RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL: ROMNEY LEADS SANTORUM AS TOP GOP CONTENDER IN NEW JERSEY

For a PDF of the full text plus questions and tables click here.

We weigh in again on the 2012 presidential election here in New Jersey. Last time we looked – in December – Mitt Romney led and Newt Gingrich came in second. Well, mirroring the national trend, Gingrich has dropped off the New Jersey radar and Rick Santorum has climbed into second. Romney continues to hold a decent lead, but he still hasn’t broken 40 percent. There remains a lot of uncertainty in the Republican race.

For the first time in this cycle we have also asked about issues and candidate qualities. No surprise on issues: it’s the economy again, stupid. By a long shot. Candidate qualities vary by party – Republicans clearly want a leader; Democrats are evenly split between a leader, a candidate who shares their values, and a candidate “who cares about me.”

And in the head-to-head between Obama and Romney, Obama has widened the lead we reported in December, as is now up by 25 points.

We should note two things. One, we have changed our Republican nomination question. Throughout 2011, we used an open ended question, asking people to name their preference. Not surprisingly, a lot of people could not. We used an  open ended question because it was difficult to name every (possible) candidate before the voting began. But now that we are down to four Republican candidates, we have switched to the typical named ballot test – we give all four names and ask voters to choose. This drives down the don’t knows. And the two questions are not strictly comparable. So while we feel comfortable that Romney continues to lead as he has, we can’t exactly say how much his lead has changed since December.

Second, a mea culpa. When we wrote the questionnaire, about three and a half weeks ago, Rick Santorum still seemed mostly dead – and he certainly did not register in our December polling. So in the interest of saving time (which means keeping our costs down) we did NOT do a head-to-head between Santorum and Obama. Nor did we test Santorum’s favorability rating. We DO know Romney leads Santorum by 17 points. We do NOT know how voters view Santorum or how he would do against Obama. We suspect, however, it would be worse than Romney, given the dynamics of New Jersey. But that’s truly just informed speculation, not based on data.

Text of the release follows. For a PDF of the full text plus questions and tables click here.

RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL: ROMNEY LEADS SANTORUM AS TOP GOP CONTENDER IN NEW JERSEY BUT WOULD LOSE TO OBAMA

Voters call jobs and the economy most important issues

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – With just over three months until the New Jersey primary and nine months from the presidential election, New Jersey Republicans continue to prefer former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney as their standard-bearer in the battle against President Barack Obama. But Romney has yet to solidify his support here, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll.

While about a third (36 percent) of GOP voters and “leaners” favor Romney, former U.S. senator, Pennsylvanian Rick Santorum has risen to second at 19 percent. The two are followed by former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Representative Ron Paul, each of whom claims support from 11 percent of Republicans. Another 14 percent say they would prefer “someone else” not in the field or none of the choices, and 8 percent are unsure.

“Romney has yet to break 40 percent here, reflecting the continued uncertainty about him among Republicans,” said poll Director David Redlawsk, a professor of political science at Rutgers University. “As in other states, we have seen Santorum rise from nearly nothing to become a contender. But for the moment Romney remains well out front in the GOP field.”

Jobs and the economy are the most important issues in their choice for president among a majority of respondents, Redlawsk observed. At the same time, most want a strong leader, someone who shares their values and “cares about people like them.” These desired characteristics aside, a majority also wants a president who will compromise.

In a general election matchup, Obama would beat Romney in New Jersey by 25 percentage points, 56 percent to 31 percent. He led Romney by 19 points in December. “As the president’s favorability ratings and job performance grade improve, he has also improved his electoral position,” noted Redlawsk. “While New Jersey isn’t necessarily in the bag for the president, he has certainly pulled ahead in this traditionally blue state.”

Results are from a poll of 914 registered voters conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from Feb. 9-11. The full sample has a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. While New Jerseyans must be registered in a political party to vote in its primary, an independent voter can declare party affiliation at the polls and vote. Thus the sample includes a subsample of 289 Republican and Republican-leaning independents, with a margin of error of +/- 5.9 percentage points.

Republicans support Romney, but many are not satisfied with choices

As the election draws closer, only 8 percent of registered Republican and Republican-leaning voters say they do not know who to pick, although another 14 percent wish they had another choice. Among the remaining contenders, 36 percent prefer Romney, up from 28 percent in an open-ended question in December. The race remains fluid, however, as Romney stays below 40 percent, Redlawsk said. He added that Santorum is the most recent beneficiary of the unsettled race. The former senator was named by only 1 percent of GOP voters in December, but now gets 19 percent, and has supplanted Gingrich as New Jersey’s second choice.

That the race remains up in the air is reflected in the fact that only 11 percent of Republicans are “very satisfied” with the candidates, while another 57 percent are “somewhat satisfied,” Redlawsk said. Nearly a third says they are not satisfied, but this an improvement since last August, when only 3 percent were very satisfied with their choices for the nomination.

Conservatives are more satisfied than moderates: 82 percent are at least somewhat satisfied with the field, although only 19 percent are very satisfied. On the other hand, 5 percent of moderates report being very satisfied and 56 percent are somewhat satisfied with the choices available to them.

“The overall picture here seems to be somewhat grudging support for Romney that has grown slowly over time,” said Redlawsk. “But he has always had one or another pesky challenger nipping at his heels here, and now that’s Santorum. If Santorum continues to rise nationally, he could be a real threat to Romney in New Jersey.”

The economy is the issue but voters eye personal characteristics as well

Sixty percent of voters say the “economy and jobs” is the most important issue when deciding on a presidential candidate. Republicans (64 percent), Democrats (58 percent) and independents (60 percent) all agree.

Across all voters, health care is a very distant second, named by 12 percent of voters, followed by education (9 percent) and the federal budget deficit (8 percent). However, Republicans (11 percent) and independents (10 percent) put the budget deficit second, while Democrats name health care and education (15 percent and 14 percent, respectively) after the economy.

“There is wide agreement that the economy is the most important issues for voters and nothing else comes close,” said Redlawsk.

Leadership is the most prized candidate quality, according to 28 percent of all registered voters. “Shares my values” and “cares about me” are next at 20 percent and 19 percent, respectively.  Republicans are especially focused on leadership (43 percent) and shared values (18 percent). The spread is closer among Democrats: caring (25 percent) edges leadership (24 percent) and shared values (21 percent).

