Strong Support in NJ for Minimum Wage Increase and Same Sex Marriage; Dems Lead in Generic Legislative Ballot

Today we release more from our April 3-7 Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. We focus on an issue that will be on the fall ballot — a minimum wage increase — and an issue that Gov. Chris Christie has called on the legislature to place on the ballot: same-sex marriage. We find that NJ voters strongly support both a $1.00 increase in the state’s minimum wage and joining the list of states that have approved same-sex marriage. Inf act, we have 62 percent saying they would vote for same-sex marriage if it were on the ballot. This is the strongest support we have ever recorded on this issue.

And despite the fact that Gov. Christie continues to lead in his re-election effort by a large margin, voters seem ready to split their ballots, since a generic ballot test puts Democrats well ahead of Republicans for the legislative races statewide. Now it is important to recognize that this is NOT the same as polling individual legislative races in all 80 districts. We simply cannot afford to do that since each one would require at least 400 respondents to do it justice – a total of 32,000 respondents statewide, far more than the typical 800-900 of a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. But history tells us that the generic statewide ballot test is a pretty good indicator of who is likely to control the state legislature in the next session.  While some individual races will be close, and some seats could flip, it will take a closing of the gap for control of the legislature to return to the Republicans. Still it is very early, and a lot can happen in the next six months.

Full text of the release follows. Click here for a PDF of the release with questions and tables.

VOTERS STRONGLY SUPPORT MINIMUM WAGE INCREASE, SAME-SEX MARRIAGE, DEMOCRATS FOR LEGISLATURE

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – New Jersey’s registered voters strongly support a constitutional amendment to raise the state’s minimum wage by one dollar and index it to inflation, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. The increase from $7.25 to $8.25 an hour will be on the November ballot and is supported by 76 percent of voters. Only 20 percent express opposition. Support is wide, and includes a majority of Republicans who plan to vote for the increase, despite Gov. Chris Christie’s earlier veto of a similar measure.

“Voters here appear sympathetic to low-wage workers,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. “Everyone feels the high cost of living. That likely means most recognize the difficulty of living on minimum wage. The willingness to increase the minimum cuts across all political boundaries.”

A proposal to place the question of same-sex marriage on the fall ballot also gets broad support; voters want a chance to decide by a 68 percent to 25 percent margin. Given a chance, New Jersey seems likely to become the latest state to legalize same-sex marriage: 62 percent would vote yes on the question, 30 percent would vote no, while 8 percent are unsure. This represents the highest level of support for gay marriage ever recorded in a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll.

Asked about the upcoming legislative races, voters are at least 15 points more likely to support Democrats than Republicans for the General Assembly and state Senate. This is despite Christie’s popularity and huge re-election lead over Democratic state Sen. Barbara Buono. Results of this ballot test have changed little since the last Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, taken in February.

About six months from Election Day, Democratic support for the Assembly is stronger than GOP support, 38 percent to 23 percent, and for the Senate, 43 percent to 26 percent. Twenty-six percent are unsure of their Assembly vote and 22 percent are not certain about the Senate.

Of those with an opinion, twice as many voters view the Democratic-controlled Legislature favorably as unfavorably (41 percent to 20 percent). Nearly 40 percent have no opinion.

“Governor Christie’s 30-point lead over Sen. Buono is not trickling down to preferences for the Legislature,” said Redlawsk. “Statewide, voters seem quite willing to split their ballot. But we have not polled individual races, so although Democrats hold a large overall lead, some specific races are likely to be more competitive.”

Results are from a poll of 923 New Jersey adults conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from April 3-7. The sample includes 819 registered voters reported on here, with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.

Support for higher minimum wage crosses typical dividing lines

Earlier this year, the Legislature placed a constitutional amendment on November’s ballot to increase the minimum wage. The amendment receives majority support from all demographic groups except conservatives, who are split at 47 percent. More than seven in 10 Christie supporters favor the proposed amendment despite the governor’s opposition to this specific proposal. More than nine in 10 Buono backers favor the increase. Majority support for the amendment crosses party lines: 91 percent of Democrats and 57 percent of Republicans are in favor. More than 70 percent of independents also support the measure.

Though majorities of both men and women favor the amendment, a double-digit gender gap appears: 83 percent of women are in favor versus 69 percent of men. Support falls as income rises. Eighty-two percent in the lowest income bracket would vote for the amendment, compared to 69 percent in the highest income bracket.

“Unless strong opposition emerges, this amendment is highly likely to pass,” said Redlawsk. “Given the economic dislocation of the last four years, large numbers of New Jerseyans have been touched by joblessness and financial challenges. Most seem to think those at the lower end of the ladder deserve a chance to do better.”

Most would vote for same-sex marriage

As the Legislature considers putting same-sex marriage on the ballot, 69 percent of voters want to vote on it, while 25 percent do not and 6 percent are uncertain. Although Christie initially called for a vote, which Democrats in Trenton opposed, liking or disliking the governor makes no difference to support for putting the question on the ballot.

Likewise, 68 percent of both Democrats and Republicans support a ballot measure. Black voters are 11 points less likely than whites to want voters to decide – 62 percent to 73 percent. But 82 percent of voters under 30 want the chance to vote on same-sex marriage.

If the issue reaches the ballot, voters seem overwhelmingly in favor of adoption. Support for same-sex marriage is at its highest level ever recorded in a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll (62 percent in favor, 30 percent opposed). Seventy-five percent who support a ballot question favor same-sex marriage. Twenty percent would veto the measure.

Three-quarters of those who want the issue on the ballot would vote in favor, while 20 percent would oppose legalization. A majority (59 percent) of those opposed to allowing voters decide the matter also oppose legalization while 34 percent support it. “Many of those who oppose same-sex marriage appear to recognize it is likely to pass if on the ballot,” noted Redlawsk. “Thus they would prefer to keep it off the ballot in the first place.”

Large majorities of Democrats (72 percent) and independents (63 percent) favor same-sex marriage compared to 40 percent of Republicans. Only 31 percent of conservatives would vote yes, but same-sex marriage legalization has gained majority support across virtually all other groups.

“While Democratic leaders have called same-sex marriage a civil right that should not be subject to a vote, the evidence is that voters would readily align New Jersey with other states that have already legalized same-sex marriage,” Redlawsk said. “It may simply be time to move that way for those who want the issue resolved.”

Will Christie’s coattails matter in November?

Democrats continue to lead Republicans by double-digits in a test pitting the two parties in November’s state Senate and Assembly races. Among the two-thirds of voters who feel favorably toward Christie, 32 percent will vote GOP for the Assembly, but 25 percent will vote Democratic. Among those who dislike Christie, 67 percent say they will vote for Democrats, and only 4 percent will support Republicans.

Voters’ partisanship hurts the GOP’s chances, since few say they will cross party lines: 74 percent of Democrats and 76 percent of Republicans will vote for their own parties in the Assembly. Independents, however, are nearly evenly split, with 20 percent preferring Democrats, 19 percent favoring Republicans and 44 percent undecided, very different from the strong independent support Christie enjoys in his own re-election effort. Also, Republicans do not get pluralities from their typical groups, except conservatives (60 percent support) and a one point edge in exurban counties.

“This says little about individual races,” noted Redlawsk, “but this statewide ballot test has usually been a good indicator of which party will control the Legislature. Two years ago, voters wanted Democrats to remain in control by nine points, and of course they did retain control.”

Similar results are seen for the state Senate, where Christie backers are six points more likely to vote Republican (36 percent to 30 percent.) But 70 percent of voters who are Christie detractors prefer a Democrat versus 5 percent who will vote GOP. Democrat Buono pulls more supporters from her party: 79 percent of Buono voters will vote for Democrats for state Senate (and 75 percent for Assembly Democrats), compared to only 43 percent of Christie voters who will vote for a Republican state senator and 37 percent who will vote Republican in the Assembly races.

As with the Assembly, most partisans will vote their party for state Senate. Independents are evenly split at 25 percent each, with 39 percent unsure. Republicans in the state Senate do no better with winning over demographic groups than does the GOP in the Assembly.

Head-to-Head with Buono, Christie Continues a Strong Lead, But…

Following up on Wednesday’s release on ratings for Gov. Chris Christie, today we look more closely at this year’s election for governor. NJ state Sen. Barbara Buono is the presumed Democratic challenger, so we look at head-to-head matches between her and Christie. We also asked voters to name the most important problem facing the state and to tell us how closely they are following the race.
Bottom line is that Christie continues to hold a very large lead – 30 points – over the nearly unknown Buono. But, this lead is down from 42 points in February, as Democrats have begun to shift to Buono after flirting with Christe, post-Hurricane Sandy. Still, unless Buono can do more than bring the Democratic base home, Christie is in good shape. But there is a lot of time until election day in November.

