriage in New York had no effect on their opinion.

Stronger support for civil unions as an alternative

Almost six-in-10 (58 percent) of respondents strongly support same-sex civil unions as an alternative to gay marriage; 26 percent oppose them. This support runs deep, with a majority within every age group supporting a civil union alternative: 57 percent of 18 to 29 year-olds, 56 percent of 30 to 49 year-olds, 61 percent of 50 to 64 year-olds and 52 percent of those 65 and over. Democrats, Republicans, and independents all support civil unions as an alternative, at 58 percent, 55 percent, and 57 percent, respectively.

“These results suggest that support for gay marriage itself is not as deep or broad as might be assumed by looking at New Jersey polls,” said Redlawsk. “What New Jersey voters do support is legal recognition of same-sex relationships. For many, if not most, civil unions fit the bill just fine as an alternative to gay marriage.”

While a majority of voters support the civil union alternative, those most likely to support gay marriage are also less likely to support civil unions instead. A quarter of gay marriage supporters oppose civil unions as an alternative (14 percent of all New Jersey voters). Democrats, liberals and younger voters are all much more likely to support gay marriage than civil unions. Those with a gay family member are also more likely to prefer same-sex marriage than the civil unions. Republicans, conservatives and older voters are all more likely to prefer civil unions.

“Opposition to civil unions comes from both ends of the spectrum,” said Redlawsk. “For some, any form of legal recognition of same-sex partners is unacceptable. For others, marriage is the only alternative they support. But most New Jerseyans fall in the middle.”

Despite support, gay marriage not an important issue for most

Only 2 percent of voters believe gay marriage is the most important issue the state faces; 13 percent say it is one of a few important issues. In contrast, 36 percent say legalization of gay marriage is only “somewhat important” and 46 percent believe that it is not an important issue at all. These results have changed little from a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll in early November 2009.

This view cuts across all political parties. Only 23 percent of Democrats, 14 percent of independents, and 9 percent of Republicans state that gay marriage is most important or one of a few very important issues.

Supporters of gay marriage are more likely to say it is an important issue: 72 percent see it as at least somewhat important. Opponents are much more likely to see the issue as unimportant, with 61 percent attaching no importance to the issue.

Knowing someone who is gay or lesbian increases support

Many New Jersey voters say they have gay or lesbian family members (32 percent) or friends (66 percent). These respondents are eight points more likely to support gay marriage, while those with a gay family member are 16 percentage points more supportive of gay marriage. Those with a gay family member express less support for civil unions.

Gay marriage, however, is not a top issue even for those close to someone who is gay.  Only 18 percent with a gay or lesbian friend or family member say legalization of gay marriage is the most important issue or one of a few very important issues facing New Jersey today, only slightly more than those without a gay or lesbian friend of family member.

“Most voters are comfortable with the status-quo – legal civil unions – even if they say they support gay marriage,” said Redlawsk. “There seems to be little likelihood of changing the situation in New Jersey.”