Voters also favor flexibility in the White House. Almost two-thirds want a president who will compromise to complete an agenda while the remainder prefers a leader who sticks to his beliefs. Seventy percent of independents wish for a compromiser but fewer partisans (62 percent of Democrats, 59 percent of Republicans) are enamored of this trait.

Obama extends lead over Romney

Since December’s Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, Obama has added six percentage points to his 19-point lead over Romney and would now beat the Garden State GOP frontrunner, 56 percent to 31 percent. The president leads among independents, 49 percent to 34 percent, while 90 percent of Democrats say they would stick by the president. Republicans are not quite as united for Romney: 78 percent say they would vote for him.

As for personal traits, Romney wins among voters who want a strong leader, 47 percent to 43 percent. Obama, however, easily wins among those looking for shared values (60 percent to 26 percent) and a caring leader (75 percent to 17 percent).

“Part of Obama’s advantage right now is the contentious Republican race,” said Redlawsk. “Once a nominee is chosen, Republicans are likely to rally around him. Still, with many more Democrats than Republicans in New Jersey, any Republican nominee has to do better among unaffiliated voters than we are seeing now.”

Gov. Christie income tax cut supported, but little awareness of how much it will save

We continue today with our series of releases on our current poll. Last week was about same-sex marriage (here, and here) , the merger of Rowan University and Rutgers-Camden, and how Gov. Christie and Pres. Obama are doing in NJ. Today we take on attitudes toward Gov. Christie’s proposed 10% income tax cut. The governor is giving his budget address today, so it seems to make sense to see how NJ voters feel about his proposal. In a nutshell, a majority supports a 10% income tax cut, but most seem to have no real idea how much such a cut would save them, and the vast majority wants to see property taxes cut first if they had a choice.

We should point out that these releases all come from the same poll – that is, we were in the field calling people from Feb. 9 to Feb. 11. We asked a series of questions on many different topics, as we usually do. The result is that we release the different parts of the poll over time – usually no more than three weeks – in order to give time to digest it all, and to give us time to do the analysis and writing! So there is still more to come this week and next, including a look back at 40 years of taxes, how things are looking for the 2012 election in this state, and a fun release about New Year’s resolutions. So stay tuned!

Full text of the release follows. For a PDF of questions and tables, click here.

RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL: MAJORITY OF NEW JERSEY VOTERS SUPPORT CHRISTIE INCOME TAX CUT

But most would prefer property tax cut first

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – As Gov. Chris Christie prepares to give his annual budget address, a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll shows a majority of registered voters support his proposed 10 percent income tax cut. But even though 52 percent say they support the governor’s signature budget proposal, fully three-quarters would prefer to see a property tax cut come first.

Moreover, voters significantly overestimate how much money they would actually receive from an income tax cut. A New Jersey taxpayer making $50,000 would save a little less than $100 per year from a 10 percent income tax cut, and those making $100,000 would save about $275. Voters anticipate a median savings of nearly $750.

“People are eager for tax relief,” said poll Director David Redlawsk, a professor of political science at Rutgers University. “Yet for most New Jerseyans the burden they feel comes from property taxes, more than from income taxes. A majority would certainly take an income tax cut over nothing, but large numbers have no idea how much they would save from Christie’s proposal.”

While there are strong partisan differences in support for an income tax cut – 72 percent of Republicans want it, while only 38 percent of Democrats offer support – everyone agrees that a property tax cut is preferred. Nearly eight-in-ten Republicans and Democrats say cut property taxes first, and 73 percent of independents agree.

Results are from a poll of 914 registered voters conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from Feb. 9-11. The full sample has a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.

Income tax cut popular among Republicans, voters with higher incomes

Predictably, nearly three-quarters of Republicans favor the proposed income tax cut, with only 21 percent opposed. Independents support the proposal, 54 percent to 32 percent. Democrats statewide are dubious about this plan, with half opposed and only 38 percent in favor. These figures lead to an expected outcome: 71 percent of voters with positive feelings about Christie support an income tax cut. A majority (55 percent) who feel unfavorable toward Christie oppose his plan.

Household income makes little difference in support for the proposed tax cut: 58 percent who earn more than $150,000 annually and 53 percent who earn less favor the proposal. Gender also makes little difference: 54 percent of men and 50 percent of women say they favor the tax cut.

“While those at higher income benefit more in terms of dollars, that doesn’t seem to make much difference,” said Redlawsk. “Support for the proposed income tax cut remains consistent across all income levels.”

Christie’s income tax relief is less popular among the more educated; only 43 percent of voters with post-graduate education favor the proposal, while more than half of those with less education say they like the idea. Support for the income tax cut is slightly higher among whites (54 percent) than among blacks (49 percent). More retired voters (55 percent) favor the savings than full-time workers (52 percent) or part-timers (50 percent).  Fewer than half of the unemployed support the proposed tax cut.

Voters overestimate value of income tax cut

Thirty-five percent of registered voters think a 10 percent tax cut would save them more than $500 per year, but reports suggest that a household would have to earn more than $150,000 in taxable income to save just over $500 in state taxes. Another 32 percent say they are unsure about their savings. Only 22 percent estimated their savings at $200 or less.

Support for the tax cut is greatly influenced by inaccurate perceptions of how much will be saved. Among the 31 percent who think they will save $750 per year or more, nearly two-thirds support the tax cut. Among those who expect to save less, support runs from 44 to 48 percent.

“Only 14 percent of voters report household incomes over $150,000,” noted Redlawsk. “These respondents can expect savings above $500 from the proposed cut. But more than twice as many say they expect to save that much. People really do not have a good sense of how much they pay in state income tax and what a 10 percent savings means. This leads them to overestimate their own gain, which may affect their support for the proposal.” -

Voters in households with lower incomes give the lowest estimate of their savings, though they still over estimate badly. About a quarter of those earning under $50,000 believe their tax savings would be more than  $200, far higher than the $80 savings likely at $50,000 income. Moreover, 10 percent of those earning less than $50,000 and 15 percent of earners between $50,000 and $100,000 anticipate tax savings of more than $2,000.

“There is a great deal of misinformation about how much can be saved in state income taxes,” said Redlawsk. “Most voters appear to be guessing at best, and are guessing very high. One-third won’t even make a guess.”