The text of the release follows. Click here for a PDF of the release with text, questions, and tables.

CHRISTIE CONTINUES TO HOLD LARGE LEAD OVER BUONO, THOUGH SOME TIGHTENING EVIDENT; MOST EXPECT HIM TO WIN

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – N.J. Governor Chris Christie maintains a dominating, yet shrinking, lead over presumed Democratic gubernatorial candidate state Senator Barbara Buono, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Christie now holds a 30 point lead among registered voters, 57 percent to 27 percent, down from his 42 point lead in a February Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Christie’s support has dropped six points, while Buono has picked up six points over the past two months, the new poll shows.

Regardless of which candidate they prefer, 8 in 10 voters believe Christie will win a second term. Even 61 percent of Buono supporters expect her to lose.

While Christie’s favorability rating has declined six points since February, Buono continues to struggle with name recognition. Just 18 percent have a favorable impression of Buono, 12 percent are unfavorable, and 70 percent have no opinion.

Nonetheless Buono has made significant inroads, but only because she is finally leading among Democratic voters along with some key constituent groups that usually lean Democratic. Independents remain overwhelmingly in Christie’s camp.

“While Christie maintains a large lead, some tightening is all but inevitable, since we expect most Democrats to vote the party line in November,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. “But unless Buono can make gains among independents and also get Democrats energized, she is going to have a long road ahead.”

Voters say taxes and jobs are the most important problems facing New Jersey. While Christie’s overall job approval is high at 68 percent, voters are much less positive about his performance on the economy and jobs (42 percent approval) and taxes (37 percent approval). Nonetheless, Christie overwhelms Buono, even among those who are unhappy with these parts of his performance.

Results are from a poll of 923 New Jersey adults conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from April 3-7. The sample includes 819 registered voters reported on here, with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.

More Democrats now backing Buono, but more than a quarter in Christie’s camp

In February Christie led Buono by four points among Democratic voters. Two months later Buono has an 18 point lead with Democrats, 49 percent to 31 percent. But nearly 20 percent of Democrats remain unsure of whom they will vote for. Buono now also holds leads among some parts of the Democratic coalition including liberals (50 percent for Buono), blacks (45 percent) and voters under 30 years old (43 percent). And while she wins a majority of voters who supported former Governor Jon Corzine , more than a quarter of them say they plan to vote for Christie.

Christie has lost few of his 2009 voters, with only about 10 percent either planning to vote for Buono or unsure. He maintains large leads among voters at all income and education levels, and even has a 53 percent to 29 percent lead among women. His margin among men is even larger at 60 percent to 24 percent. Christie’s support is also statewide, with large majorities in every region except urban counties, where voters are almost evenly split, giving Christie a small four point lead. One key to Christie’s continuing support is the 65 to 16 percent lead he holds among independent voters.

“While Buono has made some very noticeable gains among her base, many of the voters Democrats usually count on continue to support Christie,” said Redlawsk. “She can’t afford to give Christie a quarter of black voters, a majority of women, and even a third of liberals, as she does right now.”

At this still-early stage of election season, about half of voters say they are following the election either “Very closely” (12 percent) or “Somewhat closely” (36 percent.) But another third are not following the campaign closely, and 19 percent are not following it at all. Christie’s lead over Buono is just as strong among those paying careful attention as those who admit they are paying little attention.

Regardless of whom they support, most think that Christie will get a second term.  Even most Democrats (70 percent), those unfavorable toward Christie (64 percent), those favorable toward Buono (75 percent), and those who plan to vote for Buono (61 percent) think that the governor will win in November.

Christie’s ratings drop, but Buono sees no increase in recognition

As reported earlier this week, Christie’s favorability rating is down 6 points from February, while his overall job performance approval dropped 5 points. Nonetheless, about two-thirds of voters respond positively to the Governor, and few have no opinion.

Buono, however, remains largely unknown statewide and has seen no increase in recognition or favorability since February. Even 63 percent of Democratic voters report no impression of her. Three in ten Democrats are favorable, while only seven percent have an unfavorable impression of the Democratic candidate.

Three-quarters of independents have no opinion of Buono, while 12 percent view her favorably, and 13 percent are unfavorable. Buono also remains all but unknown to 72 percent of Republicans, with just 4 percent favorable and 24 percent unfavorable. Even most typical Democratic supporters such as women (74 percent), black voters (68 percent) and voters belonging to public union households (66 percent) have no impression of Buono.

“Until voters know more about her, it is unlikely that Buono will make much more progress,” said Redlawsk. “While some will vote against Christie no matter who his opponent is, challengers generally need to develop good name recognition to unseat an incumbent.”

Taxes and jobs top concerns

Asked to name New Jersey’s most important problem in their own words, 26 percent of voters identify taxes. Mentions of lack of jobs and unemployment follow closely behind at 24 percent. Ten percent name the economy in general, and another ten percent say education is the most important problem. The list is rounded out with crime and drugs at eight percent and government spending, waste, and corruption at six percent.

Word Cloud for “In just one or two words, please tell me what the most important problem is in New Jersey today.” Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, April 3-7, 2013

Democrats are more likely to say unemployment and jobs are most important (26 percent), followed by education and taxes, which tie for second at 16 percent. For independents, taxes are the top concern, with one-third expressing frustration with high taxes. Unemployment and jobs follows at 20 percent. Just over a third of Republicans also says taxes are most important, with another 24 percent calling jobs and unemployment the top problem.

Sixty-one percent of voters who name taxes as the most important problem believe Christie is spending too little time on the problem. Similarly, 59 percent of voters who say jobs are the key problem, express the same concern. Moreover, only a minority of all voters approve of the Governor’s performance in either of these areas. Despite this, Christie easily beats Buono among voters naming taxes or jobs as their top problem; illuminating the problem she faces in trying to unseat the Governor.

“Buono has clearly made progress, but so far she’s only convinced the voters who were always likely to vote against Christie,” said Redlawsk. “Even if many Democrats come home to their party, Buono has to do more to convince voters who disapprove Christie’s performance on the key problems to give her a chance. Otherwise Gov. Christie may coast to re-election on the strength of his overall job approval and favorability, even if the race gets a little closer.”

Latest on Gov. Chris Christie’s Ratings

Today we begin our next series of press releases from the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. The latest poll was in the field from April 3-7, and has a total of 923 NJ adult respondents, along with 819 registered voters. Our first focus is on our governor. We continue to see very high ratings for Gov. Christie both in terms of his favorability and his job performance.  But, five months after Hurricane Sandy we also see our first significant downward tick in his ratings. It appears most of it is due to Democrats who are starting to moderate their opinion of the governor. As we would expect, before Sandy Democrats on the whole were quite negative. Since Sandy hit, they have been uncharacteristically positive. Now we see that softening a bit. But, at the same time Christie’s support is holding up well with independents, and of course Republicans are solidly in his camp as they mostly were before the storm.

This time around we gave voters a chance to tell us in their own words why they are favorable or unfavorable toward Christie. Hurricane Sandy is a big reason for his support, especially for Democrats. Interestingly, virtually no Republicans named Sandy as their reason for liking Christie. On the other hand, for those who feel unfavorable, we find words like “bully” and reactions to his education reforms and battles with the teachers’ union leading the way.

The text of the release follows. Click here for a PDF with the full release text, along with questions and tables.

FIVE MONTHS AFTER SANDY CHRISTIE STILL GOING STRONG,
 BUT RATINGS SHOW SOME SLIPPAGE, RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL FINDS

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – Five months after Hurricane Sandy, New Jersey voters continue to give Gov. Chris Christie high marks for his job performance, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. However, weak spots have emerged and in general, Christie’s ratings have dropped slightly since February.

While overwhelmingly approving (87 percent) Christie’s post-Sandy recovery efforts, only 42 percent of voters approve of his handling of New Jersey’s economy and jobs and only 37 percent approve of his tax policy. About 50 percent approve of Christie’s efforts on education, the budget, and crime.

Christie’s work on Sandy recovery drives up his general approval ratings despite unhappiness about economic issues: 68 percent approve his overall job performance, 64 percent have a favorable impression, and 60 percent grade Christie A or B.

