Superstorm Sandy and Global Climate Change Beliefs

Full text of today’s release follows. Click here for a PDF of the text with all tables and questions.

SANDY’S LEGACY: CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL FOR NEW JERSEYANS, RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL FINDS

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. – Following two years of storms like Hurricanes Irene and Sandy, and the 2011 Halloween blizzard, nearly two-thirds of New Jerseyans see global climate change as the likely culprit, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Only 29 percent see the storms as isolated weather events. A majority says they are more likely to believe in global climate change as a result of the storms that hit New Jersey in 2011 and 2012.

Nearly half believe it is at least somewhat likely that global climate change will cause another natural disaster like Sandy in their own community within the next year, while 47 percent disagree. But three-quarters of Garden Staters say it is at least somewhat likely climate change will cause a natural disaster somewhere in the U.S. during that time, while only 20 percent consider it unlikely.

Residents also overwhelmingly expect that consumer costs will rise due to disasters from climate change, and they believe the federal government will have to spend more for recovery from storms made worse by global climate change.

Across all of the questions asked, those not affected by Sandy were not significantly different in their responses from those who were.

“The disaster trifecta New Jersey faced in 2011 and 2012 has residents feeling gloomy about weather prospects for the future, even if Sandy did not hit them directly,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers. “Even those who don’t expect their own community to suffer again this year think climate change all but ensures another calamity somewhere in the country.”

Results are from a poll of 923 New Jersey adults conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from April 3-7. The margin of error is +/-3.2 percentage points.

Sharp partisan divide on climate change

The effects of recent weather disasters has large numbers of Democrats and independents convinced that climate change is to blame, but Republicans generally maintain that the storms are isolated events. More than 80 percent of Democrats see climate change causing recent disasters, as do 60 percent of independents. But only about 33 percent of Republicans agree, while 61 percent think the storms were not climate change driven.

While about a third of Republicans say the storms have made them more likely to believe in global climate change, a clear majority of GOP backers say their opinion remains unchanged, despite the storms. But two-thirds of Democrats say they are more likely to believe in climate change now, as do half of independents.

“Global climate change remains a contentious political issue, regardless of the apparent effects or the scientific data,” noted Redlawsk. “New Jersey’s Republicans, like Republicans nationally, do not view changing weather patterns as a result of global climate change. The gulf between them and Democrats remains as wide as ever.”

Women are nine points more likely than men to believe storms like Irene and Sandy result from climate change (69 percent to 60 percent). South Jersey and shore county residents (55 percent and 57 percent, respectively) are less likely to see these storms as due to climate change. About seven-in-10 urban and suburban residents think differently.

Nearly three-quarters of those who blame recent storms on climate change also say those storms made them more likely to believe climate change is real. The same percentage of residents who see Sandy and Irene as isolated weather events say there has been no change in their views on climate change. Women are 11 points more likely than men to say the storms made them believe in climate change. Regionally, 63 percent of suburban residents say they are more likely to believe climate change post-Sandy, while only 39 percent of those in the exurban counties of northwestern New Jersey feel the same.

Most expect more climate change-driven storms

While about half of respondents think it is at least somewhat likely that a global climate change-caused disaster will hit their community in the next year, only 19 percent think it is very likely. But a majority thinks it is very likely that a natural disaster caused by climate change will strike somewhere in the United States. An additional 25 percent says such a disaster is somewhat likely, meaning more than 75 percent sees some chance of another Sandy-like disaster in the U.S. in the near future.

“Residents do not think Sandy is the end of it, as far as New Jersey or the country is concerned,” said Redlawsk. “Given the belief of most residents that climate change is responsible for Sandy, Garden Staters are realistic about the chances of it happening again, here or elsewhere.”

As with belief that climate change drove Sandy, partisanship again divides opinions. Twenty-eight percent of Democrats say another Sandy-like storm driven by climate change is likely to strike their own community in the next year; only 9 percent of Republicans feel likewise. About twice as many Democrats as Republicans think such a storm is very likely in the U.S. in the near term.

“It is not surprising that Republicans, who don’t think recent storms were driven by climate change, are unlikely to think it will cause future storms,” said Redlawsk. “But clearly, most other New Jerseyans do see a role for global climate change.”

Those personally affected by Sandy are six points more likely than those who were not to say a climate change-driven natural disaster is very likely in their own community in the next year, but this difference vanishes when asked about the country as a whole. More millennials (those under 30) say a disaster in the next year is very likely either near them (39 percent) or somewhere in the U.S. (55 percent) than are other residents.

More disasters, more cost

Residents overwhelmingly believe that both the federal government and individuals will have to pay more due to consequences of climate change. Eighty-two percent say it is at least somewhat likely that the federal government will be required to increase disaster funding, and 8 in 10 also think it is at least somewhat likely they will personally have to pay more for consumer goods and services due to the impact of climate change on businesses in the next year.

Those more likely to believe in climate change post-Sandy are also more likely to believe that government funding will need to be increased – 72 percent say very likely. Likewise, three-quarters of those who believe recent storms have been caused by climate change feel the same, compared to only 30 percent of those who say the storms are isolated events.

Democrats are more than twice as likely as Republicans (74 percent to 34 percent) to say it is very likely federal disaster funding will need to increase; 53 percent of independents feel the same.  More women (63 percent), those 18 to 29 (67 percent) and urban residents (67 percent) say it is very likely that federal costs will increase due to natural disasters caused by climate change.

Democrats are also much more likely than Republicans to expect financial costs of climate change to affect them personally. Sixty-two percent of Democrats say increased costs for goods and services due to climate change are very likely compared to 51 percent of independents and 43 percent of Republicans.

NJ Residents Expect Return to “Normal” to Take a While

Today we have some additional questions on Sandy recovery from our latest poll. We look at the recovery effort, and in particular, measures that should be taken in dealing with storm damaged areas. Most NJ residents expect recovery will take a while – few think we’ll be done in the next year.

Full test of the release follows. Click here for a PDF of the release with questions and tables.

MOST NEW JERSEYANS SAY RETURN TO ‘NORMAL’ FOLLOWING SANDY WILL TAKE YEARS
Rutgers-Eagleton Poll finds nearly all support changes to flood-prone areas

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. – Nearly three-quarters of New Jerseyans say life is not yet “back to normal” after Superstorm Sandy, and most of those think it will be years before that happens, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. While 15 percent of those who say normalcy has not returned are optimistic that it will return within one year, 64 percent see a one to five year horizon before the state returns to pre-Sandy conditions. Nearly 20 percent are more pessimistic: 11 percent think a return to normal will take five to 10 years, 2 percent see it taking more than a decade and 7 percent say the state will never get back to normal.

As New Jersey begins to address concerns about the future of coastal areas prone to storm-surge flooding, large majorities of residents support a range of preventative measures proposed to limit future damage.

Nearly 90 percent either strongly or somewhat favor the mandatory use of pilings to elevate buildings in flood-prone areas and requiring the building of sand dunes or seawalls. More than 80 percent want to encourage rebuilding of homes and businesses further from the waterfront. About 70 percent are at least somewhat supportive of converting formerly developed land into public beaches, parks or wetlands and nearly the same percentage supports using public funds to replenish sand and create wider beaches.

New Jerseyans are all but evenly split – 48 percent favoring, 47 percent opposing – on whether shorefront development should simply be repaired to its pre-Sandy state without significant changes. Just over half give some support to abandoning parts of waterfront towns if repairs are seen to cost “too much in government funds,” but others would rebuild regardless of cost.