Strong preference for property tax reduction

Although the governor’s proposed income tax cut is popular across the state, an overwhelming majority of voters (76 percent) would prefer a property tax reduction. Given a choice between the two taxes, Republicans, Democrats and independents all agree that property taxes should be reduced first. Voters’ opinions of the governor do not seem to affect preference for property tax reduction. Those with a favorable opinion (80 percent) and an unfavorable opinion (74 percent) strongly prefer a property tax cut come first. Even eight-in-10 of the highest earning Garden Staters – who would benefit most from an income tax cut – prefer to see their property taxes cut before income taxes.

“Everyone likes lower taxes” said Redlawsk. “But property tax cuts are what New Jerseyans seem to want. While recent changes pushed by Gov. Christie have placed stronger caps on property tax increases, voters still want to see those taxes actually reduced. It’s one thing nearly everyone agrees on.”

 

RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL: OBAMA CONTINUES TO RISE IN NEW JERSEY; CHRISTIE RATING RELATIVELY UNCHANGED

For full text of this release including questions and tables, click here.

RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL: OBAMA CONTINUES TO RISE IN NEW JERSEY; CHRISTIE RATINGS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – President Obama’s popularity and job performance grade continue to improve in New Jersey, extending a trend that began in October, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Sixty percent of respondents now view the president favorably, an increase of 10 points since an October 2011 Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. The president’s favorability rating among New Jerseyans is at its highest point in more than 18 months. Only 33 percent of voters say they hold an unfavorable impression of him.

New Jerseyans also give the president higher grades on job performance. Nearly half (48 percent) give him an A or B, compared to 38 percent in October. Negative grades (D or F) have remained static at 30 percent, unchanged from 31 percent four months ago. Those in the middle, giving Obama a C, have declined by 10 points to 22 percent.

“We have seen a continual increase in positive ratings for the president since he bottomed out in New Jersey in August,” said poll Director David Redlawsk, a professor of political science at Rutgers University. “And while voters continue to like him personally better than they like the job he is doing, that gap has been closing.”

In contrast, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s favorability and job performance numbers remain virtually unchanged. Forty-seven percent rate the governor favorably, virtually no change over the past two years. Forty-three percent grade the governor A or B, and 32 percent assign a D or F. Both numbers are essentially unchanged from October 2011, though improved since August last year. Another 24 percent give him a C.

“Governor Christie’s favorability ratings in our polls have stayed within a very small range, between 44 percent and 49 percent, since he was inaugurated,” said Redlawsk. “His job performance grade bounces around a bit more, depending on how voters view the particular issues of the day. But where voters prefer Obama personally to his job performance, the two measures are closely tied in the case of the governor.”

Results are from a poll of 914 registered voters conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from Feb. 9-11. The full sample has a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.

Rating Obama: independents now very favorable,

One key to Obama’s rising fortunes in the state is that independent voters are now strongly positive in their personal assessments of the president, with 55 percent reporting a favorable impression, up 14 percent since last October, while 37 percent are unfavorable, down from 47 percent. Even Republicans have shown a softening: 17 percent now view the president with favor, double the October number. Even so, 76 percent remain negative.

“Independent and moderate voters are the key to winning re-election in New Jersey,” said Redlawsk. “If Obama’s numbers continue to tick up among these groups, he will be in good shape in November. It appears that his latest moves to be more assertive against the Republican Congress and to take on his opponents more directly may be paying off, as least here.”

Obama’s job performance grade is also up across all voters: 16 percent say he deserves an A (up six points from October), and 32 percent give him a B (up from 28 percent).

Among the 60 percent of voters who rate the president favorably, 25 percent say he should get an A for his job performance, 50 percent say he deserves a B, and 21 percent say a C reflects his performance most accurately. This is an improvement over the past few months when even those who liked the president rated him less positively on his job performance. Last October, 50 percent of registered voters had a favorable impression of Obama, yet only 19 percent gave his job performance an A while 48 percent graded it B. Thirty percent of those who liked him said his stewardship merited only a C four months ago.

“The important point here is that not only is the president’s favorability and job performance grade improved, but those who like him are now much more likely to like the job he is doing,” said Redlawsk.

Rating Christie: Not much change

While Obama is on the uptick in New Jersey, Christie’s favorability and job performance ratings remain relatively unchanged from October. Looking further back, Christie was viewed favorably by 45 percent of voters in February 2010; today that number is 47 percent. Likewise, job performance numbers have changed little overall, with 16 percent giving him an A and 27 percent a B. On the other side, 14 percent give the governor a D and 18 percent fail him. About one-quarter of voters are right in the middle, grading his job performance as a C.

“When it comes to job performance, Obama and Christie are viewed pretty much the same by voters,” said Redlawsk. “But compared with the President, Christie’s job performance and personal likeability remain much more closely linked.”

Comparing job performance as rated by one’s own supporters, Christie does slightly better than Obama. The governor’s performance is given an A or B by 80 percent of his supporters, compared to the 75 percent of Obama supporters who give him these high marks. In this measure, Obama is catching up to Christie, since the gap was larger a few months ago.

At the same time, Christie no longer outperforms Obama among independents. Unaffiliated registered voters rate the governor’s performance favorably: 41 percent grade him A or B and 32 percent D or F. But among independents, Obama earns an A or B from 47 percent and a D or F from 24 percent.

Redlawsk summed up the findings this way: “The movement we see since our last assessment is chiefly in Obama’s improving fortunes in the Garden State.”

RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL: NJ VOTERS DON’T SUPPORT MERGER OF RUTGERS-CAMDEN AND ROWAN

For PDF of full release with questions and tables, click here.

We’re very busy here at the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Last two days it has been same-sex marriage. Today we turn to higher education in New Jersey. While we don’t have a plethora (love that word!) of questions on education this time around, we do have two related to issues in the political/policy environment. The first question we asked was about a higher education bond issue being discussed as a possibility for the November ballot. There hasn’t been a facilities bond for colleges and universities since 1988. The idea is to borrow on a bond to improve existing facilities and construct new ones across the state. Turns out NJ voters are about evenly split on it – it’s a hard question whether to borrow now to help colleges, or to worry that government has simply borrowed too much.

The second question is much more hot button. dealing with the proposed merger of Rutgers-Camden and Rowan University, a merger supported by Gov. Chris Christie. Here there is no ambivalence. Opposition to the proposed merger is wide and deep as we detail in today’s poll release. At least so far, Garden Staters are not convinced that this is the way to go.