Polling has shown Christie all but invincible in the gubernatorial race, but there is some evidence his ratings are coming down from his record highs. Overall job performance is down five points and favorability is down six points from a February Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Christie’s approval on both the economy and taxes has fallen three points.

“Christie still has ratings any governor would love, but all-time highs generally come back toward earth over time,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. “With Sandy recovery helping drive overall approval and voters all but ecstatic at his efforts there, Christie remains in great political shape.”

Results are from a poll of 923 New Jersey adults conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from April 3-7. A subsample of 819 registered voters reported on here has a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.

Christie’s “character”

Twenty-six percent of voters maintain an unfavorable impression of Christie, up 6 points from February, while 64 percent of voters have a favorable impression. Democrats are most responsible for the overall decline, showing a 14-point drop to 45 percent. Independents (71 percent favorable) and Republicans (90 percent) show no significant change.

Favorability among men declined from 74 percent in February to 65 percent, while women’s admiration decreased by four points to 62 percent. Christie continues to receive very high favorability ratings from areas hardest hit by Sandy – northwest exurban (72 percent) and shore (75 percent) counties.

Among those viewing the governor favorably, one quarter use a range of character terms such as honest, integrity, and frankness to explain why they like him. Many mention how Christie “speaks his mind,” is a “straight shooter,” and “sticks to his beliefs.” But the single most named reason (18 percent) for liking Christie is his post-Sandy recovery work. Another 10 percent mention his governing and policy decisions.

Word Cloud for “In just a word or two can you tell me why you have a favorable impression of Gov. Christie?” Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, April 3-7, 2013

Among the 26 percent who dislike Christie, 30 percent name similar traits as supporters: but they question his character, honesty, and integrity, with many calling him a bully. The single most often named issue focuses on teachers and education (18 percent). Sixteen percent say Christie is uncaring, has the wrong priorities and is hurting the state and its citizens, and 10 percent cite his handling of such economic matters as the budget, taxes and fiscal responsibility.

Word Cloud for “In just a word or two can you tell me why you have an unfavorable impression of Gov. Christie?” Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, April 3-7, 2013

Democratic Christie supporters are mostly driven by Sandy (35 percent) and by perceptions of the governor’s honesty and integrity (20 percent).  But only 3 percent of Republicans cite Sandy as their primary reason. For GOP voters, honesty and integrity drive support at 28 percent, followed by Christie’s leadership (14 percent) and policy positions (12 percent). Among independents, 27 percent name honesty as their top reason for liking Christie, followed by Sandy recovery work at 16 percent.

Democrats’ unfavorable views of the governor are driven mostly by dislike of his education policies (18 percent) and impressions of Christie as confrontational (14 percent). Another 14 percent believe the governor does not care about New Jersey’s citizens.

“Christie’s natural Republican constituency likes his attitude and policies and sees him as a strong leader,” said Redlawsk. “Sandy doesn’t matter much to them. But for Democrats, we see clear evidence that the Sandy recovery is critical to support and probably also contributes to their sense of his integrity and honesty. Without those Democrats, Christie’s ratings would be much closer to where they were before Sandy hit.”

Christie job approval still high but dropping among Democrats

Almost six-in-10 voters (58 percent) continue to think New Jersey is headed in the right direction. Just over one-in-three (35 percent) continue to say the state is on the wrong track. Even so, the respondents’ approval of Christie’s overall job performance has dropped five points to 68 percent, while disapproval has risen slightly to 26 percent.

Democrats are clearly responsible for the decline; their approval has dropped 11 points since February to 51 percent. Three-quarters of independents and 93 percent of Republicans remain steady in their approval.

“This decline among Democrats is not surprising as we enter an election season,” noted Redlawsk. “As long as independents are strongly on Christie’s side he will continue to draw very positive ratings. If they move away, things could get interesting.”

While strongly backing Christie’s response to Sandy, more voters disapprove than favor his performance on the economy and jobs, 49 percent to 42 percent. More men (46 percent) than women (39 percent) like Christie’s economic performance. His highest approval on the economy comes from the exurban (54 percent) and Jersey Shore (47 percent) regions of the state.

Voters’ views on taxes show a similar, but more negative pattern. Overall, just 37 percent approve of the job Christie is doing on taxes while 56 percent disapprove. Sixty percent of women disapprove of Christie’s handling of taxes, and men are now more likely to disapprove (51 percent) than approve (42 percent).

Approval of the governor’s performance on education, an area of strength in February, is now more tenuous; 49 percent approve (down five points) and 44 percent who disapprove (up five points). Christie does better on the state budget, with 50 percent approving and 41 percent disapproving of his performance – appraisals that have remained steady over the past two months. Voters are much more positive on crime: 55 percent approve and 29 percent disapprove of his performance on this issue.

Christie continues strong in Hurricane Sandy approval ratings – 87 percent approve compared to only 9 percent who disapprove and 4 percent who are unsure. He continues to gets high marks from many of his usual detractors: those who view him unfavorably (75 percent approval), Democrats (87 percent), women (87 percent), black voters (82 percent), Hispanic voters (87 percent) and public union households (87 percent).

When asked to grade Christie’s efforts, 21 percent award an A, while another 39 percent give a B. Democrats have become their most critical graders since Sandy – 43 percent grade him A or B,  down from 52 percent in February. Independents have held steady with 64 percent awarding A or B, while 88 percent of Republicans (the same percentage as in November 2012) assign top grades, an increase of 8 points. Christie continues to get his highest marks from storm-battered exurban and shore regions, though down six and seven points respectively from the last poll.

A new take on Gov. Christie’s ratings

Today we release our latest polling on our governor, Chris Christie. As has been the case for other statewide polls since Superstorm Sandy, Gov. Christie has sky-high ratings. For us, that means his favorability rating is at an all time high, as is his job performance rating. Among all statewide polls, Christie’s ratings are the highest ever for any elected governor; only former Gov. and State Sen. Richard Codey has rated as highly during his unelected term.

But we thought it would be useful to dig a little deeper, to look at how voters view the governor’s performance on a range of issues. So we asked approval of how Christie is doing on Sandy, the economy and jobs, taxes, education, crime and drugs, and the state budget. Except for the last of these, the list was also part of our “most important problem” question.

What we find is that Gov, Christie’s ratings on specific issues are generally lower than his overall rating, except for his handling of Sandy. In fact,  more voters disapprove of his performance on the economy and on taxes than approve. The apparent take away is that Gov. Christie’s exemplary handling of Sandy and its aftermath is what has driven his overall ratings into record territory, but positive ratings on Sandy do not trickle down to other issues. And, as it turns out, far more people say the economy and taxes are the most important problem facing the state than see Sandy in that light.

Text of the release is below. Click here for a PDF of the release with all questions and tables.

RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL: GOV. CHRISTIE RATINGS REMAIN SKY-HIGH, BUT APPROVAL ON HANDLING ECONOMY AND TAXES LOWER

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – Gov. Chris Christie continues to ride high from his handling of Superstorm Sandy, but a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll finds registered voters are less pleased with his performance on their No. 1 issue: jobs and the economy. While 73 percent of voters approve of Christie’s overall job performance, only 45 percent specifically approve his handling of the economy, which 35 percent of voters say is the most important problem facing New Jersey.

High taxes ranks second to jobs: 31 percent of voters call this the most important problem. Christie’s approval rating on taxes is even lower, at 40 percent. In contrast, 86 percent of voters approve of how the governor has handled Superstorm Sandy, but only 11 percent say the storm’s aftermath is the most important problem, making it a distant third on the list of problems.

“Governor Christie remains very popular across the board, with a 70 percent favorability rating and continuing sky-high overall job approval,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers. “It appears that Christie’s handling of Sandy has made the difference, since voters are not nearly as positive about other key issues. If voters begin to focus on these issues instead of the Sandy recovery, we could see a change in the governor’s overall ratings over the next few months.”

Results are from a poll of 796 New Jersey adults conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from Jan. 30 – Feb. 3. Within this sample is a subsample of 698 registered voters reported on here; this subsample has a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.

Overall approval of Christie remains at record highs

Among registered voters, Christie continues to get record high marks for an elected governor, with favorability at 70 percent, up three points since a November Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Only 20 percent say they feel unfavorable toward the governor, a drop of five points.

Democrats, in particular, have become more positive toward Christie with a jump of 10 points to 59 percent favorable. Independents and Republicans have remained relatively steady at 71 percent and 88 percent favorable, respectively.