“Most residents recognize Sandy recovery is a long-term process, and know it will be quite some time before we have recovered,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers. “In addition they support efforts to ensure damage of this magnitude is less likely in the future, even if it means implementing such costly measures as dune construction and elevated buildings.”

Results are from a poll of 923 New Jersey adults conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from April 3-7. The margin of error is +/-3.2 percentage points.

Impact of Sandy not going away soon

About half the state’s residents were personally affected by the storm and its aftermath: 10 percent seriously, 39 percent moderately and 51 percent a little. Sixty-three percent in northwest exurban counties and 59 percent in shore counties were personally affected. Only 22 percent of south Jersey/Philadelphia area residents say they were affected by Sandy. More than half of urban and suburban residents say they felt Sandy’s impact personally.

Seventy-four percent say the state is not back to normal post-Sandy, while 21 percent say it is, and 5 percent are unsure. Those personally affected by the storm are five points more likely to say life is not yet back to normal (76 percent to 71 percent). Not surprisingly, those in the hardest hit exurban (78 percent) and shore regions (83 percent) are most likely to think things are not back to normal compared to other areas of the state.

While more than 20 percent of residents believe New Jersey has returned to normalcy, the rest are not overly optimistic about how long it will take to recover, and see rebuilding taking from one to five years. Younger residents are more optimistic: those under age 30 are three times more likely to think things are already back to normal, compared to those 50 and over. Among younger residents who still think the state is not back to normal, nearly 20 percent think a return to normalcy will happen within the next year, compared to only 11 percent of senior citizens.

Lower- income residents are also more optimistic; nearly a quarter say recovery will take less than a year. But only 5 percent of those with the highest incomes agree.

“For the most part, New Jerseyans seem realistic about the challenges facing the state,” said Redlawsk. “While some see things as already back to normal, most recognize the recovery effort is a long-term event. While people hope it will all go well, they recognize it’s a long slog.”

Support for strong precautionary measures in flood zones

Given an assortment of proposals for rebuilding areas most prone to storm-surge flooding, most New Jerseyans support a range of precautionary actions, but fewer support abandoning the land or leaving it unchanged. Sixty-four percent strongly support building sand dunes or seawalls, and another 23 percent offer some support. Those personally affected by Sandy are about seven points more likely than others to strongly support requiring dunes and seawalls.

Seven in 10 residents with incomes under $50,000 strongly support this proposal, compared to 57 percent with incomes over $150,000. Even 61 percent of shore resident strongly support dunes and seawalls, though support is even greater in other parts of the state, except for exurban counties where it drops to 57 percent.

Similarly, across the state, 64 percent strongly and 23 percent somewhat support elevating buildings on pilings to lessen future flood damage. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to strongly support this preventive measure, 71 percent to 58 percent. Lower-income and younger residents also are stronger supporters than others on average.

Fewer residents, 57 percent, strongly support moving development further from the waterfront, while another 27 percent somewhat support it. Democrats are once again more likely to strongly support this option (61 percent), as are seniors (72 percent), those in the lowest income bracket (64 percent) and those living in suburban and exurban areas (both at 62 percent).

In contrast, plans that include either abandonment or takeover of property or weaker precautionary measures are not viewed as favorably. Only 36 percent strongly support converting formerly developed land into public open spaces, while 35 percent offer some support. Men are much more likely to offer strong support for this plan than women (43 percent to 29 percent). Residents of exurban counties (46 percent) are the strongest supporters in the state.

Thirty-seven percent strongly support, and 34 percent somewhat support, simply replenishing and widening beaches as a precautionary measure. Residents personally affected by Sandy (42 percent versus 22 percent not affected) and those who live in shore counties (47 percent) are more likely to strongly support this proposal.

Residents show the least support for proposals to abandon parts of a waterfront town if repairs cost too much government money, or to simply rebuild as things were. Thirty percent strongly support and 25 percent somewhat support abandoning damaged properties altogether if repair costs will be too high. Older residents are more likely to strongly support this approach (38 percent), as are men (39 percent). Only 20 percent of urban residents strongly favor this option, but 34 percent of shore and suburban residents are strong supporters.

Only 24 percent strongly support and another 24 percent somewhat support returning damaged areas to their pre-Sandy condition with no significant changes. Those not affected by Sandy are five points more likely than those who were affected to strongly support this proposal, but the proposal, nevertheless, gets limited support compared to other options.

Looking at NJ and NY on Sandy rebuilding

Today we’re starting to look some more at the aftermath of Hurricane (Superstorm) Sandy. We worked with the Siena Resesarch Institute on a joint effort to understand how residents of both NY and NJ react to two proposals put forward on Sandy recovery. One, primarily espoused by NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo, is to buy out storm damaged properties, raze the buildings, and make them permanent open space. The other, which NJ Gov. Chris Christie initially supported in February of this year, is to pay residents $10,000 to remain in place, and to rebuild where they are. The idea of this was to ensure that the Jersey Shore, in particular, remains the attraction it has always been. Since February however, Christie has also suggested putting federal funds to buyouts, so in some sense he has supported both approaches.

As it turns out, NY residents pretty clearly support the original Christie approach – rebuild in place. NJ residents, however, are evenly split, with 43% supporting buyouts and 43% supporting rebuilding in place. An interesting difference.

Details are in the text below. Click here for a PDF of the release with Tables and Questions.

NY  Says, “Give Sandy Victims $10K to Rebuild”, 48% to 33%; But NJ  Split: 43% Prefer Tear Down

 Loudonville, NY & New Brunswick, NJ – A 15-point plurality of New Yorkers (48% to 33%) would rather see some of the federal money being allocated to the state for Sandy relief used to provide homeowners with $10,000 to rebuild rather than to have damaged properties bought from willing owners, torn down and turned into open space.

In New Jersey, voters are evenly divided with 43 percent preferring using federal relief to buy damaged properties and turn them into open space while an identical percentage favors partially funding victims rebuilding as long as they stay where they are for at least two years.

Results are from the Siena College (SRI) and Rutgers-Eagleton polls based upon responses the two centers separately garnered from respondents in the two states.

“Jersey Shore residents are just as evenly split as most of the state on the best way to use these Sandy relief funds,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. “But those living in the northwest exurban counties do have a preference: there 56 percent prefer buying damaged properties and tearing them down. Garden Staters under 30 strongly support rebuilding, while middle-aged and older residents strongly support buyouts.  New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s popularity does not seem to make any difference, perhaps because while he initially focused entirely on rebuilding, more recently he has also supported using federal funds for buyouts. ”

“In New York, every demographic group, Republicans, Democrats, New York City residents, Suburban and especially Upstaters, would rather see the money go to support committed homeowners rebuild than to tear down the properties and turn them into public lands despite New York’s popular Governor, Andrew Cuomo, having expressed support for buying, tearing down and making public the damaged and threatened properties,” according to Dr. Don Levy, SRI’s Director.

Latest on Gov. Chris Christie’s Ratings

Today we begin our next series of press releases from the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. The latest poll was in the field from April 3-7, and has a total of 923 NJ adult respondents, along with 819 registered voters. Our first focus is on our governor. We continue to see very high ratings for Gov. Christie both in terms of his favorability and his job performance.  But, five months after Hurricane Sandy we also see our first significant downward tick in his ratings. It appears most of it is due to Democrats who are starting to moderate their opinion of the governor. As we would expect, before Sandy Democrats on the whole were quite negative. Since Sandy hit, they have been uncharacteristically positive. Now we see that softening a bit. But, at the same time Christie’s support is holding up well with independents, and of course Republicans are solidly in his camp as they mostly were before the storm.