We should note that we are not completely innocent bystanders in either of these issues. Obviously, as an academic center at Rutgers University – New Brunswick, we potentially may be affected by either of these issues, though quite indirectly at best. However, we did our best with these questions – as we do with all others – to design balanced questions that would tap public opinion fairly. And we report the numbers as we get them. Given that the other numbers in this poll (both yesterday’s and releases to come) seem to make sense in the context of NJ, we are comfortable that our processes were appropriate for this poll overall. Whether we asked exactly the right questions is a more subjective thing, and reasonable people may disagree. More to the point, asking the same basic question in multiple ways may come up with variations in opinion. However, the reality is that when we do a statewide poll on a number of topics, we are limited as to how many questions we can ask on any one topic. But we publish the exact text of our questions, so feel free to read them by clicking on the fullt ext link below and critique away!

Full text of today’s release follows.  For PDF of full release with questions and tables, click here.

RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL: MAJORITY OF NEW JERSEY VOTERS
OPPOSE RUTGERS-CAMDEN MERGER WITH ROWAN

Potential higher education bond issue evenly divides voters

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – A clear majority of New Jersey’s registered voters – 57 percent – oppose the proposed merger of Rutgers-Camden with Rowan University, recently championed by Gov. Chris Christie, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Only 22 percent support the merger and 21 percent are unsure, the poll found.

Concurrently, voters are split in supporting a higher education facilities bond: 48 percent favor borrowing for improvements at the state’s colleges and universities, and 45 percent do not.

Voters in South Jersey are no more supportive of the merger of the two schools than in the rest of the state. Instead, the highest support is found in northwestern New Jersey and the Shore counties, two areas that are strong backers of Christie. Even in these regions, however, many more voters oppose the merger than support it.

“Governor Christie’s plan to merge Rowan and Rutgers-Camden may be the most unpopular idea he has put forward to date,” said Rutgers-Eagleton Poll Director David Redlawsk, a professor of political science at Rutgers University in New Brunswick. “Generally, he can count on support from a majority of Republicans. We might also expect voters in South Jersey to be in favor, given the benefits Christie says will come from the merger. But in reality, neither of these groups, or any other, comes close to supporting it.”

Results are from a poll of 914 registered voters conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from Feb. 9-11. The full sample has a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.

Opposition to merger plan is broad and deep

While GOP voters usually support Christie’s policies, in this case they clearly do not. Though twice as likely as Democrats to support the merger, only 32 percent favor combining the two universities, while 49 percent oppose the plan. Few Democrats support the merger, with only 16 percent in favor and 67 percent opposed. Nearly 20 percent of both parties are unsure. Independent voters are 2-to-1 opposed, but nearly one-quarter of independents are unsure where they stand.

The merger plan does best among those with a favorable impression of the governor, and among the wealthiest Garden Staters, but even most of these voters are skeptical. While the plan garners 30 percent support from those who like Christie, 44 percent of his supporters oppose it. Not surprisingly, those with an unfavorable opinion of Christie are overwhelmingly opposed, at 14 percent support and 71 percent opposition.

One-third of voters with household incomes over $150,000 support the governor’s plan, while 39 percent oppose it, and 28 percent have no opinion. On the opposite end of the financial spectrum, voters in households with annual incomes under $50,000 are firmly against merging Rowan and Rutgers-Camden: 63 percent are opposed and only 16 percent in favor. About one-quarter of the remaining income groups support the plan and about 60 percent do not.

Despite the potential benefits to South Jersey, voters in the region are not convinced. Mimicking the statewide numbers, 19 percent of those living in Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester and Salem counties support the plan, while 71 percent oppose it. South Jersey voters are much less likely to be unsure, at only 10 percent. Residents of the Shore counties are least opposed, with 44 percent negative, the only region to have less than a majority against the merger, and 27 percent in favor. But 30 percent of these voters are unsure of their position on the issue, the highest in the state.

“The stunning thing about these numbers is simply how negative voters are about the plan,” said Redlawsk. “We thought those living in South Jersey would be more supportive than most, since the proposal is put forward as significant enhancement for the region. But the reality is this is a deeply disliked proposal.”

New Jerseyans split on education bond

While Christie is proposing to remake higher education in South Jersey, leaders of the state’s colleges and universities are considering whether the time is right to put a higher education facilities bond issue on the November ballot. If voted on today, the result would be a toss-up.

Forty-eight percent of respondents would have the state take on more debt to build and refurbish college facilities, thus creating construction jobs, but 45 percent say it is a bad time to take on more debt, and oppose the measure. Only 8 percent are not sure where they stand.

Democrats are stronger supporters of the bond issue than Republicans. Sixty-three percent of Democrats are in support of the bond issue and 27 percent oppose. Only 35 percent of Republicans are in favor, while 59 percent oppose borrowing for college facilities. Independents respond similarly to Republicans: 39 percent are in support of the bond and 53 percent oppose it.

Voters with an unfavorable opinion of Christie are more supportive of the bond: 59 percent support borrowing, while 34 percent think it is a bad time for more debt. Among those who think favorably of Christie, only 37 percent support and 56 percent oppose a bond issue.

There appears to be a limited relationship between support for the bond issue and opposition to the merger of Rutgers-Camden and Rowan University. Half of merger opponents support a higher education bond issue, while 45 percent of supporters also favor borrowing for facilities. This small difference is likely accounted for by partisanship – Republicans are more likely to support the merger, and less likely to support the bond issue proposal.

Whites are weaker supporters of the measure than blacks. Only 45 percent of whites support the bond proposal compared to 56 percent of African-Americans. Forty-seven percent of whites and 35 percent of blacks oppose the bond. Regional differences are minimal: urban voters are more supportive, but there are no differences among other regions of the state.

“Borrowing right now is a tricky business,” said Redlawsk. “While interest rates are at historic lows making borrowing costs as low as they are ever likely to be, voters are generally dubious about governments taking on more debt. At the same time, New Jersey voters seem at least inclined to consider a bond issue, if one is put forward.”

NJ VOTERS MAY SUPPORT SAME-SEX MARRIAGE, BUT THEY WANT TO VOTE ON IT

For a PDF of the text along with the questions and tables, click here.

Yesterday we reported that a majority of NJ Voters support same-sex marriage. Today we expand on that by also noting that a majority support’s NJ Gov. Chris Christie’s call for a vote on the issue, while 40 percent support Newark Mayor Cory Booker’s position that the issue is one of civil rights and should not be submitted to a vote. One interesting twist though. NJ votes don’t care very much about the issue – it is not considered even very important by a large majority. BUT, those who support marriage equality are much more likely to call it an important issue than are those who oppose it. Interesting food for thought here – if there were a referendum, would supporters be more likely to get out than opponents? If so, that would be pretty much the opposite of what has happened elsewhere when the issue has been on the ballot.