After nearly closing in November, a gender gap in favorability has reopened, but only because men have become five points more favorable, to 74 percent, while women remain steady at 66 percent favorable.

“Favorability measures how people feel about Christie as a person, and is not specifically about job performance,” noted Redlawsk. “The governor continues to generate very good feelings among voters of all stripes.”

As for Christie’s job performance, 73 percent of voters say they approve overall, with only 23 percent disapproving. Even 62 percent of Democrats approve of how Christie is doing his job, as do three-quarters of independents and 90 percent of Republicans.

When respondents assign letter grades to his work, 24 percent award an A, while another 40 percent give a B. In November, 28 percent awarded A and 33 percent a B.

Both Democrats and independents have become more positive about Christie’s job performance. Christie’s standing improved five points with each, so 52 percent of Democrats and 66 of independents now give the governor an A or B. Republicans have become less pleased, however. Eighty percent – an 8 percent decrease since November – award an A or B. Christie continues to get his best grades from storm-battered exurban and shore regions (71 percent and 73 percent, give an A or B, respectively).

Opinions on the direction of the state have remained steady, with 60 percent of voters saying New Jersey is headed in the right direction and 33 percent saying it is on the wrong track.

Potential risk ahead for Christie

As the 2013 gubernatorial race gets under way, polling puts Christie well ahead of any Democratic opponent. But an analysis of his job performance suggests the possibility of a more competitive race over time. While voters feel very positive and give the governor high job marks, approval of Christie’s performance on some key issues is a different matter.

Among registered voters, 35 percent say the economy and jobs is the most important problem facing the state, while 31 percent say it is high taxes. These issues are followed by Hurricane Sandy recovery at 11 percent, education and schools at 10 percent, and crime and drugs at 8 percent.

Voters are split on Christie’s performance on the economy and jobs (45 percent approve, 46 percent disapprove). Just over half of those who name the economy and jobs as the top problem disapprove of the way the governor is handling it, while 43 percent approve.

Forty percent of independents and 37 percent of Democrats approve of Christie’s performance on the economy and jobs, compared to 69 percent of Republicans. More men than women (50 percent to 41 percent) approve of Christie’s economic performance, while his highest marks come from the exurban (47 percent) and suburban (54 percent) regions of the state.

Respondents’ views on taxes show a similar pattern. Overall, 40 percent approve of the job Christie is doing here, while 52 percent disapprove. Only one-third of those who call high taxes the most important problem approve of how Christie is handling the issue while 63 percent disapprove.

Majorities of Democrats (59 percent) and independents (58 percent) disapprove of the governor’s tax efforts, but 65 percent of Republicans approve. Fifty-seven percent of women disapprove of Christie’s handling of taxes. Men are evenly split at 47 percent pro and con.

“Two-thirds of voters say the economy or high taxes are the most important problems facing the state. And for the most part voters are not fans of Christie’s job performance in these areas. This suggests there is real risk for Christie if the effects of Sandy wear off over time,” said Redlawsk. “Campaigns tend to focus voters on the issues they care about most. Whether that happens over the next few months will be something to watch very carefully.”

Christie’s political strength lies both in his personal favorability rating and in nearly universal approval of how he has handled Superstorm Sandy. He gets high marks across the board for his job with Sandy recovery, including approval from many of his typical opponents: those unfavorable toward him (77 percent), Democrats (85 percent), women (86 percent), black voters (84 percent), Hispanic voters (80 percent) and public union households (87 percent).

The governor’s performance on education is another area of strength; 54 percent of New Jerseyans are positive, 39 percent are negative. Voters also are positive about Christie on crime: 51 percent approve and 30 percent disapprove of his performance on this issue.

Finally, the governor gets more positive than negative marks on the state budget, with 49 percent approving and 38 percent disapproving his performance. But in the end, voters see these issues as less critical than high taxes, a perpetual complaint of New Jerseyans, and the economy, which seems to be only slowly picking up steam.

More on Superstorm Sandy – the Political Angle

Yesterday we talked about how Superstorm Sandy affected New Jersey residents. Today we turn to the political angle – that is, how do residents think their political leadership did in this test? The answer: Very well indeed. Both Gov. Christie and President Obama get high marks (Christie’s are higher) and the governors favorability rating is well above his previous high in any of our polls. And that bipartisan thing that so many national Republican leaders are upset about? Well, New Jerseyans – even GOP’ers – say it was exactly the right thing to do. National Republicans may be looking askance at our governor, but here in New Jersey he’s clearly done well.

Full text of the release follows. For a PDF with the text, questions, and tables, click here.

Oh, and CLICK HERE to help Superstorm Sandy victims!

HIGH MARKS FOR CHRISTIE, OBAMA, AND BIPARTISANSHIP IN SANDY AFTERMATH, RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL FINDS

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J –Garden Staters have responded very positively to NJ Gov. Chris Christie’s leadership following Superstorm Sandy, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. More than 90 percent praise the governor for his handling of the storm: 69 percent say Christie handled the crisis “very well” and another 23 percent say he handled it “somewhat well.”

And what about the headline-making, controversy-causing bipartisan relationship between Governor Christie and President Obama in Sandy’s wake? Eighty-one percent of New Jerseyans believe the two politicians showed “needed cooperation and bipartisanship,” compared to only 12 percent who think Christie “went too far in his praise” of the president.

The governor’s overall favorability rating now stands at 65 percent with all residents and 67 percent among registered voters, up more than 15 points from before the storm. Sixty-one percent of respondents say they support Christie more strongly due to his handling of the storm.

“Governor Christie has emerged as a clear leader in this crisis, with New Jerseyans applauding his efforts, and in particular his literal and figurative embrace of President Obama in a time of need,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers. “Despite a recent New York Times story that some national GOP leaders are condemning the governor for his show of bipartisanship, New Jerseyans of all stripes say it was exactly the right thing to do.”

New Jersey residents also commend President Obama, with 84 percent of residents saying Obama did “somewhat” or “very well” during the crisis. But most say this had no effect on how they voted: more than three-quarters of voters say the president’s response made no difference, while 18 percent say his assistance with Sandy made them more likely to vote for him.

Results are from a poll of 1,228 New Jersey adults conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from Nov 14-17. The sample has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. Within this sample is a subsample of 1,108 registered voters; this subsample has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

Strong bipartisan support for Christie

Democrats, independents, and Republicans all applaud the governor’s storm efforts. Two-thirds of Democrats and independents, and 78 percent of Republicans, say Christie did very well. Sixty percent of Democrats and independents say they now are stronger Christie supporters; 68 percent of Republicans feel the same. The governor’s favorability has reached bipartisan highs, with 49 percent of Democrats, 70 percent of independents, and 89 percent of Republicans saying they now have a favorable impression of Christie. Only 38 percent of Democrats report an unfavorable impression, a drop from 68 percent in early October, when only 22 percent of Democrats felt favorably toward the governor.

“Christie’s bipartisan outreach and his visible leadership resulted in high marks from people of all political persuasions,” said Redlawsk. “This is a nice exception to the typical partisan splits over nearly anything the governor does. In a time of crisis, people expect their elected leaders to put politics aside, and when that happens, they respond very positively.”

Christie receives high praise even from his customary detractors. Almost three-quarters of women (72 percent) think Christie handled the crisis very well, and 64 percent say they are now more supportive of him. Fifty-three percent of black residents and 61 percent of Hispanics say the governor did very well. Forty-three percent of blacks and 55 percent of Hispanics also say they are now more supportive of Christie.

The governor’s strongest support comes from those regions most heavily affected by Superstorm Sandy. Eighty-three percent of shore county residents say Christie handled the crisis very well, as do 76 percent of northwestern New Jersey (exurban) residents. More than 60 percent in each region are now more supportive of Christie because of his actions. Little difference in opinion exists between those personally affected by the storm and those who were not.

“The governor has clearly built a reservoir of goodwill through his aggressive approach to Sandy,” said Redlawsk. “The timing makes things interesting – those intending to run against him next year must make their decisions soon, yet the governor is clearly riding high right now. How long this reservoir lasts will help determine who gets in and who stays out of the 2013 gubernatorial race.”

Obama’s response also praised

While the president’s support does not quite reach the lofty levels seen for Christie, majorities of most groups say the president did at least somewhat well handling the crisis.
Virtually all Democrats commend him, and 76 percent say he did very well. While 61 percent of GOP respondents give the president a positive rating on his post-Sandy actions, only 27 percent say the president did very well.