This time around we gave voters a chance to tell us in their own words why they are favorable or unfavorable toward Christie. Hurricane Sandy is a big reason for his support, especially for Democrats. Interestingly, virtually no Republicans named Sandy as their reason for liking Christie. On the other hand, for those who feel unfavorable, we find words like “bully” and reactions to his education reforms and battles with the teachers’ union leading the way.

The text of the release follows. Click here for a PDF with the full release text, along with questions and tables.

FIVE MONTHS AFTER SANDY CHRISTIE STILL GOING STRONG,
 BUT RATINGS SHOW SOME SLIPPAGE, RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL FINDS

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – Five months after Hurricane Sandy, New Jersey voters continue to give Gov. Chris Christie high marks for his job performance, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. However, weak spots have emerged and in general, Christie’s ratings have dropped slightly since February.

While overwhelmingly approving (87 percent) Christie’s post-Sandy recovery efforts, only 42 percent of voters approve of his handling of New Jersey’s economy and jobs and only 37 percent approve of his tax policy. About 50 percent approve of Christie’s efforts on education, the budget, and crime.

Christie’s work on Sandy recovery drives up his general approval ratings despite unhappiness about economic issues: 68 percent approve his overall job performance, 64 percent have a favorable impression, and 60 percent grade Christie A or B.

Polling has shown Christie all but invincible in the gubernatorial race, but there is some evidence his ratings are coming down from his record highs. Overall job performance is down five points and favorability is down six points from a February Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Christie’s approval on both the economy and taxes has fallen three points.

“Christie still has ratings any governor would love, but all-time highs generally come back toward earth over time,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. “With Sandy recovery helping drive overall approval and voters all but ecstatic at his efforts there, Christie remains in great political shape.”

Results are from a poll of 923 New Jersey adults conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from April 3-7. A subsample of 819 registered voters reported on here has a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.

Christie’s “character”

Twenty-six percent of voters maintain an unfavorable impression of Christie, up 6 points from February, while 64 percent of voters have a favorable impression. Democrats are most responsible for the overall decline, showing a 14-point drop to 45 percent. Independents (71 percent favorable) and Republicans (90 percent) show no significant change.

Favorability among men declined from 74 percent in February to 65 percent, while women’s admiration decreased by four points to 62 percent. Christie continues to receive very high favorability ratings from areas hardest hit by Sandy – northwest exurban (72 percent) and shore (75 percent) counties.

Among those viewing the governor favorably, one quarter use a range of character terms such as honest, integrity, and frankness to explain why they like him. Many mention how Christie “speaks his mind,” is a “straight shooter,” and “sticks to his beliefs.” But the single most named reason (18 percent) for liking Christie is his post-Sandy recovery work. Another 10 percent mention his governing and policy decisions.

Word Cloud for “In just a word or two can you tell me why you have a favorable impression of Gov. Christie?” Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, April 3-7, 2013

Among the 26 percent who dislike Christie, 30 percent name similar traits as supporters: but they question his character, honesty, and integrity, with many calling him a bully. The single most often named issue focuses on teachers and education (18 percent). Sixteen percent say Christie is uncaring, has the wrong priorities and is hurting the state and its citizens, and 10 percent cite his handling of such economic matters as the budget, taxes and fiscal responsibility.

Word Cloud for “In just a word or two can you tell me why you have an unfavorable impression of Gov. Christie?” Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, April 3-7, 2013

Democratic Christie supporters are mostly driven by Sandy (35 percent) and by perceptions of the governor’s honesty and integrity (20 percent).  But only 3 percent of Republicans cite Sandy as their primary reason. For GOP voters, honesty and integrity drive support at 28 percent, followed by Christie’s leadership (14 percent) and policy positions (12 percent). Among independents, 27 percent name honesty as their top reason for liking Christie, followed by Sandy recovery work at 16 percent.

Democrats’ unfavorable views of the governor are driven mostly by dislike of his education policies (18 percent) and impressions of Christie as confrontational (14 percent). Another 14 percent believe the governor does not care about New Jersey’s citizens.

“Christie’s natural Republican constituency likes his attitude and policies and sees him as a strong leader,” said Redlawsk. “Sandy doesn’t matter much to them. But for Democrats, we see clear evidence that the Sandy recovery is critical to support and probably also contributes to their sense of his integrity and honesty. Without those Democrats, Christie’s ratings would be much closer to where they were before Sandy hit.”

Christie job approval still high but dropping among Democrats

Almost six-in-10 voters (58 percent) continue to think New Jersey is headed in the right direction. Just over one-in-three (35 percent) continue to say the state is on the wrong track. Even so, the respondents’ approval of Christie’s overall job performance has dropped five points to 68 percent, while disapproval has risen slightly to 26 percent.

Democrats are clearly responsible for the decline; their approval has dropped 11 points since February to 51 percent. Three-quarters of independents and 93 percent of Republicans remain steady in their approval.

“This decline among Democrats is not surprising as we enter an election season,” noted Redlawsk. “As long as independents are strongly on Christie’s side he will continue to draw very positive ratings. If they move away, things could get interesting.”

While strongly backing Christie’s response to Sandy, more voters disapprove than favor his performance on the economy and jobs, 49 percent to 42 percent. More men (46 percent) than women (39 percent) like Christie’s economic performance. His highest approval on the economy comes from the exurban (54 percent) and Jersey Shore (47 percent) regions of the state.

Voters’ views on taxes show a similar, but more negative pattern. Overall, just 37 percent approve of the job Christie is doing on taxes while 56 percent disapprove. Sixty percent of women disapprove of Christie’s handling of taxes, and men are now more likely to disapprove (51 percent) than approve (42 percent).

Approval of the governor’s performance on education, an area of strength in February, is now more tenuous; 49 percent approve (down five points) and 44 percent who disapprove (up five points). Christie does better on the state budget, with 50 percent approving and 41 percent disapproving of his performance – appraisals that have remained steady over the past two months. Voters are much more positive on crime: 55 percent approve and 29 percent disapprove of his performance on this issue.

Christie continues strong in Hurricane Sandy approval ratings – 87 percent approve compared to only 9 percent who disapprove and 4 percent who are unsure. He continues to gets high marks from many of his usual detractors: those who view him unfavorably (75 percent approval), Democrats (87 percent), women (87 percent), black voters (82 percent), Hispanic voters (87 percent) and public union households (87 percent).

When asked to grade Christie’s efforts, 21 percent award an A, while another 39 percent give a B. Democrats have become their most critical graders since Sandy – 43 percent grade him A or B,  down from 52 percent in February. Independents have held steady with 64 percent awarding A or B, while 88 percent of Republicans (the same percentage as in November 2012) assign top grades, an increase of 8 points. Christie continues to get his highest marks from storm-battered exurban and shore regions, though down six and seven points respectively from the last poll.

RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL: SANDY NOT SPOILING SHORE-GOERS’ PLANS

Revised 2/18/13 5:00pm to clarify lede.

Full text of today’s release follows. Click here for a PDF with text, questions, and tables.

RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL: SANDY NOT SPOILING SHORE – GOERS’ PLANS

 NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – Nearly all regular Jersey shore visitors plan to go “down the shore” this summer as usual, despite the havoc wreaked by Superstorm Sandy, according to a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Most – 64 percent – say they will spend about as much time as in summers past, while 13 percent say they will make longer stays. But 20 percent plan shorter visits, and in a few cases (2 percent) no visit at all. Just under two-thirds of the 22 percent who cut back say Sandy is the reason.