The text of the release follows. For a PDF of the text along with the questions and tables, click here.

RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL: NEW JERSEY VOTERS SUPPORT GOV. CHRISTIE’S CALL FOR GAY MARRIAGE REFERENDUM

Majority supports gay marriage but issue not that important to most

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – Even with a majority of New Jersey voters supporting the legalization of gay marriage, more than half also back Gov. Chris Christie’s call for a November referendum on the question, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. At the same time, most say gay marriage is not one of their top issues.

As reported by the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll yesterday, 54 percent of Garden State voters favor legalizing same-sex marriage. At the same time, 53 percent of voters support Christie’s call for a vote on the issue while 40 percent support Newark Mayor Cory Booker’s position that gay marriage is a civil rights issue that should not be decided upon by voters. Even among those who support gay marriage, a majority wants a referendum.

While the Democratic-led Legislature has made gay marriage a top priority, fewer than 25 percent of voters say gay marriage is the most important or one of a very few important issues facing New Jersey today. “It’s surprising that so many of those who support same-sex marriage are also in favor of a referendum,” said Rutgers-Eagleton Poll Director David Redlawsk, a professor of political science at Rutgers. “It may be that given several polls showing majority support among voters, supporters of same-sex marriage think it would win in November. But in the face of a likely intensive campaign from opponents, this could be wishful thinking.”

Results are from a poll of 914 registered voters conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from Feb. 9-11. The full sample has a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.

Clear support for referendum across most demographic groups

While 54 percent of registered voters support legalizing gay marriage, voters also want to be able to weigh in on the issue – 53 percent of all voters support Christie’s proposal to have a referendum. This majority support for a ballot question persists across most demographic groups as well as among those who support legalization. Among gay marriage supporters, half also favor Christie’s call for a referendum, while 44 percent oppose it. Among those who oppose gay marriage, 60 percent support the referendum.

The referendum issue was raised in the context of the governor’s call for a ballot question and Booker’s stance that same-sex marriage is about civil rights and not for voters to decide. Given the framing, it is notable that voters with a favorable impression of Booker are evenly split on the call for a referendum, 47 percent for and 48 percent against. Voters with a favorable opinion of Christie clearly support a referendum, 66 percent to 29 percent.

“Despite strong favorable ratings, Mayor Booker’s position is in the minority,” said Redlawsk. “While those with an unfavorable impression of him strongly support a referendum, it is interesting that those who like the mayor are evenly split. The messenger may be liked, but the message is not resonating with most voters.”

Groups with majorities opposed to a referendum include Democrats (54 percent), those with more than a college degree (53 percent) and black voters (52 percent). Democratic voters and black voters likely oppose the referendum in part because Christie is calling for it, but also due to efforts to make a strong connection between gay marriage and civil rights, and the historical controversy surrounding putting civil rights issues on the ballot. The connection to civil rights may resonate especially with black voters despite the fact that a majority of black voters actually oppose legalizing gay marriage.

In addition, just over half of the highest income voters, just under half of liberals and half of those in a public union household also oppose the referendum

Gay marriage not a top priority for voters

As a marriage bill makes its way through the New Jersey Legislature, 40 percent of voters say gay marriage is not at all important in the context of other issues facing the state. Just over one-third believe the issue is “somewhat important” and only 22 percent call gay marriage the most important (3 percent) or “one of a few very important issues” (19 percent) that need to be addressed. This result appears across all demographic groups, with most in each group believing the issue is not important at all with only a few groups having a majority who believe it is somewhat important.

Among gay marriage supporters, about one-third think the issue is at least very important. Almost half (46 percent) think it is somewhat important and about a quarter (22 percent) think it is not important at all. A large majority of opponents (62 percent) believe the issue unimportant.

Thirty percent of Democrats, 36 percent of liberals, and 39 percent of those under 30 believe gay marriage is at least one of a few very important issues in New Jersey. Twenty-eight percent of Born Again Christians feel the same, even though they are overwhelmingly against legalization. On the other hand, Republicans and conservatives – two other groups fiercely opposed to gay marriage – are much more likely to believe the issue is not important at all.

“Supporters of same-sex marriage may have a better opportunity than in most states, if the issue were to go to referendum,” said Redlawsk. “In most places where it has been on the ballot, opponents have been the ones who were intensely concerned and mobilized by the campaign. In New Jersey, most opponents of same-sex marriage appear to not care as much about it as supporters, at least for the moment. But a strong opposition campaign could change that.”

Only about 41 percent of those who think gay marriage is very important support letting the voters decide. But more than half who believe the issue is only somewhat important or not important at all also support Christie’s proposal.

Support for gay marriage increases for many demographic groups

Support for legalizing same-sex marriage in New Jersey has increased across various demographic groups. Joining Democrats (63 percent) and liberals (81 percent) as supporters, a majority of independents (56 percent) and moderates (55 percent) are in favor of gay marriage. Voters of all age groups – except for those over 65 – are in support as well: 77 percent of those under 30, 57 percent of those 30-to-49-years-old, and 55 percent of those 50- to-64. For the first time, a clear majority of Catholics (52 percent) and males (52 percent) support same-sex marriage. Women (57 percent) and those of higher socioeconomic status – higher education (59 percent for college graduates and 68 percent for those who have completed graduate work) and higher income (more than half of voters in each of two highest income brackets) – continue to support legalization.

However, gay marriage still faces strong opposition from those groups who typically oppose it. Republican (58 percent) and conservative (69 percent) voters are still greatly opposed. Half of Protestants, 70 percent of evangelical Christians, and over half of those voters 65 years and older also show majorities opposed to legalization. Half of black voters are opposed as well.

RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL: MAJORITY OF NEW JERSEY VOTERS SUPPORT GAY MARRIAGE

PDF of the release with all tables here.

Today we release initial results from our polling over the past weekend on the question of same-sex marriage. Not surprisingly, given the results of our previously released polls on this question, a majority of NJ voters continues to support legal recognition for same sex marriage. Pretty much no matter how we have asked this question over the past six months, we have found a majority in support. Today’s results confirm that even as the debate has heated up again with the introduction of a marriage equality bill in the NJ legislature, positions have shifted little. We do see some increased support in certain groups – in particular men overall have become more supportive.  But increases in some groups have been offset by stronger opposition among the most conservative voters, who have moved 8 points more negative since October. The result is little change in aggregate opinion, but some evidence of ideological polarization.