Obama’s response to the storm had little impact on voters on Election Day, however, except for those already likely to vote for him. Thirty percent of Democrats say Obama’s storm response made them more likely to vote for him, compared to 12 percent of independents and five percent of Republicans. About one-fifth of women and 30 percent of black voters feel the same. Voters in the hardest hit regions – exurban and shore counties, which lean Republican – were most likely to say Obama’s response had no effect on their votes at all (81 percent and 77 percent, respectively).

Newark Mayor Cory Booker’s storm efforts, though not as well known throughout the rest of the state, notably score highly in urban areas, with 58 percent saying the mayor did somewhat or very well with the crisis. One-third are unsure.

Christie-Obama storm tour earns strong bipartisan support

In the midst of countless media stories and GOP controversy over Christie’s praise and embrace of Obama after the storm, New Jersey residents – including over two-thirds of Christie’s own party – support the show of bipartisanship by the Governor and the President. Eighty-eight percent of Democrats, 80 percent of independents, and 69 percent of Republicans say Christie’s gratitude toward and interaction with Obama was a necessary display of bipartisanship.

Only a quarter of Republicans feel Christie went too far and possibly hurt Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign. Likewise, 67 percent of conservatives support the bipartisan showing. Among those who voted, 68 percent of Romney supporters feel the bipartisanship was necessary, while 28 percent think Christie’s praise of the President was detrimental.

Sandy made voting more difficult for a few

Despite the storm’s timing, few voters had trouble casting their ballots. Only 7 percent of voters personally affected by Sandy say they found it difficult to vote. Statewide, 86 percent of voters said they experienced no difficulty at all. Among registered voters who said they failed to get to the polls, 20 percent say the storm played a role, though most had other reasons for not voting. Residents living in areas most affected by Sandy, shore and exurban counties are more likely to blame the storm for their failure to vote.

“Turnout here was noticeably lower than in most presidential elections,” noted Redlawsk, “but it’s hard to determine if Sandy was the reason. It seems likely that much of the drop was Sandy-related, although it also might be attributed to the fact New Jersey was not a battleground state.”

Quick thoughts on the election

As we noted the other day, we had planned to do a pre-election poll in New Jersey but those plans were stopped by Superstorm Sandy. As it turns out, might not have made much difference. When we last polled – 5 weeks ago! – we had President Obama up by 17 points over Romney in the state. In doing so, we seemed a bit of an outlier. As it turns out, looks like the president won by, you guessed it, 17 points.

In that poll, we had the ballot question on a bond issue for higher education at 62% support. Last night it won 61%.

We were off, however, on the judge’s pay ballot issue, which won 83% of the vote – we pegged it at only 70% support.

Not that we think polling 5 weeks ahead of the election is a good indicator of what will happen on election day. But at least in the NJ presidential race, nothing happened – we were not a battleground, so we had no campaign. With no campaign, the numbers simply didn’t move.
One thing that is annoying today is the “No Change Election” meme being floated. Yes, it is true that Obama is still president, the Republicans still have the House, and the Democrats still have the Senate. BUT, on a national level, real change is evident. Instead of losing Senate seats, Democrats picked up, and may now have a 55-45 margin (including the two independents) up from 53-47 before the election. That small change is evidence of something underneath the overall numbers, and that something drove not only Obama’s re-election but also state level results like the passing of same sex marriage in three states (MD, ME, WA) when it has NEVER won a popular vote before, and the failure of a one-man-one-woman constitutional amendment in Minnesota. California actually voted to tax itself for education. Women made historic gains in the U.S. Senate. And other small, yet significant, changes appear below the national level.

These changes are driven by fundamental changes in the electorate. Young people are voting and have very different attitudes on race, gender, and social issues than do their elders. And Latino’s made up 10 percent of the electorate, with significant consequences. There is change, it is just hard to see if you only look at the big picture.

At the presidential level, our initial simple assessment is that Obama won in the end because:

The electorate in the United States is changing. More Hispanic voters that ever showed up to vote (they made up about 10% of all voters) and they overwhelmingly voted for Obama. In addition, 93 percent of African Americans voted Obama. Young voters (under 30) also strongly supported him. Whites made up only 72 percent of the electorate, continuing a steady decline in influence. Even though they went for Romney, it is no longer enough to have an overwhelmingly white electoral coalition.

Obama’s voter mobilization operation was better than Romney’s. Obama had many more campaign offices and people “on the ground” doing the hard work of getting people to go to the polls to vote. That allowed him to win a number of close states.

Voters did not like Mitt Romney as much as Obama and they did not blame Obama as much as they did former President Bush for the economic problems. They seem willing to give Obama more time to make things better.

That’s our no-pre-election-poll wrap up. We will be back in the field soon with a post-election poll and our initial look at the 2013 elections. Yep, they’ve already started…

In partnership with WNYC, Rutgers-Eagleton Poll looks at health care issues

Today we release interesting results of a series of questions we asked about health care reform issues in our latest poll. We worked with The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC radio to develop questions on support for the Supreme Court decision upholding the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), a major proposed change to Medicare, the expansion of Medicaid under the ACA, and whether people trust government or insurance companies on health insurance matters.

Full text of the release follows. For a PDF of the text along with questions and tables, click here.

An Increasing Number of New Jerseyans Appear to Support Obamacare, WNYC/Rutgers-Eagleton Poll Finds
But voters also trust private insurance companies more than government

A clear majority of New Jersey voters support the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision upholding most of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), according to a new WNYC/Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Nearly 6-in-10 registered voters in the Garden State say the Supreme Court was right to uphold the law, while 37 percent wanted it struck down. This represents a significant increase in support, compared to the 47 percent who supported the law in a March, 2010 Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Other key findings of the poll include:

Given a choice between changing Medicare to a system providing fixed payments to seniors who would then buy their own insurance or maintaining the current system, more than two-thirds would stick with Medicare as it is. Only one-quarter supports changing the system to allow purchasing insurance on the market.

The ACA’s provision expanding Medicaid is popular in New Jersey, even though the state has not yet decided whether to participate in the expansion. Just over one-third opposes expanding Medicaid eligibility, while 57 percent support extending its coverage to more low income residents.

At the same time, voters are dubious about government decisions about health insurance: only 35 percent trust government on matters related to health insurance, while 44 percent trust private insurance companies more.

“New Jerseyans are for the most part supportive of the affordable health care act,” said Redlawsk. “While not all that supportive of government making health insurance decisions, they are still quite happy with the prospects of keeping children on parents’ policies and not being denied coverage for pre-existing conditions.”

“We learn again how incredibly conflicted people are when it comes to both health insurance and the role of government,” said Brian Lehrer. “Folks responding to this poll trust private insurance more than government in the abstract, but prefer Medicare to an insurance marketplace in their real lives. It’s also interesting that most New Jerseyans seem to want Governor Christie to opt into the Medicaid expansion, despite the refusal of some other Republican governors to do so.”

Results are from a poll of 790 registered voters conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from Sep 27-30. The sample has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. Questions on health care issues were developed in consultation with The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC radio, and were sponsored by WNYC.

Overall support for Affordable Care Act hides partisan differences

While 57 percent of New Jersey voters support the ACA court decision, support is driven by the nearly 80 percent of Democrats who are pleased that the law was upheld. Reflecting their party’s consistent position on “Obamacare,” only 23 percent of Republicans support the Court’s decision, while 74 percent wanted the law struck down. Independents are more supportive than not, at 56 percent to 35 percent.

Support for the law is clearly tied to support for President Barack Obama. Among those who say they will vote for Obama, 82 percent are happy with the decision. But 74 percent of Romney voters wish the ACA had been struck down. Reflecting this, there are also strong racial divisions, with only 52 percent of white voters in favor of the ACA, compared to 77 percent of black voters.

Parents of children under 18 are slightly more supportive of the Supreme Court decision on the health care act than are other voters, at 60 percent. Young people – many of whom may be direct beneficiaries of the law – are for the most part supportive: 61 percent are pleased the law was upheld. But senior citizens are much less so, with only 46 percent happy with the decision, with an equal number wishing the law had been overturned.

Voters who trust government more on health care insurance are overwhelmingly supportive of the Court’s decision, at 80 percent, with only 15 percent preferring the Court had ruled the other way. But those who trust private insurance companies more see things differently: 60 percent wanted the law struck down, while only 34 percent wanted it upheld.