Besides those who live there, just under 60 percent of New Jerseyans typically visit the shore during summer, with most usually staying a week or less. Thirty-six percent are day-trippers, 21 percent visit  up to three days and another 19 percent stay between four and seven days. One-quarter of shore-goers spend more than a week, including 8 percent who spend the entire summer.

About 30 percent of visitors who stay four days to a week are planning to cut back. Only 5 percent of these visitors plan to spend more time. Among other visitors, the percentage planning to spend less time is mostly offset by those who plan to spend more.

“The summer tourist season seems surprisingly stable, though perhaps down slightly based on current plans,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers. “While some regulars will cut back due to Sandy, most expect to spend as much or more time than ever enjoying the Jersey shore. Even those cutting back are still more likely to visit than to stay away entirely.”

Atlantic City (11 percent) and Seaside Heights – home to MTV’s Jersey Shore – (10 percent)  are respondents’ top destinations, followed by Wildwood, Long Beach Island, Point Pleasant and Ocean City.

Results are from a poll of 796 adult New Jerseyans conducted statewide among landline and cell phone households from Jan. 30 – Feb. 3 with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

How long will visitors stay?

While Jersey Shore regulars are still planning a trip, visits may be shorter than usual. About 70 percent who normally stay more than a week still plan to visit that long, while 20 percent will make shorter stays and 7 percent are unsure of their plans. Only 2 percent of these long-term visitors will skip the shore completely. Of those who generally stay between 4 days and a week, 28 percent plan to spend fewer than four days and 3 percent have no plans to visit. But 10 percent expect to stay longer

More than half (54 percent) of short-term visitors (up to three days) plan to take their usual vacation. Twenty percent will stay longer and 22 percent will spend less time. Almost three in 10 regular day-trippers actually plan to spend more time at the shore this year.

“Taken together, the evidence suggests the typical visitors will spend less time, rather than more time at the shore, but not by much,” said Redlawsk. “In-state tourism might decline, but not as much as might be expected after Sandy. The lure of the Jersey Shore is strong, and most respondents do not plan to let the storm interfere with their regular summer vacation beach routines.”

Just under two-thirds of all visitors expecting to cut back cite Sandy as the reason for reducing their planned shore visits. Those personally affected by the storm are nearly twice as likely to spend less time at the beach this summer.

Residents who believe New Jersey has not returned to normal since Sandy are five points more likely to spend less time at the shore than those who think the state is back to its pre-Sandy condition (20 percent versus 15 percent). Likewise, those who favor coastline reassessments over immediate rebuilding for summer are nine points more likely to cut back on shore visits.

The who, what, where and when of the Jersey Shore

While most shore county residents either visit (54 percent) or live at the shore (30 percent), south Jersey/Philadelphia area residents are the next most likely to visit, at 64 percent. About 40 percent of New Jerseyans from other areas do not typically go to the beach.

Parents (70 percent) are much more likely to frequent New Jersey beaches than those without children (54 percent). The shore is also most popular among middle-aged groups: 65 percent of 30 to 49 year-olds visit, as do 62 percent of those 50 to 64. Only 55 percent of those 18 to 29 and 44 percent of those 65 and over visit. Garden Staters in the lowest income bracket are the least likely to be shore-goers (49 percent).

Day trips to the shore are most popular across the board. By a 2-to-1 margin, the childless are more likely than parents to stay the entire summer. While younger visitors are more likely to take shorter trips, older vacationers are more likely to stay longer. Well-to-do New Jerseyans are apt to take longer trips.

Atlantic City and Seaside Heights are most popular with shore visitors, followed by Wildwood, Long Beach Island (LBI), Point Pleasant and Ocean City. Urbanites (21 percent) and south Jerseyans (19 percent) are most likely to enjoy Atlantic City, but suburbanites favor LBI (12 percent).  Exurban residents choose Point Pleasant (10 percent), and those in shore counties who don’t live at the shore prefer Ocean City (9 percent).  Visiting parents are most likely to go to Atlantic City (15 percent) or Point Pleasant (10 percent), while those without children favor Seaside Heights (12 percent) and Wildwood (11 percent).

Atlantic City is most popular with those 65 and older (23 percent) and with household incomes under $50,000 (19 percent). Seaside Heights is most popular with the under-30 crowd (21 percent) and lowest income bracket (21 percent). Wildwood and LBI are most popular among the youngest age group and those 50 to 64, who also favor Point Pleasant. Ocean City is also a favorite destination for the oldest shore visitors.

A Post-Sandy Follow Up

The headline on today’s poll release should not surprise anyone in New Jersey – the vast major of Garden Staters – 74 percent – say life here is not back to normal after Superstorm Sandy, nearly four months ago. Moreover, most see it as a transformative event, and want rebuilding the shore to go slowly to give time to assess the implications of rebuilding. Not a lot else to say about the release itself; it is part of what we plan to be a regular effort to assess where things are after the storm, which began with a release on the impact of Sandy, and another on its political implications, back in November.

The text of today’s release follows. Click here for a PDF of the release text with all questions and tables.

LIFE IN NEW JERSEY NOT YET NORMAL AFTER SANDY, RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL FINDS

 NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – Nearly three-quarters of New Jerseyans say life is not yet back to normal almost four months after Superstorm Sandy, and 77 percent call the storm a “transformative event,” according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. A quarter of those personally affected by the storm report not having fully recovered, with more than 60 percent of those respondents reporting unrepaired damage to their home.

However, most New Jerseyans are not in a rush to repair damage at the shore; 62 percent say assessing potential for future damage should take precedence over rushing to rebuild before the summer tourist season. Almost eight in 10 (78 percent) want government to pay for repairs and rebuilding, although about half of these residents say property owners should share the cost. Seventeen percent want property owners to shoulder the entire burden.

“New Jersey will be dealing with the effects of Superstorm Sandy for years,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers. “Whether Sandy will prove transformative depends on how its effects influence decisions about rebuilding and future mitigation.”

Results are from a poll of 796 adult New Jerseyans conducted statewide among landline and cell phone households from Jan. 30 – Feb. 3 with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Government’s efforts earn good grades

Ninety-two percent of Garden Staters say Gov. Christie is handling Sandy recovery efforts at least “somewhat well”; 62 percent say “very well” though this top mark is down seven points from a November Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. President Obama doesn’t fare quite as well – 82 percent say his post-Sandy work is going at least somewhat well, but only 44 percent say his efforts are going very well, a 12-point drop since November.

Respondents continue to give generally positive marks to FEMA and the Red Cross, although both are clearly down since November. Twenty-five percent say FEMA has handled its duties very well, a 12-point dip since the last poll. The Red Cross has experienced a nine-point drop to 42 percent very well over the same period. About 12 percent of Garden Staters affected by the storm report using the services of any disaster-assistance agency, up just three points from November.

Local government also receives positive ratings on Sandy recovery. Thirty-nine percent say their local government is doing very well with recovery, while another 38 percent say somewhat well.

“New Jerseyans continue to feel that first responders and political leadership have done a good job handling Sandy and its aftermath,” said Redlawsk, “but some drop in sentiment from November is probably inevitable as the recovery continues. Few feel truly negative, however.”