The full text of the release follows. You can get a PDF of the release with all tables here.

RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL: MAJORITY OF NEW JERSEY VOTERS
SUPPORT GAY MARRIAGE

Some polarization evident as legislature debates the issue

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. – As the New Jersey state Senate prepares to vote on gay marriage, a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll shows that 54 percent of Garden State voters say gay marriage should be legalized. Fewer than 40 percent oppose such a move, while 7 percent have no position on the issue. The last time the state legislature debated a marriage bill, during the 2009 lame-duck session, only 46 percent of Garden Staters were in favor, and 40 percent opposed.

“Over the past two years there has been a clear shift towards support for same-sex marriage in national polling and in New Jersey,” said Rutgers-Eagleton Poll director David Redlawsk, a professor of political science at Rutgers University in New Brunswick. “This shift has occurred pretty much across the spectrum, with the exception of the strongly religious and most conservative voters. And while there has been little aggregate change since this reintroduction of the marriage bill we are seeing some ideological polarization as the debate develops.”

Results are from a poll of 914 registered voters conducted statewide among both landline and cell phone households from Feb. 9-11. The full sample has a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.

Support for Gay Marriage in New Jersey

Majority support for legalizing gay marriage in New Jersey cuts across demographic groups. Self-identified liberals are the most supportive, at 81 percent, while 63 percent of Democrats say they favor legalization. Majorities of moderates (55 percent) and independent voters (56 percent) are also in favor. Younger voters are overwhelmingly supportive, with three-quarters of those under 30 supporting gay marriage. Except for the oldest voters, other age groups are also supportive: 57 percent of those 30 to 49 years old express support for legalization, along with 55 percent of those 50 to 64 years old.

Despite ongoing expressions of concern by Catholic Church leadership, a 52 percent majority of Catholic voters continue to support legalizing same-sex marriage. Protestant voters, however, are less supportive, with only 43 percent in favor and 50 percent opposed.

Since a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll in October 2011, men have become more supportive of gay marriage. In October, 47 percent of men supported legalization while 45 percent opposed. Today, a majority of men – 52 percent – are in favor, while 40 percent oppose. Women remain more supportive, 57 percent to 37 percent, similar to the October poll.

“Support for legalizing same-sex marriage runs deep in New Jersey, with limited exceptions,” said Redlawsk. “And while there is no doubt that many of those who oppose the idea feel strongly about it, most New Jerseyans in most demographic groups think it is time to make same-sex marriage legal.”

Opposition to Gay Marriage

Strong opposition to gay marriage does remain within certain groups. Voters who are born-again or evangelical Christians are strongly opposed, with 7 in 10 against legalizing gay marriage. Conservative voters express opposition in similar numbers with 69 percent opposed and 24 percent in favor. Also against gay marriage are voters 65 years old and older, of whom 55 percent oppose and only 37 percent support legalization. Not surprisingly, only 35 percent of Republican voters support the measure, while 58 percent oppose it. And while white voters are in favor by 56 percent to 36 percent, Black voters feel differently with half opposing and 43 percent supporting legalizing gay marriage.

“Opposition to gay marriage is driven primarily by strong religious beliefs for many of its opponents, somewhat independently of political beliefs,” noted Redlawsk. “In particular, Black voters, who reliably vote Democratic, break with the large majority of the party in their opposition, reflecting a more conservative outlook on key social issues like same-sex marriage.”

Polarization as the Debate has Developed

Today’s results suggest ideological polarization on the issue since October. During the past four months moderates have become more supportive, moving from 49 percent support to 55 percent today. Liberals have also shifted even more in favor, up from 75 percent to 81 percent. Conservative voters, on the other hand, have become even more opposed, dropping by 8 points from 32 percent support in October to 24 percent today. The gap between liberals and conservative on legalizing gay marriage has increased from 43 points to 57 points over just a few months.

“As the Democrats in the legislature focus on same-sex marriage, voters have responded by becoming more polarized on the issue,” said Redlawsk. “Debates like this focus public opinion on the two opposite positions, moving apart those even slightly inclined one way or the other. Polarization reflects voters paying more attention and better aligning their own position on the issue with their overall ideological preferences.”

A New Semester in the World of Academic Survey Research

Following is a post from our new social media intern, here at the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll (and Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling.) Aaron Hyndman will be working to push us further into the social media age. Meanwhile watch for us to become more active on Facebook and Twitter (@EagletonPoll) among other things. Also, watch for new polling results soon – there is a lot going on here in New Jersey!

So here’s Aaron:

A New Social Media Intern at the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll

Hi everyone! My name is Aaron Hyndman, and I’ll be taking over this semester as the Social Media and PR Intern for Eagleton CPIP.   I’m an undergraduate at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, New Jersey, and I’m majoring in Communication with a minor in Public Policy. Currently, I’m on track to finish my coursework in December of this year. I’m also involved in an independent research project for my Senior Honors Thesis, using link analysis and survey methods to measure the effects of various language and information structures on the growth of online political networks. Upon completion of my undergraduate work, my goal is a career in public relations or media consulting, in addition to earning a master’s degree in public relations and organizational communication, or perhaps public administration.

I’m a huge soccer fan and enjoy playing soccer, tennis, and skiing. Of course, I also have a strong interest in politics. I’m a big fan of ideas and an even bigger fan of innovative approaches and styles of communicating them.  To me, social media is the greatest achievement we’ve ever had in allowing the facilitation of interactive, transactional, and symmetrical communication between organizations and the people who have a vested interest in them.  Basically, social media has made the notion of reaching out to people in a true two-way dialogue more of a reality than it’s ever been.  I’m definitely looking forward to the opportunity to connect people with all the important and fascinating things Eagleton is doing this year, and I hope my daily postings become the start of some great conversations this semester.

On the NJ Gender Gap

As we begin the new semester here at Eagleton, we have some interesting gender gap numbers for the presidential race, courtesy of an analysis done by one of our undergraduate students, Francesca Conti. Francesca interned with us this past fall semester, serving as our communications intern. She did a great job, and is now off on a study abroad opportunity for Spring 2012.