“To a great extent, the results suggest that partisan voters stick with their parties on this one,” noted Redlawsk. “Democrats trust government, and also want the law, while Republicans do not. At the same time, those with a personal interest in getting coverage – parents of children, and the young voters themselves – are more supportive, while those who see less positive outcomes are much less so. Seniors generally don’t see much direct benefit, and may be worried about Medicare cuts, leading to less support for the law.”

Little stomach for major Medicare change

A large majority of New Jersey voters does not want Medicare to change from the basic government insurance program that it is today. One-quarter support changing to a type of voucher system, where seniors would buy their own insurance, but 69 percent of New Jerseyans reject that idea. Even a majority of voters who say they trust private insurance companies more on health insurance want to retain the current Medicare system, while 85 percent of those trusting government support the current system against a voucher proposal.

Predictable partisan differences arise, but even so, 54 percent of Republicans reject payments to seniors to buy their own coverage. Democrats, not surprisingly, are broadly in favor of the current system: 82 percent want to leave it alone while 64 percent of independents agree. Yet, 52 percent of Romney supporters would leave the system alone, and 81 percent of Obama voters are in the same camp.

Age matters, though not as much as might be expected. Voters over 65, most of whom are on Medicare, are widely in favor of the current system, but even 58 percent of voters under 30 reject a voucher-style alternative.

“Medicare remains a potential third rail in American politics,” said Redlawsk. “And our results in New Jersey reflect that. While Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has talked of a plan allowing seniors to buy their own insurance with a government-provided stipend, even voters in his own party are not so sure they like the idea. Whether they like the federal government or not, most voters like one of its signature programs just the way it is.”

Despite Medicare support, voters dubious about government and health insurance decisions

More New Jersey voters trust private insurance companies than the government when it comes to matters related to health insurance, reflecting a somewhat contradictory position compared to widespread support for the premier government insurance program, Medicare. Divisions over the role of government mostly reflect standard partisan divisions in American politics. Independents (44 percent) and especially Republicans (76 percent) are much more trusting of private insurance companies than are Democrats (25 percent). But significant shares of voters say they do not trust either – about 1 in 7 members of both parties — and 20 percent of independents take this position.

These divisions carry through in predictable ways: while 51 percent of white voters favor private insurance companies, 57 percent of black voters say they trust government more on matters related to health insurance. Voters who support the Supreme Court decision on the ACA are also more likely to trust government, 49 percent versus 26 percent trusting private companies. And voters who oppose the decision are trusting of private companies by a 71 to 14 percent margin.

“People can often hold contradictory opinions,” said Redlawsk. “We all remember the ‘keep your government hands off my Medicare’ comments supposedly made in the early days of the debate over health care. The fact is, while voters are dubious about government decision-making, they are also quite supportive of programs from which they see or expect a direct benefit.”

Redlawsk also pointed out that much of the contradiction comes from Republican voters, who are strongly anti-government, but more supportive than not of Medicare.

Proposed Medicaid Expansion has support

Among the provisions of the health care law is the expansion of Medicaid, the health insurance program for low income Americans. A federal program, Medicaid is administered by the states, and states have some leeway in establishing eligibility. The ACA would expand eligibility to cover many more Americans with the federal government paying at least 90 percent of the cost. In its ruling the Supreme Court allowed states to opt out of the expansion without penalty. New Jersey has not yet announced its decision.

Voters in New Jersey, however, express clear support for Medicaid expansion in the state, with 57 percent in favor and 35 percent opposed. When voters opposed to expansion are told it has little cost to the state, 65 percent of them continue to oppose it, while 23 percent become supporters.

Support for Medicaid expansion decreases as income increases: 65 percent of voters with household incomes under $50,000 are in favor, while only 48 percent of those making $150,000 or more agree. Sharp partisan differences emerge, driven in part by dramatic differences between black and white voters, and by age. Half of whites support expansion, while 86 percent of black voters do. Voters under 30 are also strong supporters, at 73 percent, while only 49 percent of those over 65 agree. As a result, 79 percent of Democrats are in favor of expanding Medicaid, while only 15 percent are opposed. But among Republicans, only 30 percent support expansion, while 60 percent are against it. Independents are much more split: 51 percent support and 41 percent oppose Medicaid expansion.

Three-quarters of those who support the decision to uphold the ACA also want to see Medicaid expanded, while 61 percent of voters who wanted the law struck down also oppose expanding Medicaid.

“Support for Medicaid expansion is driven by the same partisan and self-interest dynamic we see in the other health care questions,” said Redlawsk. “Those who might benefit – lower income voters in particular – are much more supportive than those who would not. Likewise, senior citizens, who already have Medicare accessibility, are also less interested in expanding Medicaid. And of course Republicans oppose it and Democrats support it.”

Obama Lead Grows in NJ

For a PDF of the release with questions and tables, click here.

OBAMA WIDENS NEW JERSEY LEAD OVER ROMNEY IN LATEST RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. – On the eve of today’s first presidential debate, likely New Jersey voters give President Obama a 17-point lead over former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney – a three- point increase since August. According to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, 56 percent of New Jersey voters say they prefer Obama while 39 percent support Romney. Another 2 percent would like to see someone else, and only 4 percent are undecided.

Reflecting a national trend since the Democratic convention, voters have become slightly more positive about Obama over the past month: 56 percent now hold a favorable impression, up two points since August, while 39 percent view him unfavorably, unchanged over the past month. During the same time, voters have become increasingly negative about Romney. While 38 percent continue to view him favorably, 54 percent are now unfavorable, up five points from August.

The “economy and jobs” remains the most important election issue by far, named by 56 percent of voters. The president continues to be seen as better able to manage the economy with a 52 percent to 43 percent edge over the challenger. Many fewer voters (10 percent) pick the federal budget deficit as most important, followed by education at 9 percent and “Social Security and Medicare” at 6 percent. Romney holds nearly a 3 to 1 edge (66 percent to 23 percent) among voters who name the budget as the most important issue.

“This poll reflects recent national trends,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. “Romney’s missteps on Libya and his ’47 percent’ comments may have had effects, though he was already well behind here. We’ve also seen a pickup in voters who say they are Democrats, which is reflected in the poll’s partisan makeup. More people calling themselves Democrats means higher Obama numbers.”

Results are from a poll of 790 registered voters conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from September 27-30. Within this sample, 645 respondents are identified as likely voters and are the subjects of this release. The likely voter sample has a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.

Obama increases large lead

President Obama’s increased lead is due to several factors. Voters have become more likely to self-identify as Democrats, 95 percent of whom now support Obama. Romney, too, has solidified support among his party, as 94 percent of Republicans are now in his camp, up 11 points since August. Undecided voters and those wishing for another choice have dropped by half, as only 6 percent of likely voters cannot choose between the challenger and incumbent, with the president gaining a larger share of formerly undecided voters.

Most importantly, men have become more supportive of Obama. He now leads among men, 53 percent to 42 percent, compared to a 45 percent to 42 percent lead a month ago. Women remain stronger supporters, with 58 percent for Obama, and 36 percent for Romney, but the previously wide gender gap has closed considerably in recent weeks.

More independents are supporting Obama than when last polled. Romney also gained among this group as fewer independents remain undecided. Obama now leads among independents, 47 percent to 39 percent, compared to 44 percent to 36 percent last month.

“The president’s improving numbers among men, combined with the fact that more younger voters, women and minority voters are entering the likely voter pool than last month, accounts for much of his gain in New Jersey,” said Redlawsk. “If groups that traditionally support the president are increasingly likely to vote, then his position in New Jersey is probably not at risk.”

White voters favor Romney by a mere 1 point, 47 percent to 46 percent. Nonwhite voters overwhelmingly prefer Obama and comprise nearly 30 percent of likely voters. The Republican holds a seven-point lead among Catholics and a five-point edge among likely voters 65 or older. In contrast, more than half of voters in all other age groups support Obama, with those ages 18 to 34 and 50 to 64 most likely to vote for him, at 63 percent and 62 percent respectively.

Regionally, voters in the shore and exurban counties of New Jersey are stronger Romney supporters, by 11 points 25 points, respectively. Urban, suburban and south Jersey voters are all strong for Obama, with urban voters overwhelming for the president.