Those personally affected by Sandy are five points more likely than those who were not to say the governor is handling recovery very well.  Even eight of 10 residents who don’t like Christie personally give him positive ratings on Sandy recovery. In a reversal of his typical support, more women (66 percent) than men (58 percent) are likely to say Christie as doing very well.

Although Obama also receives strong marks for his Sandy efforts, partisanship defines his support: 15 percent of his detractors say he has handled Sandy recovery very well.  Only 28 percent of Republicans, 41 percent of independents and 55 percent of Democrats give the president top marks. Like Christie, those directly affected by Sandy give Obama higher ratings than those who were not. Overall, though, majorities in every demographic group give both the governor and the president positive ratings.

Sandy’s impact and recovery

In an interesting anomaly, only 46 percent of respondents said they had been “personally” affected by Superstorm Sandy, a large decline from the two-thirds who said so in a poll taken in Sandy’s immediate aftermath. “It may simply be that for those least affected – perhaps losing power for a few hours, or having fallen trees blocking roads – the effects have faded from memory,” Redlawsk said. “It is likely that right after Sandy, even small inconveniences felt large. Months later, those who faced more significant disruptions are most likely to still say Sandy had personal impact.”

Fifty-one percent of shore residents say they were personally affected; the number rises to 62 percent in northwest exurban counties, while only 23 percent of South Jersey/Philadelphia area residents say they were affected by Sandy. Fifty-four percent of urban and 46 percent of suburban residents felt Sandy’s impact.

Almost three-quarters of New Jerseyans say the state is not back to normal, and women are 13 points more likely than men to feel this way (80 percent versus 67 percent). At least 80 percent of older residents feel the same.

Similarly, residents of the storm-battered exurban and shore areas, as well as women statewide are most likely to see Sandy as a transformative event (80 percent, 84 percent, and 82 percent respectively). Feelings about Sandy and its aftermath are not conditioned by personal experience.

Those personally affected by Sandy have the highest regard for FEMA: 28 percent say FEMA has done very well compared to 22 percent of those not personally impacted by the storm. But being directly affected by the superstorm does not influence beliefs about the performance of local government or the Red Cross. While one in eight residents used a disaster-assistance agency’s services, there is little reported difference in frequency of use by region.

Still, one-third of those affected reported property damage to their insurance companies, with residents of exurban and shore counties most likely to do so (39 and 41 percent, respectively). Most (72 percent) who contacted insurance companies have have received compensation for damages.

Residents in no rush to rebuild shore but want government to pay

More than six in 10 residents (62 percent) are cautious about rebuilding at the shore and believe assessments of the potential for future damage should be made before rebuilding, compared to the third who want to rebuild before the summer tourism season. Those personally affected by the storm are slightly less likely to want immediate action; 32 percent want to rebuild immediately while 37 percent of unaffected residents agree. Residents of Ocean, Monmouth, and Atlantic counties are more anxious than most to get started, with 39 percent supporting immediate rebuilding. Forty-two percent of those in south Jersey, including Cape May County, feel the same. New Jerseyans distant from the shore favor assessment first.

As for who foots the bill, 17 percent say that individuals should pay for their own property damage — but most expect government to pay, either alone (38 percent) or in combination with property owners (40 percent.)

Partisanship plays a major role in determining financial liability. Republicans and independents are twice as likely as Democrats to say property owners are responsible for the cost. Half of Democrats believe government alone should pay, versus 35 percent of independents and 26 percent of Republicans. Forty-seven percent of Republicans favor sharing costs between owners and government compared to 38 percent of independents and Democrats.

Of those who say only government should pay, almost half (48 percent) think it is the responsibility of the federal government, while 22 percent say the state should pay. One in five (21 percent) say payment should come from a combination of governmental levels and 9 percent say local government should bear the cost.

A new take on Gov. Christie’s ratings

Today we release our latest polling on our governor, Chris Christie. As has been the case for other statewide polls since Superstorm Sandy, Gov. Christie has sky-high ratings. For us, that means his favorability rating is at an all time high, as is his job performance rating. Among all statewide polls, Christie’s ratings are the highest ever for any elected governor; only former Gov. and State Sen. Richard Codey has rated as highly during his unelected term.

But we thought it would be useful to dig a little deeper, to look at how voters view the governor’s performance on a range of issues. So we asked approval of how Christie is doing on Sandy, the economy and jobs, taxes, education, crime and drugs, and the state budget. Except for the last of these, the list was also part of our “most important problem” question.

What we find is that Gov, Christie’s ratings on specific issues are generally lower than his overall rating, except for his handling of Sandy. In fact,  more voters disapprove of his performance on the economy and on taxes than approve. The apparent take away is that Gov. Christie’s exemplary handling of Sandy and its aftermath is what has driven his overall ratings into record territory, but positive ratings on Sandy do not trickle down to other issues. And, as it turns out, far more people say the economy and taxes are the most important problem facing the state than see Sandy in that light.

Text of the release is below. Click here for a PDF of the release with all questions and tables.

RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL: GOV. CHRISTIE RATINGS REMAIN SKY-HIGH, BUT APPROVAL ON HANDLING ECONOMY AND TAXES LOWER

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – Gov. Chris Christie continues to ride high from his handling of Superstorm Sandy, but a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll finds registered voters are less pleased with his performance on their No. 1 issue: jobs and the economy. While 73 percent of voters approve of Christie’s overall job performance, only 45 percent specifically approve his handling of the economy, which 35 percent of voters say is the most important problem facing New Jersey.

High taxes ranks second to jobs: 31 percent of voters call this the most important problem. Christie’s approval rating on taxes is even lower, at 40 percent. In contrast, 86 percent of voters approve of how the governor has handled Superstorm Sandy, but only 11 percent say the storm’s aftermath is the most important problem, making it a distant third on the list of problems.

“Governor Christie remains very popular across the board, with a 70 percent favorability rating and continuing sky-high overall job approval,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers. “It appears that Christie’s handling of Sandy has made the difference, since voters are not nearly as positive about other key issues. If voters begin to focus on these issues instead of the Sandy recovery, we could see a change in the governor’s overall ratings over the next few months.”

Results are from a poll of 796 New Jersey adults conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from Jan. 30 – Feb. 3. Within this sample is a subsample of 698 registered voters reported on here; this subsample has a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.

Overall approval of Christie remains at record highs

Among registered voters, Christie continues to get record high marks for an elected governor, with favorability at 70 percent, up three points since a November Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Only 20 percent say they feel unfavorable toward the governor, a drop of five points.

Democrats, in particular, have become more positive toward Christie with a jump of 10 points to 59 percent favorable. Independents and Republicans have remained relatively steady at 71 percent and 88 percent favorable, respectively.

After nearly closing in November, a gender gap in favorability has reopened, but only because men have become five points more favorable, to 74 percent, while women remain steady at 66 percent favorable.

“Favorability measures how people feel about Christie as a person, and is not specifically about job performance,” noted Redlawsk. “The governor continues to generate very good feelings among voters of all stripes.”

As for Christie’s job performance, 73 percent of voters say they approve overall, with only 23 percent disapproving. Even 62 percent of Democrats approve of how Christie is doing his job, as do three-quarters of independents and 90 percent of Republicans.

When respondents assign letter grades to his work, 24 percent award an A, while another 40 percent give a B. In November, 28 percent awarded A and 33 percent a B.

Both Democrats and independents have become more positive about Christie’s job performance. Christie’s standing improved five points with each, so 52 percent of Democrats and 66 of independents now give the governor an A or B. Republicans have become less pleased, however. Eighty percent – an 8 percent decrease since November – award an A or B. Christie continues to get his best grades from storm-battered exurban and shore regions (71 percent and 73 percent, give an A or B, respectively).