 

On the NJ Gender Gap in 2012

With the GOP primaries taking place at the 2012 Election fast approaching, candidates are interested in receiving support wherever they can find it.  As candidates vie for the support from all groups, one particular focus is on female voters. And while we tend to think of politics as male-dominated, which it is, women are in fact often a majority of those who cast a vote. Women tend to turn out at a higher rate than men, all else equal. And with the Republican field now down to all men, this seems particularly interesting. So how are the candidates (both Republicans and President Obama) doing on this score?

The Gender Gap has been described as difference in the percentage of women and the percentage of men voting for a given candidate (CAWP). Our last New Jersey survey on the Republican nomination (in December) asked Republican and leaning-Republican voters to tell us who they support for the nomination to run against President Obama. Overall, 28 percent named Mitt Romney, while 20 percent supported Newt Gingrich. Ron Paul was a distant third at 5 percent, while 38 percent did not name a candidate.

But gender seems to play a role even in the Republican primary. One third of men supported Romney, compared to only 21 percent of women. Similar effects show up for Gingrich, with 21 percent of men but 15 percent of women. Ron Paul, on the other hand, gets only 4 percent from men, but 8 percent from women.

What accounts for these differences among Republican men and women? Well nearly half of Republican women did not name any candidate they support at this point, compared to 28 percent of men. At this stage in the race, Republican women in New Jersey are simply not engaged by most of the candidates to the same extent as men.

Turning to the general election, we asked all voters about three match-ups: Obama vs. Romney, Obama vs. Paul, and Obama vs. Gingrich. Romney does best among NJ women, but it is still a pretty poor showing: 55 percent said they would vote for President Obama, while 25 percent chose Romney. The race is much tighter among men, with 46 percent supporting Obama and 39 percent Romney. Similar gaps exist for Ron Paul (Women: 56 percent Obama, 20 percent Paul; Men: 43 percent Obama, 39 percent Paul) and Newt Gingrich (Women: 58 percent Obama, 21 percent Gingrich; Men: 49 percent Obama, 34 percent Gingrich.)

These results see a clear and persistent gender gap in the campaign so far. The gap exists among Republican women, with nearly half having no preference yet, and among all women in the general election. No matter who is the frontrunner for the Republicans, at this time the majority of NJ women voters would choose President Obama. This is not really surprising, as the Democratic coalition is heavily tilted toward women and minority voters. It appears that it will be difficult for Republican candidates to capture the NJ women’s vote, with Romney losing women by 30 points, Paul by 36 points, and Gingrich by 37 points. To win New Jersey any Republican candidate is going to have to do better than that among women voters.

More perspectives from our students

As with most academic institutions, we have been on break here at Eagleton during the holidays. We hope our readers have had a great holiday season and have started the new year on the right foot. And we’ll be back soon with more polling results.

As we get ready to start the semester next week, we want to provide some more perspectives from the undergraduate students working with the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. As an academic survey center, one of our primary missions is teaching, and as part of that mission we have a group of undergraduate interns who work with us on various aspects of our polling operations.

Today’s post comes from Abdul Rehman Khan, who is a Rutgers undergraduate and an Aresty Research Assistant for us this year. Abdul has been working on a number of internal initiatives for us. He wrote the following post based on his perspective looking at some of our polling numbers as they came in over the semester.

 

Minority Rights through Democracy and Polling
Abdul Rehman Khan

 Through my political science classes, the concept of democracy has been a very elusive and abstract ideal.  The concept varies even among political philosophers.  Many of us in America assume democratic ideals are met by a citizen’s ability to participate and contest issues and elections. Once the election is done however, we seem to be told the the opinions and rights of the majority ought be the decisions for all.  Gerald F. Gaus, in Contemporary Theories of Liberalism writes, “According to Thomas Jefferson, in collections of people self-government requires following a collection of wills expressed by the majority.”  We are raised in this type of thinking of majority-rule system—this is what democracy means to us and to our founding fathers.  Consequently, with this mindset, polling allows for democratic ideals to become more tangible—whether we are polling immediately for elections results, polling for changes in opinions, or polling in my 5^th grade classroom to see if we wanted to play kickball before or after lunch.  In this sense, polling allows for a political theory to become quantifiable.

Yet, a democracy is far more significant than a majority-rule system.  The very essence of a democracy lies in its ability to defend the rights and opinions of the minority against the rights or opinions of the majority.   Is the notion of polling then invalidated; why do we poll?  Is the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, and every other survey research institution, simply a larger and more complicated version of that 5^th grade classroom?

At first, this is what I thought.  But while working with the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, I realized most of the time spent in tallying up the results of a poll seems to me to  go in the accurate counting of the minority positions.  Subsequently, most of the time goes into noticing how minority positions have changed.  Polling is often pointless if we’re just looking at the majority vote—more often than not, we know it.  Polling becomes interesting when we see how the minority vote has become stronger or has given way to a majority opinion.  Majority opinions and groups may have been minorities at one point or another; polling tracks this.  True, polling is used by majorities to justify their position, but it is just as significant for minorities to view their relative significance and change mainstream support.  Therefore, the fault of this mindset lies not within the implication of our poll, but within our own thinking.

Critics of polling like Iris Young write a democracy should be a “maximum expression of interests, opinions, and perspectives relevant to the problems or issues for which a public seeks solutions.”  Young says that democracy should not be an aggregative addition of preferences.  However from polling we are able to note the various differences in expression of opinions.  Polling is always the first step and polling gives the minority just as much justification as the majority.  Polling therefore becomes crucial for minorities so that their opinions can be expressed.  We ought to not blame the pervasiveness of polling in our society for our simplistic thinking of a democracy.  Instead, we should augment our own thinking, viewing a democracy not from the light of the majority but from  the light of a minority.  With this mindset, polling becomes much more noteworthy.  Polling is what you make of it and in whichever way you view a democracy.

Thus, polling allows for democratic ideals to become tangible.  More significantly, however, polling can in its own right, allow for different notions of democracy.  It is, then, our decision to choose the one we feel is right.

 

New Rutgers-Eagleton Poll: Romney continues to lead GOP in NJ; Obama strong against all top Republicans

Today we have a quick pre-holiday poll on the 2012 presidential race in New Jersey. We didn’t ask a whole lot – just some straight forward questions on Republican nominee preference (for registered Republicans and independents leaning Republican) and three head-to-heads with Obama and the three national GOP leaders: Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul.