Democratic ticket still more likeable

Likely voters are more positive about Obama personally, and more negative about Romney than a month ago. While 56 percent of all likely voters have a favorable impression of Obama, he does not do as well among independents (48 percent). Romney does slightly better among independents at 40 percent favorable, than he does overall (38 percent), a 4-point improvement among independents since August. Romney also receives a huge favorability boost from his own party – 90 percent of Republicans now have a favorable impression of him, compared to just 78 percent before the Republican National Convention. In comparison, 94 percent of Democrats like Obama, virtually unchanged over the past month.

“The Republican National Convention did at least one thing it was meant to do. It greatly improved Romney’s standing among his base voters and somewhat improving how independents perceive him,” said Redlawsk

Likely voters are generally less favorable toward Vice President Joe Biden than they are toward Obama: 49 percent have a favorable impression of Biden, with 39 percent unfavorable. Voters are slightly less negative toward Paul Ryan than they are toward Romney, though Ryan is still viewed unfavorably overall, 36 percent favorable to 48 percent unfavorable.

While the earlier gender gap has closed somewhat, women remain much less positive about Romney than do men while there is now no gender difference in feelings about Obama. Thirty-four percent of women feel favorable toward Romney, compared to 42 percent of men. But while women’s favorability toward Obama declined six points to 57 percent, men increased their rating by nine points to 56 percent favorable. Obama is now viewed as more likeable by both genders.

Changes in favorability among income groups shows some unexpected patterns in the face of Romney’s “47 percent” comments about those he does not believe will support him. The lowest income New Jersey voters, those with less than $50,000 in household income, have become somewhat more favorable toward Romney in the last month, increasing from 33 percent favorable (55 percent unfavorable) to 38 percent favorable (51 percent unfavorable). At the same time, those earning more than $150,000 show little change, barely moving from 44 percent favorable (48 percent unfavorable) to 43 percent favorable (50 percent unfavorable). Voters between these income groups have become significantly more unfavorable toward the Republican challenger.

“It does not look like Romney’s widely reported comments actually moved lower-income voters further away from him,” noted Redlawsk. “In fact, lowest-income group became slightly more likely to vote for Romney over the past month, rather than less likely. On the other hand, middle class voters with incomes between $50,000 and $150,000 are the ones who moved in Obama’s direction, while those who make more show relatively little change.”

Voters pick Obama to handle economy but Romney still deemed stronger leader

More than half of likely voters name the economy as their most important issue in the election – though this is down six points from August. Still, no other issue comes close to the
economy as most important to voters. Among voters who care most about the economy, 52 percent say Obama is the right candidate to handle the issue, while 43 percent say Romney would do the better job.

More voters (28 percent) say “strong leader” is the quality they want most in a presidential candidate; among these voters, Romney is preferred 61 percent to 35 percent, an increase for Romney of seven points since August. But the next two qualities – “cares about me” (19 percent choose this quality) and “shares my values” (17 percent) clearly play into Obama’s strengths, as voters who want those qualities strongly support Obama. The president wins on values, 67 percent to 31 percent, and overwhelms Romney on caring, 80 to 14 percent. While Obama support among voters choosing “cares about me” has changed little, “shares my values” voters have moved strongly into Obama’s column, up 18 points in the past month. These voters eliminate any advantage Romney has on leadership.

Interest in the election is high among most registered voters. Almost three-quarters (73 percent) report they are “very interested,” while 23 percent are “somewhat interested” and 4 percent are “not interested at all.” Among those who are deemed likely voters based on history, turnout intent, political interest, and campaign interest, an overwhelming 88 percent say they are “very interested” in this year’s presidential election.

“If there is an enthusiasm gap for Democrats, or at least compared to past elections, we’re not seeing it very clearly in New Jersey,” said Redlawsk. “At least among registered voters, interest is quite strong, and turnout appears likely to be similar to past presidential elections here.”

Menendez holds double-digit lead over Kyrillos; Education bond has strong support

Today we present the last of this series of releases on the 2012 election and political figures in New Jersey. As other polls are showing, U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez holds a double digit lead over State Sen. Joe Kyrillos, who is challenging him.  More interesting, voters also currently express strong support for the proposed $750 million education bond that will also be on the ballot. Most say they haven’t heard anything about it, but when presented with the question, they support it. Those few who have heard a lot are even more supportive.

Speaking of not hearing about something, Kyrillos’ biggest problem may be that so far NJ voters just don’t know who he is. Only 25 percent are willing to say they feel either favorable or unfavorable toward him, 75 percent venture no opinion. This may start changing now that he is on the air with television commercials. Once people do know who he is, he will still face the challenge of running in blue-state New Jersey. But at least then he’ll have a chance to make his case.

Full text of the release is below. For a PDF of the release, with questions and tables, click here.

SEN. MENENDEZ, EDUCATION BOND ISSUE EARLY FAVORITES IN RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J -Incumbent Sen. Robert Menendez holds a 12-point lead over NJ State Sen. Joe Kyrillos among likely voters in the race for the U.S. Senate, 47 percent to 35 percent according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Ten percent are unsure and 8 percent say they would prefer “someone else.” Kyrillos remains virtually unknown to most voters two months before Election Day; three-quarters say they have no opinion or don’t know him while 15 percent have a favorable impression and 10 percent are unfavorable. Menendez, on the other hand, is viewed favorably by 40 percent and unfavorably by 28 percent. Twenty-six percent are unsure and 7 percent don’t know who he is.

“Senator Kyrillos is fighting an uphill battle for attention against a well-funded incumbent in a blue state,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. “His first TV ads started right after we polled, so the lack of awareness is not overly surprising. Still, he has a long way to go to get voters’ attention.”

New Jersey voters will also weigh in on a $750 million education bond to be used for new academic buildings and technological upgrades at colleges and universities. Likely voters approve of the measure 56 percent to 27 opposed; the remainder is unsure.

Results are from a poll of 916 registered voters conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from Aug 23 – 25, just prior to the party conventions. Within this sample, 688 respondents are identified as likely voters in the U.S. Senate election and are the subjects of this release. The likely voter sample has a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.

Kyrillos unknown by many, including supporters

In the Senate race, Kyrillos faces a likeability deficit, largely because few know enough to render an opinion, even within his Republican and conservative bases. While 62 percent of Democrats like Menendez, only 22 percent of Republicans feel similarly toward Kyrillos. About a quarter admit they do not know the candidate and almost half (48 percent) have no opinion. Kyrillos’ favorability is two points higher with core conservatives (24 percent), but even among these voters, 66 percent are either unsure or unaware of him.

Perhaps providing an opening for the challenger, coveted likely independent voters are split in their assessment of Menendez; 36 percent are favorable, while 32 percent are unfavorable. Only 6 percent say they don’t know him, and another quarter offer no opinion. But, Kyrillos’ own numbers lag with this group as well; 77 percent of independents have no opinion of him.

Head-to-head, 88 percent of Democrats back Menendez and 76 percent of Republicans back Kyrillos despite weak recognition within his own party. This 12-point gap is significant for Menendez, especially since independents lean toward the incumbent, 39 percent to 34 percent.

“As we noted earlier this year, Kyrillos’ biggest challenge is simply getting known,” said Redlawsk. “While Menendez’s favorability has improved, Kyrillos has been stuck. Independents are not sold on Menendez, so Kyrillos may have an opportunity, especially if he can improve his base support.”

The candidates are in a dead heat among men, at 41 percent each, while women overwhelmingly support Menendez, 53 percent to 28 percent. Kyrillos has a small edge, within the margin of error, among white voters (by 6 points), Catholics (3 points), exurban voters (5 points), and those “falling behind” in their personal finances (3 points.) Partially reflecting his residence in Monmouth County, likely voters in shore counties support Kyrillos, 55 percent to 30 percent. He also leads by 12 points among voters who say the state is going in the right direction.

Menendez holds strong leads in traditional Democratic urban and south Jersey counties and among those who say the state is on the wrong track. He also holds large leads among those with the least and the most education.

Few have heard about education bond issue

Two months before the election, 55 percent of likely voters have heard nothing about the proposed $750 million higher education bond. Another 37 percent say they have heard “only a little,” while 8 percent have heard a “lot.” Despite lacking information, 56 percent say they will vote for the bond, while about a quarter will not. In a February Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, during early discussion of the issue, only 48 percent of registered voters supported the proposal, while 45 percent oppose it.

Support for the bond increases with awareness, Redlawsk said. Two-thirds of those who have heard “a lot” will support it, compared to just over half of those who have heard nothing.

“One reason for increased support is that originally, the talk was about a bond for more than $1 billion,” said Redlawsk. “Keeping it below that level seems important and even though voters with little information seem willing to buy in, the more they hear, the better they like it.”