Opinions on the direction of the state have remained steady, with 60 percent of voters saying New Jersey is headed in the right direction and 33 percent saying it is on the wrong track.

Potential risk ahead for Christie

As the 2013 gubernatorial race gets under way, polling puts Christie well ahead of any Democratic opponent. But an analysis of his job performance suggests the possibility of a more competitive race over time. While voters feel very positive and give the governor high job marks, approval of Christie’s performance on some key issues is a different matter.

Among registered voters, 35 percent say the economy and jobs is the most important problem facing the state, while 31 percent say it is high taxes. These issues are followed by Hurricane Sandy recovery at 11 percent, education and schools at 10 percent, and crime and drugs at 8 percent.

Voters are split on Christie’s performance on the economy and jobs (45 percent approve, 46 percent disapprove). Just over half of those who name the economy and jobs as the top problem disapprove of the way the governor is handling it, while 43 percent approve.

Forty percent of independents and 37 percent of Democrats approve of Christie’s performance on the economy and jobs, compared to 69 percent of Republicans. More men than women (50 percent to 41 percent) approve of Christie’s economic performance, while his highest marks come from the exurban (47 percent) and suburban (54 percent) regions of the state.

Respondents’ views on taxes show a similar pattern. Overall, 40 percent approve of the job Christie is doing here, while 52 percent disapprove. Only one-third of those who call high taxes the most important problem approve of how Christie is handling the issue while 63 percent disapprove.

Majorities of Democrats (59 percent) and independents (58 percent) disapprove of the governor’s tax efforts, but 65 percent of Republicans approve. Fifty-seven percent of women disapprove of Christie’s handling of taxes. Men are evenly split at 47 percent pro and con.

“Two-thirds of voters say the economy or high taxes are the most important problems facing the state. And for the most part voters are not fans of Christie’s job performance in these areas. This suggests there is real risk for Christie if the effects of Sandy wear off over time,” said Redlawsk. “Campaigns tend to focus voters on the issues they care about most. Whether that happens over the next few months will be something to watch very carefully.”

Christie’s political strength lies both in his personal favorability rating and in nearly universal approval of how he has handled Superstorm Sandy. He gets high marks across the board for his job with Sandy recovery, including approval from many of his typical opponents: those unfavorable toward him (77 percent), Democrats (85 percent), women (86 percent), black voters (84 percent), Hispanic voters (80 percent) and public union households (87 percent).

The governor’s performance on education is another area of strength; 54 percent of New Jerseyans are positive, 39 percent are negative. Voters also are positive about Christie on crime: 51 percent approve and 30 percent disapprove of his performance on this issue.

Finally, the governor gets more positive than negative marks on the state budget, with 49 percent approving and 38 percent disapproving his performance. But in the end, voters see these issues as less critical than high taxes, a perpetual complaint of New Jerseyans, and the economy, which seems to be only slowly picking up steam.

Rutgers-Eagleton Poll Top results of 2012

OK, so it’s nearly the end of January, and everyone else has already done their greatest hits of 2012. Even so, we thought we’d take a quick look back at some of the more interesting findings. Aaron Hyndman, the undergraduate student who has been leading our social networking team, and Ashley Koning, graduate student and Rutgers-Eagleton Poll Manager, put together this retrospective.

So here is a look back at the top five Rutgers-Eagleton Poll moments of 2012 at ECPIP:

5) Wider support for same-sex marriage and immigration a reflection of greater social change.

As the New Jersey legislature once again addressed same-sex marriage in early 2012, with a subsequent controversy ensuing, more than half of New Jersey voters (54 percent) were in favor of legalizing same-sex marriage in the state.  But they wanted to vote on it. And around the time of President Obama’s executive order regarding the DREAM Act, June 2012 findings show mass bipartisan appeal for the measure providing opportunities for children of undocumented immigrants.  Eighty percent of New Jersey residents voiced support, mirroring national trends.

Press Releases: February 13, 2012, February 14, 2012, June 18, 2012

4) “Predicting” the 2012 Election.
From President Obama’s strong win in New Jersey by the same 17-point margin as shown in a late September Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, to the higher education bond passing with nearly the exact same percentage as our results showed more than a month prior, our late September polling was surprisingly accurate, reinforcing the idea that most NJ voters had made up their minds long before election day.  And in partnership with WNYC and The Brian Lehrer Show, we went even further into major issues by investigating New Jersey opinions on the Affordable Care Act, Medicare, and Medicaid (http://www.wnyc.org/shows/bl/2012/oct/10/wnycrutgers-eagleton-poll-results/).

Press Releases: October 3, 2012, October 5, 2012, October 10, 2012

3) A growing concern about gun violence and gun control in the wake of nationwide tragedies.
First polled in August after the Colorado, Wisconsin Sikh Temple, and Empire State Building Shootings, the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll found two-thirds of NJ voters very concerned with gun violence in America, 65 percent believing gun ownership was more important than gun owners’ rights, and nearly half agreeing that New Jersey gun laws should be made stricter.  Asked less than four months later in the wake of the unspeakable shooting tragedy at Sandy Hook Elementary School, the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll saw a dramatic shift in favor of gun control from August (up to 72 percent across all New Jerseyans and up to 57 percent specifically within gun-owning households).  More than three quarters of New Jerseyans were worried about gun violence – including six in ten gun owners – and virtually all believed it to be an important issue for the national agenda.

Press Release: September 12, 2012

2.) Jersey Strong in the face of the Superstorm – bipartisanship and the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy.
Superstorm Sandy was probably the most unprecedented, dramatic weather event in New Jersey’s history.  In the days before a national election, the Superstorm forced politics to be set aside so that leaders on both sides of the aisle could do everything in their power to provide aid to those suffering and help rebuild our region (and canceled our pre-election polling as well).  With two thirds of New Jerseyans affected by the storm, they praised this spirit of bipartisan cooperation by giving both President Obama and Governor Christie extraordinarily high marks in our November poll that chronicled Sandy’s aftermath.

Press Releases: November 20, 2012, November 21, 2012 

1.) The Untouchable Chris Christie and his soaring reelection and approval numbers heading into the 2013 race for governor.
Prior to Sandy, New Jersey voters were split on whether the governor should receive a second term or if it was time for someone new.  But Sandy changed all of that, and Governor Christie took a commanding lead in our November poll – both in general and by double-digit margins when put head-to-head against likely Democrat opponents (including Booker) for the 2013 election.  His undeniable leadership in a time of crisis and post-Sandy popularity has catapulted him to his highest favorability ratings ever as governor.  Christie now enters the 2013 race as a formidable opponent with strong job performance grades, greater support from his citizens, and a reputation that is less reminiscent of his pre-Sandy numbers and more reflective of his leadership and strong character in rebuilding the Garden State. But a lot can happen over the course of an election year, and we will be there to document it.

Press Releases: November 27, 2012, November 29, 2012

More on Superstorm Sandy – the Political Angle

Yesterday we talked about how Superstorm Sandy affected New Jersey residents. Today we turn to the political angle – that is, how do residents think their political leadership did in this test? The answer: Very well indeed. Both Gov. Christie and President Obama get high marks (Christie’s are higher) and the governors favorability rating is well above his previous high in any of our polls. And that bipartisan thing that so many national Republican leaders are upset about? Well, New Jerseyans – even GOP’ers – say it was exactly the right thing to do. National Republicans may be looking askance at our governor, but here in New Jersey he’s clearly done well.