The results may seem surprising. First, nearly 40 percent of NJ GOP voters cannot name the candidate they prefer to be their nominee. Now, to be fair, we ask a hard question. We don’t give people a list of candidates, instead we ask them to name the candidate they prefer. Recalling a name is harder than recognizing one, so the high don’t knows/no preference is partly due to that. But it also is a sign that Republicans remain uncertain about where they want to go. Romney continues to lead (28 percent) among those who have a preference, and Gingrich comes in a decent second (20 percent). After that, Ron Paul is third, but so far behind in mentions (5 percent) that he’s barely there. And no other candidate – including Rick Perry – is named by even 3 percent.

More surprising, given how week we have found President Obama’s ratings and re-elect in previous months, is that he easily beats any of the the Republicans in New Jersey. Romney does best, and is down 19 points. The others are even further behind. It’s only in Northwest New Jersey (the “exurbs”) that any of the Republicans beat Obama, everywhere else he holds a strong lead. Is this because he’s so loved in NJ? Don’t think so. It’s mostly due to 1) the unsettled Republican race; Republicans are currently less unified behind Republican candidates than Democrats are behind Obama, and independents are leaning strongly Obama, and 2) no real general election campaign has happened yet, meaning voters are not really focused on the election. This typically gives incumbents some advantage in early polling. We would certainly expect this to tighten up once the Republicans have a nominee and the general election campaign begins. Still, NJ is a pretty Democratic state, and these numbers reflect that.

A PDF of the full release with questions and tables is available here. The full text of the release follows.

RUTGERS-EAGLETON POLL: ROMNEY STILL PREFERRED BY NEW JERSEY GOP; OBAMA LOOKS STRONG AGAINST TOP REPUBLICAN CHALLENGERS

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – New Jersey Republican voters continue to make former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney their candidate of choice against President Barack Obama, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. While former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has built a following here, registered Republicans and independents leaning Republican prefer Romney by 28 percent to 20 percent over Gingrich.

Texas Congressman Ron Paul runs a distant third at 5 percent; no other candidate gets more than 3 percent. More than one-third (37 percent) have no preference.

The poll also finds that Obama holds a strong lead in head-to-head matchups with all three GOP front-runners. While Romney does best, Obama leads him by 51 percent to 32 percent. The president doubles Gingrich, 54 percent to 27 percent, while Paul loses, 50 percent to 29 percent.

“New Jersey reflects the rise of Newt Gingrich seen elsewhere, though he has not managed to dethrone Mitt Romney, who has led in every poll we’ve done,” said poll director David Redlawsk, a professor of political science at Rutgers University. “At the same time, Romney has yet to break out of the 20s in our open-ended question and more than a third have no preference at all. Gingrich is just the latest in a series of threats, which included Sarah Palin and Chris Christie early in the year, and Rick Perry and Herman Cain more recently.”

Results are from 823 registered voters drawn from a survey of 907 adult respondents conducted from Dec. 15-18. The registered voter sample has a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. The subsample of 260 registered Republicans and independents leaning Republican has a margin of error of +/- 6.0 percentage points.

The Republican race in New Jersey

Despite more than a dozen nationally televised GOP debates so far, and extensive news coverage of the campaign, 38 percent of Garden State Republicans are still not sure who to support. Although Romney has led in every Rutgers-Eagleton Poll this year, he has not been able to break away, even with Gov. Chris Christie’s vocal support.

Although Romney leads among Republican voters, Gingrich ties the former Mass. governor among conservatives, at 26 percent. Moderate Republicans prefer Romney to Gingrich by 2 to 1 (28 percent to 14 percent), but are also much more likely to be unable to name any candidate. Almost half (46 percent) are unsure of their final choice compared to 30 percent of conservatives. Women are also more likely than men to be unsure: 49 percent cannot name a preferred candidate, versus 29 percent of men. Twenty-one percent of women support Romney, 15 percent Gingrich, and 8 percent name Paul. Among men, 33 percent prefer Romney, 24 percent Gingrich, and 4 percent Paul.

“While Governor Christie has had success getting New Jersey Republican to line up behind Romney, rank-and-file voters are not really there yet,” said Redlawsk. “In spite of leading throughout 2011, Romney has yet to break 30 percent support. Most Republicans seem to be casting about for alternatives, if they can name any candidate at all.”

Despite lukewarm ratings, Obama strong in head-to-heads

Perhaps benefiting from an unsettled GOP race, Obama appears to have a solid lead about 11 months before Election Day. While a November Rutgers-Eagleton Poll found only 32 percent of New Jersey voters gave Obama’s job performance an “A” or “B,” the president easily leads the top three Republican contenders. Romney does best (losing by 19 points) and Gingrich worst (down 27 points). Paul trails Obama by 21 points.

Two keys to the president’s strength are that Democrats are nearly united behind him and independents are currently swinging his way. More than eight in 10 Democrats support Obama against any of his challengers. Republican voters are less unified, except in the case of a Romney-Obama race. Paul does best among independents in losing to Obama by 13 points. Romney falls 15 points short and Gingrich trails by 24 points among independents.

“Several months ago we asked whether Obama deserves to be re-elected, and just about as many voters said no as yes,” said Redlawsk. “But faced with specific challengers, voters can focus, and they now prefer to re-elect the president. Voters are not very thrilled with Obama’s job performance, but they like him better than the Republican contenders.”

The gender gap is alive and well in New Jersey, Redlawsk noted. Obama does extremely well with women, leading Romney by 30 points, Paul by 36 points and Gingrich by 37 points. The Republicans do much better among men, where Paul trails by four points, Romney by seven points and Gingrich by 15 points.

Romney holds his own among white voters; at 41 percent, he lags Obama by one percentage point. Gingrich and Paul do noticeably worse with whites: Gingrich trails, 46 percent to 35 percent, and Paul trails, 42 percent to 35 percent. Obama continues to win about 90 percent of African-American voters.

Republican candidates do best in the northwestern part of the state, with Romney and Gingrich both leading Obama in exurban New Jersey, while Paul draws even. Obama is strongest in north Jersey urban areas, leading all Republicans by about 40 points or more, though he leads in all parts of the state outside northwestern New Jersey.

“Obama’s strength reflects that New Jersey is still a Democratic state when it comes to presidential elections,” said Redlawsk. “Overcoming that for any Republican may be tough. Of course, the election is nearly year away, and New Jersey voters have yet to become engaged in it. Once the Republicans have a nominee, we should expect to see things tighten.”