Support is strongest among likely Democratic voters (72 percent support), while 47 percent of independents and 42 percent of Republicans say they will vote for the measure.

Support increases with the level of voter education. Fifty-nine percent of those with post-graduate level education are in support, compared to half of those with a high school degree or less. Support decreases with age: 75 percent of voters under 30 favor the bond, while only 49 percent of those 65 and over agree. Black voters (74 percent) are much more likely than whites (51 percent) to say they will vote for the bond issue, but across all demographic groups, support outpaces opposition. Regionally, only voters living in the shore counties are dubious: the bond issue is essentially tied there, 41 percent in favor to 42 percent against.

FEW AGREE NEW JERSEY COMEBACK UNDER WAY

Well, after our little segue into tattoos (which got the most hits of anything we’ve ever done!) we’re back to the politics of New Jersey. We are continuing to release results of our Aug 23-25 Rutgers-Eagleton Poll of registered voters in New Jersey. Today we look at Gov. Christie’s claims about a New Jersey Comeback, and whether voters here believe that it is under way. Most do not. But even so, more think the state is headed in the right direction than think it is off on the wrong track, and Christie’s favorability ratings are holding up. It adds up to an evenly split electorate – probably no surprise to anyone – we ask for the first time whether Gov. Christie deserves to be re-elected. Of course, a question like that with no specific opponent, asked 15 months before the election, is hardly determinative. But it is interesting to see where things are at this early stage in the next election cycle.

Text of the release is below. Click here for a PDF with the text, questions, and tables.

FEW AGREE NEW JERSEY COMEBACK UNDER WAY
Rutgers-Eagleton Poll respondents split on second term for governor

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – Despite Gov. Chris Christie’s ongoing efforts to trumpet a “New Jersey Comeback,” few New Jersey voters believe the rhetoric. An overwhelming 63 percent say Christie is overstating things, while only 29 percent agree a comeback is under way. More than half of Republicans (56 percent) believe the comeback has begun, about twice the number of independents (29 percent). Only 12 percent of Democrats are on board with the governor.

Despite disagreement over a comeback, nearly half of registered voters (48 percent) say the state is going in the right direction, while 41 percent say it is on the wrong track.

As for Christie, voters are evenly split as to whether he deserves a second term: 47 percent are ready to re-elect Christie, 46 percent say it is time for someone new, and 8 percent are unsure. As previously reported, Christie is viewed favorably by 49 percent, and unfavorably by 40 percent of registered voters. His job performance gets an A or B from 45 percent of voters.

“Overall, the numbers are a mixed bag for Governor Christie,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. “Most voters don’t feel like a comeback has begun, although Christie is not taking any hit for proclaiming it. His favorable rating hasn’t moved since June, and more voters think the state is going in the right direction than don’t. While the number ready to re-elect him is less than a majority, it’s not particularly weak at this point.”

Results are from a poll of 916 registered voters conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from Aug 23 – 25. The poll was conducted before Gov. Christie gave the Republican National Convention keynote address and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.

Most say no to a New Jersey Comeback

While Christie touted the state’s comeback regularly over the summer, about a third of registered voters say they have heard nothing about it; 45 percent have heard a little and only 22 percent have heard a lot. The message may be resonating with those who have heard a lot: 40 percent of these voters believe it is happening, compared to 33 percent of those who have heard just a little, and a mere 17 percent of those who have not heard anything about the governor’s claim.

While a third of all voters believe that Christie’s New Jersey comeback has really begun, a majority (56 percent) of Republicans are on his side, though 35 percent say it has not yet begun. Independents are dubious: 62 percent say Christie is overstating things, while only 29 percent support him. Democrats simply dismiss Christie’s claims: 83 percent say it has not happened yet.

Women, who hold a more negative view of Christie than men, are less likely to believe in a New Jersey comeback, 26 percent to 34 percent.

“Liking the governor is no guarantee of agreeing with him on whether the comeback has begun,” said Redlawsk. “Even Republicans are more likely give Christie good grades than agree that a comeback is already under way. But they may be giving him credit for trying even if they don’t think he’s succeeded yet.”

Voters who feel their personal finances are improving (13 percent of all voters) are also most likely to say the New Jersey comeback is under way, but even here less than 40 percent take Christie’s position. Among the large majority of voters who are just “holding steady” only 29 percent think there is a comeback; 24 percent of those whose finances are “falling behind” (18 percent of all voters) agree.

“How we feel about politicians affects how we view their messages,” noted Redlawsk. “But personal experience also plays a role. Whether or not they like Christie, those whose personal finances are improving see are more likely to feel the state is coming back. But those who see little or no improvement in their own lives are much more likely to discount the Governor’s message, no matter how they feel about him otherwise.”

To re-elect or not to re-elect, that is the question

Forty-seven percent of voters want a second term for Christie and 46 percent do not. Two-of-three Democrats are itching for change and about one-in-five would give him a second term. Eleven percent are unsure. Eighty percent of GOP backers are ready to sign on again, but 14 percent are not.

Among independents, who may hold the balance in next year’s election, 49 percent favor a second term for Christie and 45 percent do not.

“Reflecting the strong feelings the governor generates, only 6 percent of independents don’t know where they stand 15 months before the election,” said Redlawsk. “Still, it is one thing to say no to a second Christie term against an unspecified opponent but it is another to have to choose an alternative. With a nearly 50 percent ‘re-elect’ in a Democratic state, Christie is not in bad shape in the early going.”

According to the poll, Christie’s weakest demographic groups include voters under 30 (35 percent would re-elect), those with household incomes under $50,000 (37 percent), women (41 percent) and black voters (19 percent.) He wins among whites, senior citizens and men (all at 54 percent re-elect), and those with household incomes between $100,000 and $150,000 (60 percent.)

Among those who see their financial wellbeing improving, 54 percent want to give Christie a second term, but only about 45 percent of other voters agree. And reflecting partisan patterns statewide, Christie wins re-election in the suburbs (52 percent), exurban (50 percent), and shore counties (57 percent). In more Democratic strongholds of urban and south Jersey, he wins only 30 percent and 38 percent, respectively.

The state’s direction

The share of voters who say New Jersey is going in the right direction (48 percent) has fallen 3 points since early June; 41 percent believe the opposite. Independents’ positive feeling about the state’s direction fell six points to 47 percent. Their pessimism is up two points to 41 percent. Republicans are more positive than Democrats by a 75 percent to 32 percent margin.

Probing more deeply, those who think the state is going in the right direction are split on whether this is because things are changing for the better (52 percent) or things are just not getting worse (45 percent). Those who say New Jersey is off on the wrong track are much more negative, with 62 percent of these voters saying things are changing for the worse and only 34 percent saying things are just not getting better.

“Voters overall still are not very positive about New Jersey’s future,” said Redlawsk. “Only about a quarter think things are actually getting better, while 14 percent say they are getting worse. Most voters remain somewhere in the middle.”

The comeback’s doubters are not overwhelmingly negative about the state’s direction: 56 percent think the state’s condition has remains unchanged, 21 percent believe it has worsened. Sixty-one percent of comeback supporters believe things are better and 30 percent see no change.

Christie’s ratings show little change

Since the June poll, Christie favorability has dropped 1 point to 49 percent with 40 percent unfavorable. Some change has occurred among independents, however, where favorable ratings have declined 7 points to 48 percent and unfavorable ratings increased 8 points to 40 percent. Most of this change was offset by increasingly positive ratings from GOP voters, up 5 points to 84 percent favorable.

Despite declining favorability, independents are still very positive about Christie’s job performance: 48 percent award an A or B and 15 percent fail him. Democrats are much more negative: only 20 percent grade him an A or B while 23 percent award him an F. The vast majority of Republicans see things differently, with 74 percent saying Christie is doing A or B work, and only 4 percent saying he should fail.

For the most part, stability defines voters’ feelings about Christie. Over the course of his administration, the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll has tracked Christie’s favorability rating between 44 and 50 percent, with unfavorable ratings ranging between 37 and 47 percent.

“This poll begins to clarify where Christie stands as we head toward the 2013 gubernatorial election,” said Redlawsk. “If it were today, I’d predict a close win for Christie, though his actual opponent will certainly matter. But enough New Jerseyans continue to like him and award good grades, even if they are not buying into the New Jersey Comeback. They may believe the comeback is not too far down the road and at least things are no longer getting worse.”