Full text of the release follows. For a PDF with the text, questions, and tables, click here.

Oh, and CLICK HERE to help Superstorm Sandy victims!

HIGH MARKS FOR CHRISTIE, OBAMA, AND BIPARTISANSHIP IN SANDY AFTERMATH, RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL FINDS

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J –Garden Staters have responded very positively to NJ Gov. Chris Christie’s leadership following Superstorm Sandy, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. More than 90 percent praise the governor for his handling of the storm: 69 percent say Christie handled the crisis “very well” and another 23 percent say he handled it “somewhat well.”

And what about the headline-making, controversy-causing bipartisan relationship between Governor Christie and President Obama in Sandy’s wake? Eighty-one percent of New Jerseyans believe the two politicians showed “needed cooperation and bipartisanship,” compared to only 12 percent who think Christie “went too far in his praise” of the president.

The governor’s overall favorability rating now stands at 65 percent with all residents and 67 percent among registered voters, up more than 15 points from before the storm. Sixty-one percent of respondents say they support Christie more strongly due to his handling of the storm.

“Governor Christie has emerged as a clear leader in this crisis, with New Jerseyans applauding his efforts, and in particular his literal and figurative embrace of President Obama in a time of need,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers. “Despite a recent New York Times story that some national GOP leaders are condemning the governor for his show of bipartisanship, New Jerseyans of all stripes say it was exactly the right thing to do.”

New Jersey residents also commend President Obama, with 84 percent of residents saying Obama did “somewhat” or “very well” during the crisis. But most say this had no effect on how they voted: more than three-quarters of voters say the president’s response made no difference, while 18 percent say his assistance with Sandy made them more likely to vote for him.

Results are from a poll of 1,228 New Jersey adults conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from Nov 14-17. The sample has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. Within this sample is a subsample of 1,108 registered voters; this subsample has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

Strong bipartisan support for Christie

Democrats, independents, and Republicans all applaud the governor’s storm efforts. Two-thirds of Democrats and independents, and 78 percent of Republicans, say Christie did very well. Sixty percent of Democrats and independents say they now are stronger Christie supporters; 68 percent of Republicans feel the same. The governor’s favorability has reached bipartisan highs, with 49 percent of Democrats, 70 percent of independents, and 89 percent of Republicans saying they now have a favorable impression of Christie. Only 38 percent of Democrats report an unfavorable impression, a drop from 68 percent in early October, when only 22 percent of Democrats felt favorably toward the governor.

“Christie’s bipartisan outreach and his visible leadership resulted in high marks from people of all political persuasions,” said Redlawsk. “This is a nice exception to the typical partisan splits over nearly anything the governor does. In a time of crisis, people expect their elected leaders to put politics aside, and when that happens, they respond very positively.”

Christie receives high praise even from his customary detractors. Almost three-quarters of women (72 percent) think Christie handled the crisis very well, and 64 percent say they are now more supportive of him. Fifty-three percent of black residents and 61 percent of Hispanics say the governor did very well. Forty-three percent of blacks and 55 percent of Hispanics also say they are now more supportive of Christie.

The governor’s strongest support comes from those regions most heavily affected by Superstorm Sandy. Eighty-three percent of shore county residents say Christie handled the crisis very well, as do 76 percent of northwestern New Jersey (exurban) residents. More than 60 percent in each region are now more supportive of Christie because of his actions. Little difference in opinion exists between those personally affected by the storm and those who were not.

“The governor has clearly built a reservoir of goodwill through his aggressive approach to Sandy,” said Redlawsk. “The timing makes things interesting – those intending to run against him next year must make their decisions soon, yet the governor is clearly riding high right now. How long this reservoir lasts will help determine who gets in and who stays out of the 2013 gubernatorial race.”

Obama’s response also praised

While the president’s support does not quite reach the lofty levels seen for Christie, majorities of most groups say the president did at least somewhat well handling the crisis.
Virtually all Democrats commend him, and 76 percent say he did very well. While 61 percent of GOP respondents give the president a positive rating on his post-Sandy actions, only 27 percent say the president did very well.

Obama’s response to the storm had little impact on voters on Election Day, however, except for those already likely to vote for him. Thirty percent of Democrats say Obama’s storm response made them more likely to vote for him, compared to 12 percent of independents and five percent of Republicans. About one-fifth of women and 30 percent of black voters feel the same. Voters in the hardest hit regions – exurban and shore counties, which lean Republican – were most likely to say Obama’s response had no effect on their votes at all (81 percent and 77 percent, respectively).

Newark Mayor Cory Booker’s storm efforts, though not as well known throughout the rest of the state, notably score highly in urban areas, with 58 percent saying the mayor did somewhat or very well with the crisis. One-third are unsure.

Christie-Obama storm tour earns strong bipartisan support

In the midst of countless media stories and GOP controversy over Christie’s praise and embrace of Obama after the storm, New Jersey residents – including over two-thirds of Christie’s own party – support the show of bipartisanship by the Governor and the President. Eighty-eight percent of Democrats, 80 percent of independents, and 69 percent of Republicans say Christie’s gratitude toward and interaction with Obama was a necessary display of bipartisanship.

Only a quarter of Republicans feel Christie went too far and possibly hurt Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign. Likewise, 67 percent of conservatives support the bipartisan showing. Among those who voted, 68 percent of Romney supporters feel the bipartisanship was necessary, while 28 percent think Christie’s praise of the President was detrimental.

Sandy made voting more difficult for a few

Despite the storm’s timing, few voters had trouble casting their ballots. Only 7 percent of voters personally affected by Sandy say they found it difficult to vote. Statewide, 86 percent of voters said they experienced no difficulty at all. Among registered voters who said they failed to get to the polls, 20 percent say the storm played a role, though most had other reasons for not voting. Residents living in areas most affected by Sandy, shore and exurban counties are more likely to blame the storm for their failure to vote.

“Turnout here was noticeably lower than in most presidential elections,” noted Redlawsk, “but it’s hard to determine if Sandy was the reason. It seems likely that much of the drop was Sandy-related, although it also might be attributed to the fact New Jersey was not a battleground state.”

Superstorm Sandy and New Jersey

First, and most importantly, you can make a donation to relief efforts for Superstorm Sandy victims at https://sandynjrelieffund.org/index.html.

Today we release the first of two sets of Rutgers-Eagleton Poll results related to Superstorm Sandy. Today’s release focuses on the direct effects of the storm on NJ residents and their perceptions of how agencies responded.  Tomorrow we will look more at the political impact of the storm, including how residents perceived the performance of Gov. Chris Christie and President Obama in dealing with the storm.

To say the storm was a game changer for the state of NJ is probably to understate things. As our polling shows (and we all knew anyway) vast numbers of NJ residents were affected, with many forced to leave their homes, only to come back to significant damage.

If there is anything really unexpected in our results it is that despite the lack of power, in many cases for a week or more, NJ residents are not all that unhappy with the electric companies and their handling of the storm. Only a minority say the companies did a poor job, and even among those with extended outages ratings of the electric companies are better than we might expect. At the same time, there are some differences between them, with PSE&G getting somewhat higher ratings than JCP&L.

The full text of the release follows. For a PDF of the release text along with questions and tables, click here.

SUPERSTORM SANDY AFFECTS TWO-THIRDS OF GARDEN STATERS, RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL FINDS

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – Two-thirds of New Jersey residents were affected when Superstorm Sandy wreaked havoc on the Garden State three weeks ago, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Only 35 percent report they were not touched by storm, which caused massive damage throughout the state.

Sandy’s wrath was impressive. Nearly every resident who was affected  (94 percent) lost power for at least some time in the storm’s aftermath; 65 percent were without electricity for more than five days. One fifth of affected residents were forced to leave their homes, and of those, 6 percent say they have not yet returned. Almost one-third in affected areas reported damage to their home or other property.

Across the state, sixty-one percent of all New Jerseyans reported power losses, with 40 percent of all residents losing it for at least five days. All totaled, 14 percent of the state’s residents were forced to leave home.

“We already knew Sandy had a wide impact,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers. “What we get from these numbers is a clearer sense of its disruptive effects on nearly all New Jerseyans, whether near the shore or much further inland.”

In Sandy’s aftermath, New Jerseyans give high marks to FEMA and the Red Cross, even though only 10 percent of those affected by the storm report using the services of a disaster-assistance agency. Half of all residents say the Red Cross has handled the storm’s challenges “very well,” while another quarter say it has done so “somewhat well.” FEMA gets slightly lower marks; 37 percent say FEMA has handled things very well, while another 31 percent say somewhat well.

Given the challenges electric companies experienced with power repairs, Garden Staters are surprisingly supportive. Across the state, 41 percent say their electric company handled the crisis very well and 34 percent say it was handled somewhat well.

Results are from a poll of 1,228 New Jersey adults conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from Nov 14-17. The sample has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Impact of Sandy varies by region

While the effects of Superstorm Sandy were felt throughout the Garden State, those living in the south Jersey/Philadelphia area were much less likely to say they were affected by the storm. Three-quarters of residents in shore counties reported personal impact, but only a quarter of those living in counties near Philadelphia said the same.

While the Jersey Shore took the brunt of Sandy’s initial fury (79 percent affected), those in the northwestern exurban counties were just as likely to report being affected since falling trees there caused massive damage. Moreover, 69 percent of residents of Essex and Hudson counties also say they felt direct effects, as did 73 percent of those in suburban counties.

“This storm was unprecedented in the extent of its impact on New Jersey,” noted Redlawsk. “Learning how many people were directly affected drives home the degree of devastation.”

Among affected New Jerseyans, one in five said they were forced out of their homes by Sandy, and 6 percent still have been unable to return permanently. Not surprisingly, residents of shore communities were most likely to report being forced to leave their homes (24 percent), and they are far more likely than other residents to be unable to return (17 percent of those forced out). But 24 percent of urban residents also said they had to leave their homes, although nearly all have since returned.

Because of Sandy’s impact on residents of urban New Jersey, 31 percent of blacks and 24 percent of Hispanics were much more likely to have been forced to evacuate compared to whites (19 percent).

Power companies reported that the large majority of their customers were offline at the height of the damage – more than 90 percent lost power, except for those living in the south Jersey/Philadelphia area, where 78 percent were without power. Those who lost power in south Jersey got it back quickly; very few said it took more than five days.

The story was different for residents of exurban and shore communities, where 79 percent and 70 percent, respectively, of those losing power lost if for more than five days. Not surprisingly, exurban and shore region residents were most likely to report suffering: 30 percent of exurban residents and 36 percent of shore residents suffered the most damage to homes. Forty-nine percent of the former and 40 percent of the latter suffered property damage.

Approval for electric utilities varies

Large majorities of residents throughout the state (73 to 88 percent) say their electric companies handled the crisis “somewhat” or “very well,” but those in exurban counties were much less likely (61 percent) to agree. While 80 percent of those who did not lose power gave their electric companies good marks, even among those losing power, 70 percent rated their electric company’s performance highly. Among residents who lost power for more than five days, there is less good will, but still a majority (60 percent) gives positive reviews. Eighty-six percent of those who did not lose power or went without for a shorter time felt positively about their utility company.

By a 42 to 29 percent margin, PSE&G customers are much more positive than those of JCP&L. One-third of customers from each company rated its performance as somewhat well. However, 22 percent say JCP&L performed very poorly compared to 10 percent of PSE&G customers. Atlantic City Power and Light customers are the most satisfied: 66 percent say the company performed very well and another 28 percent said it did somewhat well. This may be because less than one-third of its customers said they were directly impacted by the storm, and fewer reported losing power.

“Given the severity of the storm, it is not surprising that it took the power companies a long time to return some sense of normalcy,” said Redlawsk. “And it seems that most residents, as frustrated as they might be, recognized the difficulty the companies faced. Even so, there is a clear difference with JCP&L getting clearly lower ratings from its customers.”

Preparedness

New Jersey residents are split on how prepared the state was for Sandy’s arrival: 35 percent say New Jersey was adequately prepared while 46 percent disagree. Another 15 percent said that given the nature of the storm, New Jersey prepared as well as possible, even if the effort was insufficient. Another 3 percent are fatalistic, saying nothing could have been done to be prepared for Sandy.

Residents in the northeastern urban counties were least likely to believe the state was ready for the storm (26 percent). Those in the Philadelphia/south Jersey region were most likely to think the state was well prepared (45 percent).

Those who were personally affected by Superstorm Sandy are less likely to believe the state was fully prepared compared to those not directly affected (32 percent versus 40 percent). A similar pattern is seen with those who were forced to evacuate, those unable to return to their homes, those who lost power for a lengthy period of time, and those with damage to their homes.

Disaster assistance usage depends on region, income

Residents of the hardest hit parts of the state are most likely to report making use of disaster assistance, as would be expected. Yet even in those areas, the large majority of residents have not sought agency assistance so far.

In the shore counties, 15 percent of those affected have sought assistance, while 14 percent of those in Hudson and Essex counties, and 9 percent living in northwestern New Jersey have done so. While the highest income New Jerseyans are more likely to report house and general property damage, affected individuals earning less than $50,000 are twice as likely as wealthy residents hit by the storm to use a disaster assistance agency, 13 percent to 6 percent.

Twenty percent of those who sustained damage to their homes have sought assistance from agencies like FEMA and the Red Cross, and 10 percent of those with general property damage have done the same.

Approval of FEMA and the Red Cross are high, with interesting variations. While three-quarters of Democrats say FEMA has performed very or somewhat well, only 63 percent of independents and 55 percent of Republicans agree. The Red Cross gets more bipartisan support, though Democrats are still more positive, at 83 percent, versus 71 percent of independents and 73 percent of Republicans.

“FEMA is an arm of the federal government, so it is perhaps unsurprising that Republicans – who generally view the federal government less favorably – are less positive about it,” said Redlawsk. “This perception is probably not driven by specific facts on the ground, since Republicans and Democrats are equally likely to have been victims of the storm.”

Black residents (80 percent) are more likely to think FEMA has been handling the crisis very or somewhat well than whites (65 percent) or Hispanics (67 percent). A similar pattern is seen in race and ethnicity with views on the Red Cross. Exurban counties are less likely to say FEMA or the Red Cross is doing somewhat or very well, though most residents in this region and all other regions are at least somewhat positive.

Those forced to leave their homes are slightly less approving of either organization – particularly the Red Cross (65 percent versus 77 percent not forced to evacuate).

“For many, life is still not back to normal, so it was a difficult decision to start polling again,” said Redlawsk. “But we felt assessing how New Jerseyans feel in the aftermath of this storm and its effects is important, and as it turns out many people were happy to speak with us.”